关键词： 冬季气候资源   趋势变化   设施农业   Mann-Kendall检验  

摘要： 利用吉林市气象台的气象观测资料建立时间序列,采用数理统计、趋势相关分析和MannKendall突变检验,对吉林的气温、降水和日照年序列进行了分析,以揭示吉林气候变化特征及其突变事实。结果表明,近57年来因气候变暖,吉林市冬季温度升高,气候要素变化稳定性较差。冬季气温升高、日照减少、降水量增加、连续阴雨天数增多等气象要素不稳定变化是吉林冬季气候特点,这种气候特点对设施农业影响较大。

关键词： 气候变化   智慧农业   可持续性   固碳   减排   指标  

摘要： 日益加剧的全球气候变化将对农业带来巨大威胁,而高强度的农业利用在提供生态系统服务的同时也产生巨大的环境风险,如何在气候变化背景下维持农业生产的可持续性是当前倡导的气候变化智慧型农业的核心内容。气候变化智慧型农业是通过一系列合理管理实现气候变化背景下维持甚至增强生态系统服务功能并减少生态环境负面影响的农业经营系统。土壤通过碳-氮(养分)和水循环以及生物调控作用,影响农田系统供给生态服务的能力和农业生产的生态环境效应,而这些作用又受气候变化的影响。因此,构建气候变化智慧型土壤是实现气候变化智慧型农业的重要前提。为了评价和筛选气候变化智慧型农业的技术途径,需要发展表征和量化农田生态系统服务及生态环境效应的方法学,建立生态系统服务和生态环境影响指标体系,并通过集成分析形成具有可比性的综合量化指标,通过实施案例的综合效应分析比较识别应对气候变化的最优模式。其中,生命全周期评价法、多元集成分析、生态系统模型将是气候变化智慧型农业计量的基本方法学工具。发展从田块到区域尺度的整合研究,采用最新的气候变化情景数据和高精度农田生态系统数据探索气候变化智慧型农业的实现途径是当前研究的重要方向。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   应对措施  

摘要： 农业发展影响着国民经济的进步,而气候决定了农业生产的成效,不利的天气会给农业带来一系列自然灾害,从而造成农业生产的波动。如此不仅会危及粮食安全,又会影响到社会经济的进步以及社会整体性可持续发展。基于此,围绕气候变化对农业生产影响的区域差异问题展开讨论。

