关键词： Zero tillage   Climate change   APSIM model   Wheat yield   Soil organic carbon   Water use efficiency   Soil-water erosion  

摘要： Several circulation models are forecasting climate changes in the Mediterranean region. Accordingly, it is expected that water scarcity in the region will be higher with drastic shifts of hydrological and erosive watershed responses. In Tunisia, wheat yields have been variable over the years and arc lower than the potential yields. In response, the adoption of conservation agriculture (CA), introduced into Tunisia in 1999 to help adaptation to climate change, has resulted in a substantial reduction in agricultural productivity. CA areas increased from 52 ha in 1999 to 14,000 ha in 2015. Using a modelling approach, the present paper evaluates the potential of CA to adapt wheat-based-systems to climate change in Tunisia. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was used to predict the effect of tillage (conventional tillage [CT] vs. zero-tillage [ZT] and soil residue retention [ZT-RR]) on wheat productivity and soil fertility. Two contrasting locations in Tunisia were studied;one semi-arid (Kef) and one sub-humid (Bizerte). Results showed that the sustainable production of durum wheat under climate change conditions in Tunisia is possible through the adoption of CA practices (ZT and ZT-RR) in both sub-humid and semi-arid areas. In fact, mulching (residue retention) is more effective than CT (under semi-arid and sub-humid conditions) in enhancing wheat yield (15%), water use efficiency (18% and 13%) and soil organic carbon accumulation (0.13 t ha(-1) year(-1) and 0.18 t ha(-1) year(-1)). It is also more effective for soil resilience - preventing water erosion (1.7 t ha(-1) year(-1) and 4.6 t ha(-1) year(-1) of soil loss). The present study allowed identification of 260,000 ha as priority areas for CA adoption;this represent one-third of the total cereal area in Tunisia. Appropriate evaluation of the benefits of CA on sustainable agricultural intensification would provide more arguments for effectively supporting CA adoption in Tunisia. (C) 2019 Elsev

关键词： 农业部长   非洲农业   人口快速增长   气候变化影响   里尔   全球气候变化   适应气候变化   部长级会议  

摘要： 在第二届非洲农业适应气候变化部长级会议上,30多位非洲国家农业部长签署了关于非洲农业适应气候变化问题的紧急而关键的《本杰里尔宣言》,推动将非洲农业适应气候变化作为下次全球气候变化大会的关键议题。非洲人口快速增长,受气候变化影响,农业产量在不断下降。全球受气候变化影响最严重的国家6/10在非洲。但全球气候变化基金仅5%用在非洲。

关键词： APEC   农业   气候变化   可持续发展  

摘要： 全球气候变化正在对全球农业生产产生各种影响,对世界粮食安全造成威胁。本文全面分析了气候变化与农业生产之间的交互作用,评价了其影响程度,探索了农业适应和减缓气候变化可行方案对实现世界粮食安全具有重要意义。本文还结合APEC的最佳实践,提出了农业生产适应和减缓气候变化的具体措施及建议,并对未来发展进行了展望。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   丹凤县  

摘要： 本文利用丹凤县气象局提供的1981~2018年逐年平均气温、降水量资料,对丹凤县近38年气候变化特征进行分析,探讨了气候变化对农业生产的影响,并给出了一些农业生产中的建议,以确保农作物高产丰收,增强农民的经济收入水平。

关键词： Climate change   Temperature   Agriculture   International migration  

摘要： Migration and climate change are two of the most important challenges the world currently faces. They are connected as climate change may stimulate or hinder migration. One of the sectors strongly affected by climate change is agriculture, which is the source of income for most of the world's poor. Climate change may affect agricultural productivity and hence migration because of its impact on average temperatures and rainfall and because it increases the frequency and intensity of weather shocks. In this paper we use data on 108 countries from 1960 to 2010 to analyze the relationship between weather variations, changes in agricultural productivity and international migration. We find that negative shocks to agricultural productivity caused by climate fluctuations significantly increase emigration from developing countries, an especially strong impact in poor countries but less so in middle income countries. These results are robust to the definitions of the poor country sample, and to several checks and alternative explanations suggested by the literature. Importantly, our results point to a causal interpretation of the agricultural channel to explain the climate change-migration nexus.

关键词： climate change   drought   hydrology   SWAT model   Srepok River Basin  

摘要： The objective of this study is to assess future changes in meteorological, hydrology and agricultural droughts under the impact of changing climate in the Srepok River Basin, a subbasin of LMB, using three drought indices;standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI). The well-calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used as a simulation tool to estimate the features of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts. The climate data for the 2016-2040 period is obtained from four different regional climate models;HadGEM3-RA, SNU-MM5, RegCM4 and YSU-RSM, which are downscaled from the HadGEM2-AO GCM. The results show that the severity, duration and frequency of droughts are predicted to increase in the near future for this region. Moreover, the meteorological drought is less sensitive to climate change than the hydrological and agricultural droughts;however, it has a stronger correlation with the hydrological and agricultural droughts as the accumulation period is increased. These findings may be useful for water resources management and future planning for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change impact in the Srepok River Basin.

关键词： 肥东县   气候变化   农业  

摘要： 本文对肥东县近50年气温、降水、日照的气象资料,运用线性拟合法和偏值法进行气候变化分析。结果表明:在过去的50年间,肥东县气温呈上升趋势,变化率为0.28℃/10a;日照呈下降趋势,变化率为102.9h/10a;降水量波动起伏,总体趋势平稳,进而分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响,并提出了相应的农业生产措施。

关键词： 气候变化   气象灾害   防御措施   陕西富平  

摘要： 本文采用富平县1973—2018年的地面气象观测资料进行统计分析。结果表明,富平县的气候发生了明显变化,尤其是气温逐年上升明显、年降水量下降、年日照时数下降、年无霜期天数增加、结冰期缩短、区域性强降水明显;干旱、短时大风、暴雨、冰雹、低温冻害、区域性强降水等气象灾害对富平县农业生产的影响尤为突出。为此,根据气候变化规律提供针对性建议,以减轻各种气象灾害对富平县农业生产的影响。

关键词： Adaptation   Agricultural modelling   Climate change   Research challenges  

摘要： Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers' views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

关键词： climate change impacts   water resources   agriculture   water accounting   hydrological data   water scarcity and drought  

摘要： European agriculture and water policies require accurate information on climate change impacts on available water resources. Water accounting, that is a standardized documentation of data on water resources, is a useful tool to provide this information. Pan-European data on climate impacts do not recognize local anthropogenic interventions in the water cycle. Most European river basins have a specific toolset that is understood and used by local experts and stakeholders. However, these local tools are not versatile. Thus, there is a need for a common approach that can be understood by multi-fold users to quantify impact indicators based on local data and that can be used to synthesize information at the European level. Then, policies can be designed with the confidence that underlying data are backed-up by local context and expert knowledge. This work presents a simplified water accounting framework that allows for a standardized examination of climate impacts on water resource availability and use across multiple basins. The framework is applied to five different river basins across Europe. Several indicators are extracted that explicitly describe green water fluxes versus blue water fluxes and impacts on agriculture. The examples show that a simplified water accounting framework can be used to synthesize basin-level information on climate change impacts which can support policymaking on climate adaptation, water resources and agriculture.