关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   应对措施  

摘要： 农业发展影响着国民经济的进步,而气候决定了农业生产的成效,不利的天气会给农业带来一系列自然灾害,从而造成农业生产的波动。如此不仅会危及粮食安全,又会影响到社会经济的进步以及社会整体性可持续发展。基于此,围绕气候变化对农业生产影响的区域差异问题展开讨论。

关键词： 小麦   玉米   轮作制度   管理优化   气候变化  

摘要： 随着全球变暖形势加剧，农业生产面临前所未有的挑战，如何提高生产力的同时降低环境风险是目前中国农业亟待解决的问题。华北平原是我国小麦与玉米的重要生产基地，因此探索华北平原麦玉轮作系统的调整与管理优化，对指导该区农业生产，实现气候智慧型农业具有重要意义。为深刻理解与预测气候变化对华北平原农业生产与粮食安全的影响，本研究通过多元统计分析与APSIM模型模拟相结合的方法分析1981-2009年气候变化对华北平原麦玉轮作系统的影响，优化播种期、田间管理措施与品种更新，并提出最优麦玉轮作系统种植管理方案，评价未来华北平原可替代农业种植系统与耕作方式，为气候智慧型农业提供理论基础。分析2000-2016年华北平原种植结构变化对碳足迹、环境效益与经济效益的影响。主要结论如下:\n (1)气候变暖导致研究区内农作物播种期均推迟。随着气候变暖，生长加速，生育期缩短。但由于品种更新，冬小麦与夏玉米的开花期到成熟期所用时间均增加，产量也显著增加。研究区内麦玉轮作系统物候与产量变化取决于气候变化、品种更新以及田间管理等方面的共同作用。\n (2)播种期是影响作物物候的主要因素，适当推迟播种期可减缓气候变暖带来的负作用。麦玉轮作系统的最佳夏玉米播种期为6月17日至6月29日，相应的冬小麦播种期为玉米收获后15天内。华北平原麦玉轮作系统的最优播种密度为550株/平方米（冬小麦）与8株/平方米（夏玉米）。最优灌溉与施氮量为240mm（冬小麦）与330-390kgN ha-1yr-1(冬小麦150-210kgN ha-1yr-1，夏玉米180kgN ha-1yr-1)时，麦玉轮作系统可维持更高的生产力与资源利用效率，同时减少温室气体的排放。比当前华北平原麦玉轮作系统平均灌溉施氮投入量减少40％。冬小麦与夏玉米的理想品种需具备长灌浆期与高灌浆速率的特征，从而充分利用热资源，加快光合作用积累有机物，大大提高作物产量。\n (3)不同可替代农业种植系统中，优化后的麦玉轮作系统是华北平原农业适应气候变化的最佳选择。三种农作物中，小麦产量高但资源消耗大，玉米是将产量与环境效益权衡最好的作物，而大豆虽产量低但所需氮投入少，可有效降低环境成本。针对水资源短缺、环境污染、粮食生产安全等特定区域问题，应选择适宜当地发展的种植系统以及农作物。另外，保护性耕作在降低温室气体排放，增加土壤有机碳，减缓气候变暖方面具有显著优势。为加快发展气候智慧型农业，选取适宜的种植系统与保护性耕作结合，在保证农业种植系统高产的基础上，可有效降低农业投入与环境风险，减少温室气体排放。\n (4)2000-2016年间，玉米与蔬菜种植面积增长，小麦与油料作物种植面积下降。蔬菜的碳足迹最大，油料作物、小麦次之，玉米最小，这主要由作物产量与农业投入决定，其中化肥、农膜与灌溉用电是主要影响因子。种植结构调整可有效减少地下水消耗与氮肥投入，降低温室气体排放与碳足迹，提高水肥利用效率与经济产值。目前华北平原种植结构的变化基本符合气候智慧型农业的发展方向。未来应根据不同省市的气候特征、资源分布以及经济发展，选择适宜当地发展的农作物种植与田间管理，为实现气候智慧型农业奠定实践基础。

关键词： climate change   agricultural management   non-point pollutants   SWAT   Kaidu River Basin   water quality  