关键词： 小麦   玉米   轮作制度   管理优化   气候变化  

摘要： 随着全球变暖形势加剧，农业生产面临前所未有的挑战，如何提高生产力的同时降低环境风险是目前中国农业亟待解决的问题。华北平原是我国小麦与玉米的重要生产基地，因此探索华北平原麦玉轮作系统的调整与管理优化，对指导该区农业生产，实现气候智慧型农业具有重要意义。为深刻理解与预测气候变化对华北平原农业生产与粮食安全的影响，本研究通过多元统计分析与APSIM模型模拟相结合的方法分析1981-2009年气候变化对华北平原麦玉轮作系统的影响，优化播种期、田间管理措施与品种更新，并提出最优麦玉轮作系统种植管理方案，评价未来华北平原可替代农业种植系统与耕作方式，为气候智慧型农业提供理论基础。分析2000-2016年华北平原种植结构变化对碳足迹、环境效益与经济效益的影响。主要结论如下:\n (1)气候变暖导致研究区内农作物播种期均推迟。随着气候变暖，生长加速，生育期缩短。但由于品种更新，冬小麦与夏玉米的开花期到成熟期所用时间均增加，产量也显著增加。研究区内麦玉轮作系统物候与产量变化取决于气候变化、品种更新以及田间管理等方面的共同作用。\n (2)播种期是影响作物物候的主要因素，适当推迟播种期可减缓气候变暖带来的负作用。麦玉轮作系统的最佳夏玉米播种期为6月17日至6月29日，相应的冬小麦播种期为玉米收获后15天内。华北平原麦玉轮作系统的最优播种密度为550株/平方米（冬小麦）与8株/平方米（夏玉米）。最优灌溉与施氮量为240mm（冬小麦）与330-390kgN ha-1yr-1(冬小麦150-210kgN ha-1yr-1，夏玉米180kgN ha-1yr-1)时，麦玉轮作系统可维持更高的生产力与资源利用效率，同时减少温室气体的排放。比当前华北平原麦玉轮作系统平均灌溉施氮投入量减少40％。冬小麦与夏玉米的理想品种需具备长灌浆期与高灌浆速率的特征，从而充分利用热资源，加快光合作用积累有机物，大大提高作物产量。\n (3)不同可替代农业种植系统中，优化后的麦玉轮作系统是华北平原农业适应气候变化的最佳选择。三种农作物中，小麦产量高但资源消耗大，玉米是将产量与环境效益权衡最好的作物，而大豆虽产量低但所需氮投入少，可有效降低环境成本。针对水资源短缺、环境污染、粮食生产安全等特定区域问题，应选择适宜当地发展的种植系统以及农作物。另外，保护性耕作在降低温室气体排放，增加土壤有机碳，减缓气候变暖方面具有显著优势。为加快发展气候智慧型农业，选取适宜的种植系统与保护性耕作结合，在保证农业种植系统高产的基础上，可有效降低农业投入与环境风险，减少温室气体排放。\n (4)2000-2016年间，玉米与蔬菜种植面积增长，小麦与油料作物种植面积下降。蔬菜的碳足迹最大，油料作物、小麦次之，玉米最小，这主要由作物产量与农业投入决定，其中化肥、农膜与灌溉用电是主要影响因子。种植结构调整可有效减少地下水消耗与氮肥投入，降低温室气体排放与碳足迹，提高水肥利用效率与经济产值。目前华北平原种植结构的变化基本符合气候智慧型农业的发展方向。未来应根据不同省市的气候特征、资源分布以及经济发展，选择适宜当地发展的农作物种植与田间管理，为实现气候智慧型农业奠定实践基础。

关键词： climate change   agricultural management   non-point pollutants   SWAT   Kaidu River Basin   water quality  

摘要： In the context of climate change and over-exploitation of water resources, water shortage and water pollution in arid regions have become major constraints to local sustainable development. In this study, we established a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for simulating non-point source (NPS) pollution in the irrigation area of the lower reaches of the Kaidu River Basin, based on spatial and attribute data (2010-2014). Four climate change scenarios (2040-2044) and two agricultural management scenarios were input into the SWAT model to quantify the effects of climate change and agricultural management on solvents and solutes of pollutants in the study area. The simulation results show that compared to the reference period (2010-2014), with a decline in streamflow from the Kaidu River, the average annual irrigation water consumption is expected to decrease by 3.84x10⁸ m³ or 8.87% during the period of 2040-2044. Meanwhile, the average annual total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in agricultural drainage canals will also increase by 10.50% and 30.06%, respectively. Through the implementation of agricultural management measures, the TN and TP in farmland drainage can be reduced by 14.49% and 16.03%, respectively, reaching 661.56 t and 12.99 t, accordingly, and the increasing water efficiency can save irrigation water consumption by 4.41 x10⁸ m³ or 4.77%. The results indicate that although the water environment in the irrigation area in the lower reaches of the Kaidu River Basin is deteriorating, the situation can be improved by implementing appropriate agricultural production methods. The quantitative analysis results of NPS pollutants in the irrigation area under different scenarios provide a scientific basis for water environmental management in the Kaidu River Basin.