摘要： In the context of climate change and over-exploitation of water resources, water shortage and water pollution in arid regions have become major constraints to local sustainable development. In this study, we established a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for simulating non-point source (NPS) pollution in the irrigation area of the lower reaches of the Kaidu River Basin, based on spatial and attribute data (2010-2014). Four climate change scenarios (2040-2044) and two agricultural management scenarios were input into the SWAT model to quantify the effects of climate change and agricultural management on solvents and solutes of pollutants in the study area. The simulation results show that compared to the reference period (2010-2014), with a decline in streamflow from the Kaidu River, the average annual irrigation water consumption is expected to decrease by 3.84x10⁸ m³ or 8.87% during the period of 2040-2044. Meanwhile, the average annual total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in agricultural drainage canals will also increase by 10.50% and 30.06%, respectively. Through the implementation of agricultural management measures, the TN and TP in farmland drainage can be reduced by 14.49% and 16.03%, respectively, reaching 661.56 t and 12.99 t, accordingly, and the increasing water efficiency can save irrigation water consumption by 4.41 x10⁸ m³ or 4.77%. The results indicate that although the water environment in the irrigation area in the lower reaches of the Kaidu River Basin is deteriorating, the situation can be improved by implementing appropriate agricultural production methods. The quantitative analysis results of NPS pollutants in the irrigation area under different scenarios provide a scientific basis for water environmental management in the Kaidu River Basin.

关键词： 气候变化   Mann-Kendall检验   农业生产  

摘要： 本文利用图们市1976~2018年气温、降水量和日照数据,分析了图们市近43年气候变化特征及趋势,为农业生产提供科学依据。结果表明:图们市近43年气温升高趋势明显,降水波动大,日照时长显著增加,在弱降水时期有利于水稻的种植。

关键词： Risk management   Attribution bias   Market risk   Climate change   Agriculture adaptation   Rural formers households  

摘要： Whereas adaptations to climate change in the agriculture sector are well studied, non-climatic drivers thereof are considerably less explored. This is particularly true for market related factors. Every change in farming practices is attributed to climate change. This article presents new evidence of how adaptations to market risks may be incorrectly attributed to climate change risk because of causal attribution bias emerging from poorly structured survey instrument and response inducing questions. Through a quasi-experiment administered on 400 rural fanning households from four districts of Pakistan, we demonstrate that when farmers are not sensitized about climate change prior to questions on adaptations they assign market factors such as availability of new market opportunities, improved purchasing power, and net profitability as major reason for changes in sowing date, growing new crop verity and use of fertilizers. To be exact, less than 2% and 1% of farmers indicated climate change as the reason behind the change in crop variety and use of fertilizers respectively. Similarly, only 10% of farmers associated late sowing with climate change. Findings of the study imply a stronger role of the market-related factors in changing agricultural practices over the time asking policymakers to design better market-based interventions and incentives for increasing the adaptation in the agriculture community. Findings have also implications for mix method research and can be generalized for all research fields involving survey design.

关键词： Agricultural transition   Climate change   Collapse   Holocene   Hunter-gatherers   Mega-greenhouse effect  

摘要： For most of human history, about 300,000 years, we lived as hunter gatherers in sustainable, egalitarian communities of a few dozen people. Human life on Earth, and our place within the planet's biophysical systems, changed dramatically with the Holocene, a geological epoch that began about 12,000 years ago. An unprecedented combination of climate stability and warm temperatures made possible a greater dependence on wild grains in several parts of the world. Over the next several thousand years, this dependence led to agriculture and large-scale state societies. These societies show a common pattern of expansion and collapse. Industrial civilization began a few hundred years ago when fossil fuel propelled the human economy to a new level of size and complexity. This change brought many benefits, but it also gave us the existential crisis of global climate change. Climate models indicate that the Earth could warm by 3 degrees C-4 degrees C by the year 2100 and eventually by as much as 8 degrees C or more. This would return the planet to the unstable climate conditions of the Pleistocene when agriculture was impossible. Policies could be enacted to make the transition away from industrial civilization less devastating and improve the prospects of our hunter-gatherer descendants. These include aggressive policies to reduce the long-run extremes of climate change, aggressive population reduction policies, rewilding, and protecting the world's remaining indigenous cultures.

关键词： Climate change  

摘要： Gender mainstreaming was acknowledged as an indispensable strategy for achieving gender equality at the 1995 Beijing Platform for Action. Since then, governments have made substantial efforts in developing gender-responsive policies and implementation strategies. The advent of climate change and its effects, which have continued to impact rural livelihoods and especially food security, demands that gender mainstreaming efforts are accelerated. Effective gender mainstreaming requires that gender is sufficiently integrated in policies, development plans, and implementation strategies, supported by budgetary allocations. This study analyzes the extent of gender integration in agricultural and natural resource policies in Uganda and Tanzania, and how gender is budgeted for in implementation plans at district and lower governance levels. A total of 155 policy documents, development plans, and annual action plans from national, district, and sub-county/ward levels were reviewed. In addition, district and sub-county budgets for four consecutive financial years from 2012/2013 to 2015/2016 were analyzed for gender allocations. Results show that whereas there is increasing gender responsiveness in both countries, (i) gender issues are still interpreted as "women issues," (ii) there is disharmony in gender mainstreaming across governance levels, (iii) budgeting for gender is not yet fully embraced by governments, (iii) allocations to gender at sub-national level remain inconsistently low with sharp differences between estimated and actual budgets, and (iv) gender activities do not address any structural inequalities. We propose approaches that increase capacity to develop and execute gender-responsive policies, implementation plans, and budgets.

关键词： 气候变化   适应战略   CGE模型   农业生产率   作物模拟  

摘要： 国际上已经达成共识,即气候变化对世界各地的发展构成了迫在眉睫的威胁。埃及也不例外。毫无疑问,全球变暖使埃及跻身于预计将受到气候变化影响的国家之列。因此,埃及有必要将适应计划纳入其发展战略,以克服或遏制或限制气候变化不可避免的影响。因此,本研究分析了天气条件恶化对埃及经济增长和粮食安全的潜在经济和社会影响。因此,本研究将动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型与作物模型联系起来,以通过在2030年和2050年之前通过有代表性的集中途径(RCP)进行高精度的气候预测来模拟气候变化情景的潜在经济影响。结果表明气候变化对农业生产力的严重影响,这将导致实际GDP下降约6.5%。总之,正在考虑的适应措施已部分成功地恢复了基线附近的增长(但并没有消除气候变化的影响),但知道这些措施还不够。总之,考虑到这些措施还不够,正在考虑的适应措施已部分成功地恢复了基线附近的增长(但并没有消除气候变化的影响)。因此,本研究的发现可能具有至关重要的作用,埃及决策者需要制定适应措施,以解决气候变化导致的农业生产力损失的潜在影响。最后,研究建议:(1)区域化研究是减少负面影响并进一步改善这一现象的积极影响的最重要手段,已经有许多区域化研究在这方面得到了克服的可能。(2)埃及决策者需要制定适应措施,以应对气候变化导致的农业生产力损失的潜在影响,例如向农民提供气候智能型作物品种(即耐高温和抗旱的作物),改善农业生产方式和促使农民从受到气候变化严重影响的农作物转向不受气候变化影响的农作物。另外,农业部门需要更多的投资来提高生产率。(3)开发新的短生长季节类型,以减少其所需的水需求,并改变农业日期,包括适应天气条件,以及在适当的地区向适宜的气候种植新品种,以增加其生长所需的水分。每个单位的农作物收割水的产量。减少浪费的农作物的用水量,或至少不增加其面积(例如稻米和甘蔗),并且替代植物的目的和耗水季节相同,而生长速度较低,例如种植甜菜甘蔗(在该策略中应考虑到该作物是上埃及的主要作物,此外还有基于该作物的工厂第二产业和就业)。(4)在每种效果下,在适当的时间以适当的数量灌溉水,以保存每一滴水,在气候变化的情况下将需要每一滴水。