关键词： 气候变化   Mann-Kendall检验   农业生产  

摘要： 本文利用图们市1976~2018年气温、降水量和日照数据,分析了图们市近43年气候变化特征及趋势,为农业生产提供科学依据。结果表明:图们市近43年气温升高趋势明显,降水波动大,日照时长显著增加,在弱降水时期有利于水稻的种植。

关键词： 农业气象灾害   病虫害   影响  

摘要： 随着各领域的不断提高,所面临的环境变化风险逐渐加剧,农业生产受到气候变化的影响较为严重,在这种情况下出现气象灾害以及病虫害的情况也在逐渐加剧。因此,研究气候变化对农业气象灾害及病虫害产生的影响,对我国农业发展具有重要意义。

关键词： Risk management   Attribution bias   Market risk   Climate change   Agriculture adaptation   Rural formers households  

摘要： Whereas adaptations to climate change in the agriculture sector are well studied, non-climatic drivers thereof are considerably less explored. This is particularly true for market related factors. Every change in farming practices is attributed to climate change. This article presents new evidence of how adaptations to market risks may be incorrectly attributed to climate change risk because of causal attribution bias emerging from poorly structured survey instrument and response inducing questions. Through a quasi-experiment administered on 400 rural fanning households from four districts of Pakistan, we demonstrate that when farmers are not sensitized about climate change prior to questions on adaptations they assign market factors such as availability of new market opportunities, improved purchasing power, and net profitability as major reason for changes in sowing date, growing new crop verity and use of fertilizers. To be exact, less than 2% and 1% of farmers indicated climate change as the reason behind the change in crop variety and use of fertilizers respectively. Similarly, only 10% of farmers associated late sowing with climate change. Findings of the study imply a stronger role of the market-related factors in changing agricultural practices over the time asking policymakers to design better market-based interventions and incentives for increasing the adaptation in the agriculture community. Findings have also implications for mix method research and can be generalized for all research fields involving survey design.

关键词： Agricultural transition   Climate change   Collapse   Holocene   Hunter-gatherers   Mega-greenhouse effect  

摘要： For most of human history, about 300,000 years, we lived as hunter gatherers in sustainable, egalitarian communities of a few dozen people. Human life on Earth, and our place within the planet's biophysical systems, changed dramatically with the Holocene, a geological epoch that began about 12,000 years ago. An unprecedented combination of climate stability and warm temperatures made possible a greater dependence on wild grains in several parts of the world. Over the next several thousand years, this dependence led to agriculture and large-scale state societies. These societies show a common pattern of expansion and collapse. Industrial civilization began a few hundred years ago when fossil fuel propelled the human economy to a new level of size and complexity. This change brought many benefits, but it also gave us the existential crisis of global climate change. Climate models indicate that the Earth could warm by 3 degrees C-4 degrees C by the year 2100 and eventually by as much as 8 degrees C or more. This would return the planet to the unstable climate conditions of the Pleistocene when agriculture was impossible. Policies could be enacted to make the transition away from industrial civilization less devastating and improve the prospects of our hunter-gatherer descendants. These include aggressive policies to reduce the long-run extremes of climate change, aggressive population reduction policies, rewilding, and protecting the world's remaining indigenous cultures.

关键词： Climate change  

摘要： Gender mainstreaming was acknowledged as an indispensable strategy for achieving gender equality at the 1995 Beijing Platform for Action. Since then, governments have made substantial efforts in developing gender-responsive policies and implementation strategies. The advent of climate change and its effects, which have continued to impact rural livelihoods and especially food security, demands that gender mainstreaming efforts are accelerated. Effective gender mainstreaming requires that gender is sufficiently integrated in policies, development plans, and implementation strategies, supported by budgetary allocations. This study analyzes the extent of gender integration in agricultural and natural resource policies in Uganda and Tanzania, and how gender is budgeted for in implementation plans at district and lower governance levels. A total of 155 policy documents, development plans, and annual action plans from national, district, and sub-county/ward levels were reviewed. In addition, district and sub-county budgets for four consecutive financial years from 2012/2013 to 2015/2016 were analyzed for gender allocations. Results show that whereas there is increasing gender responsiveness in both countries, (i) gender issues are still interpreted as "women issues," (ii) there is disharmony in gender mainstreaming across governance levels, (iii) budgeting for gender is not yet fully embraced by governments, (iii) allocations to gender at sub-national level remain inconsistently low with sharp differences between estimated and actual budgets, and (iv) gender activities do not address any structural inequalities. We propose approaches that increase capacity to develop and execute gender-responsive policies, implementation plans, and budgets.