关键词： 气候变化   平均气温   相对湿度   年平均降水量   日照时长   绩效  

摘要： 气候变化已成为当今国际社会普遍关注的全球性重大环境问题,我国政府自《巴黎协定》以来积极开展气候变化适应措施,企业是国家的重要约束之一,而农业公司是对气候变化较敏感的行业,农业公司普遍出现资产净利率极低的现象,这不仅取决于企业存在产业集中度较低的特征,也因为对气候环境的高度依赖体现了农业这个行业的弱质性。一方面,为积极响应国家低碳和可持续发展的绿色理念,另一方面,正确认识到行业与气候资源息息相关。在内外动因的双重作用下,企业展开应对气候变化的长期战略是未来的必然选择。由此从会计学、经济学和气象学结合的领域入手,构建机制分析,介绍气候变化如何通过直接和间接的路径去影响农业上市公司的业绩。首先,本文基于40家A股上市的农业公司1991-2017年的非平衡面板数据,采取固定效应模型,实证分析了平均气温、相对湿度、年平均降水量以及平均日照时长对农业上市公司业绩的影响。研究结果表明:平均气温、相对湿度与农业上市公司绩效存在统计上的显著负相关性;年平均降水量、平均日照时长与农业上市公司业绩没有显著相关性。最后,通过海南橡胶的案例分析阐述了在经历屡次台风、干旱及局部持续降雨的气候灾害后,该企业的财务业绩如何变化及相应的战略部署。气候变化给企业带来的机遇和挑战,帮助农业企业意识到应根据不同的气候影响来引入不同的经营方式,积极应对气候环境的恶化。在我国还没有将气候与业绩的联系实际应用到企业经营管理上,将经济学与气象学结合,构建气象计量经济模型,为以后的气象和企业绩效研究工作提供了新思路,促进企业在未来的环境中走向可持续发展,提升自身的竞争力。

关键词： 农业生产   水资源脆弱性   气候变化   中亚地区  

摘要： 气候变化是当今全球变化研究的热点问题之一，研究气候变化背景下干旱区农业水资源脆弱性，对农业水资源管理、规划以及水资源的有效利用至关重要，可为实现农业用水系统的高效运作提供支撑。农业水资源脆弱性是指在自然条件变动或人为条件干扰的前提下，衡量农业水资源系统影响农业可持续发展能力的重要指标。在自然、社会以及人类活动变化条件下，农业水资源脆弱性研究可以结合暴露度、敏感度和适应度等指标进行综合表达。中亚是气候变化的敏感地带，干旱区面积广阔，水资源短缺和生态环境恶化将严重影响中亚地区农业用水安全，使得该地区农业水资源利用存在不确定性。　　本研究以中亚为研究区，依据水资源脆弱性的概念与内涵，从暴露度、敏感度和适应度等3个一级指标中选取18个二级指标建立农业水资源脆弱性指标体系，采用等权重法和主成分分析法分别确定各级指标权重，研究气候变化对中亚农业水资源脆弱性的影响;在气候变化背景下，评价中亚农业水资源脆弱性，为区域农业水资源管理提供科学依据。主要结论如下:　　(1)通过分析中亚作物生育期气候要素变化特征，表明中亚作物生育期的平均气温、降水量、潜在蒸散量以及相对湿润度指数等气象要素变化差异明显。平均气温和潜在蒸散量有显著增加趋势，降水量和相对湿润度指数有微弱增加趋势，并且各气候要素有明显的年际变化。　　(2)中亚农业水资源暴露度、敏感度、适应度和脆弱性空间差异显著。农业水资源暴露度从西南向东北大致降低;农业水资源敏感度表现为从南到北降低的变化;农业水资源适应度表现为从南到北逐渐升高的变化;受森林覆盖率、农业用水比例、农田灌溉定额、水分胁迫指数、灌溉指数和施政效率的影响，农业水资源脆弱度表现为自东北向西南升高的变化。中亚农业水资源脆弱度变化趋势表现为“前期升高，后期降低”的态势，其脆弱度发生变化的面积随时间经历升高-降低-稳定-稳定的过程。　　(3)根据中亚农业水资源脆弱性空间分布特征，可划分为北部微度脆弱区、中北部轻度脆弱区、中南部中度脆弱区、南部重度脆弱区和西南部极度脆弱区5个大区，根据各分区农业水资源脆弱性地理特征，为未来农业生产布局、社会经济发展和环境保护提供参考依据。