关键词： 农业技术发展   江河流域   历史学者   气候变化   区域历史地理   深化与发展   黄河中下游地区   黄河流域  

摘要： 近年来随着区域历史地理研究的不断深化与发展,打破传统行政区划研究的藩篱,以江河流域为中心的研究方兴未艾。黄河流域作为学者们关注的重要区域,在一些研究领域取得了一定的成果,但是聚焦于历史气候变化与农业技术发展的著作仍不多见。著名历史学者王星光先生长期致力于古代黄河流域历史文化的研究.

关键词： Climate change induced risk   Crop yield deviation   Cropland use   MOTAD model  

摘要： This paper estimates the climate change induced risk for 14 crops measured by the yield deviation using the panel data from seven counties in Jiangsu province in China from 1998 to 2017, and then investigates the risk effect on cropland use in a representative farm using the survey data and the MOTAD model. The results show that the crop yield deviation are more susceptible to change in temperature than that in sunlight and precipitation. The crop-specific risk level amounts to 1.3-5.3% of the average yields. The risk leads to reducing the cultivated areas by 6% and also causes a significant change in cropland use. As an effective adaptation strategy of mitigating the climate change induced risk, the farms should reduce the total cultivated area by about 15% in comparison with the observed situation while the cropland use structure should be adjusted accordingly. More cropland should be allocated to wheat, peanut and cotton but the other crop areas should be reduced or maintained.

关键词： Agriculture   Adaptation   Climate change   Impacts   Perception  

摘要： Climate change is real and is considered to be impacting agricultural development in Bhutan. To authenticate this claim, a survey was conducted in six districts of Bhutan, representing low- , mid- and high-altitude regions of the country from March to May, 2019. Based on the current research, we present farmers' perceptions of climate change and its impacts on agricultural production, including the different coping strategies prevalent in rural communities. The study found that the farmers were well aware of climate change, although perceptions varied among the respondents. For most of the farmers, climate change meant unpredictable weather (79%), less or no rain (70%) and drying of irrigation sources (55%). Some farmers referred to climate change as the emergence of diseases and pests (45%), high-intensity rains (30%), less or no snow (24%) and shorter winter (11%). These climate change impacts were assessed to be responsible for 10-20% crop damages, resulting in crop losses to the tune of 8079-16,159 t and 7202-14,405 t for rice and maize, respectively. This is likely to affect the already low domestic food production of the country. Additionally, the study has successfully captured information on climate change adaptation strategies applied by the farmers. The most commonly observed ones were: the use of plant protection chemicals, improved varieties, increasing frequency of irrigation, land fallowing, off-farm works and improved management practices. Findings such as these are important towards the identification and formulation of an integrated sustainable and climate-proof farming support system.

关键词： Climate change   Adaptation   South Asia  

摘要： Agriculture in South Asia is vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, adaptation measures are required to sustain agricultural productivity, to reduce vulnerability, and to enhance the resilience of the agricultural system to climate change. There are many adaptation practices in the production systems that have been proposed and tested for minimizing the effects of climate change. Some socioeconomic and political setup contributes to adaptation, while others may inhibit it. This paper presents a systematic review of the impacts of climate change on crop production and also the major options in the agricultural sector that are available for adaptation to climate change. One of the key conclusions is that agricultural practices that help climate change adaptation in agriculture are available, while the institutional setup to implement and disseminate those technical solutions is yet to be strengthened. Thus, it is important to examine how to bring the required institutional change, generate fund to invest on these changes, and design dynamic policies for long-term climate change adaptation in agriculture rather than a mere focus on agricultural technology. This is one of the areas where South Asian climate policies require reconsidering to avoid possible maladaptation in the long run.

关键词： Climate change   Food security   Market   Trade   China  

摘要： China's food security has been facing several challenges, which are likely to be worsened due to climate change. The purpose of this paper is to provide an evidence on the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture, with particular attention to the market and trade responses. Using projected crop yield changes for China and its' main trading partners under changing climate, we employ an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPSiM) and a linked national and global equilibrium model (CAPSiM-GTAP) to assess the impacts on food production, price, trade and self-sufficiency of China. Our results show that climate change will have significant effects on crop production though with large differences among crops. Under the worst climate change scenario RCP 8.5, wheat yield in China is projected to decline by 9.4% by 2050, which is the biggest yield reduction among the crops. However, the market can also respond to the climate change, as farmers can change inputs in response to reduced yields and rising prices. As a result, production losses for most crops are dampened. For example, wheat production loss under RCP8.5 reduces to only 4.3% due to market response. The adverse impacts on crop production will be further reduced after accounting for the trade response as farmers adjust production to much higher prices in the more severely affected countries. The paper concludes that we need to learn more from farmers who optimize their production decisions in response to the market and trade signals during climate change. A major policy implication is that policymakers need to mainstream the market and trade responses into national plans for climate adaptation.

摘要： Agriculture and food security are predicted to be significantly impacted by climate change, though the impact will vary by region and by crop. Combined with the increasing global population, there is an urgent need for agriculture to adapt to ensure future food security for this growing population. Adaptation strategies include changing land and cropping practices, the development of improved crop varieties and changing food consumption and waste. Recent advances in genomics and agronomy can help alleviate some of the impacts of climate change on food production;however, given the timeframe for crop improvement, significant investment is required to realise these changes. Ultimately, there is a limit as to how far agriculture can adapt to the changing climate, and a political will to reduce the impact of burning of fossil fuels on the global climate is essential for long term food security.

关键词： 农业气象灾害   病虫害   气候变化   影响  

摘要： 气候变化可能导致相应的天气灾害以及植物病虫害变化,从而影响一段时间内农业平稳发展。因此,积极了解气候变化对农业天气灾害和害虫的影响非常重要。在下文中,专门介绍了病虫害影响以及气候变化可能引起农业天气灾害,以便大多数农业工作者可以增进对气候变化了解。

关键词： 气候变化   人类社会生产   社会经济形势   气候变暖   传染疾病   农业可持续发展   自然环境   应对措施  

摘要： 近几十年来,随着人类社会生产生活的快速发展,赖以生存的自然环境也慢慢地遭到破坏,全球正在经历以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化。日益加剧的气候变化对世界各国的社会经济形势产生了较大影响。气候变化影响了农业生产,提高了传染疾病的发生率。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害影响研究  

摘要： 在国民经济发展过程中,农业生产对现代人日常生活具有极其重要的价值,相关单位必须对其加强重视,在近年来,气候变化使其农业生产病虫害和农业气象灾害频繁。本文分别探究气候变化在病虫害和农业气象灾害方面的具体影响,希望能够对其病害进行有效控制,提升作物产量。

关键词： climate change   agricultural reservoir   design flood   uncertainty   interval estimation   non-parametric resampling   bootstrap technique  

摘要： Agricultural reservoirs play such a central role in supplying water to rural areas that it is essential to properly estimate the design flood for agricultural reservoirs under climate change. The objective of this study was to estimate the inflow design flood interval using a non-parametric resampling technique for agricultural reservoirs under climate change. This study suggested an alternative method to point estimation using insufficient past data by providing the interval of the inflow design flood under the representative concentration pathway. To estimate the interval of the inflow design flood, we employed the bootstrap technique, which estimated the confidence interval corresponding to the 95% confidence level. This study covered a spatial range of 30 agricultural reservoirs in South Korea and a temporal range of past and three future representative periods: the base period (2015s: 1986-2015) and future periods (2040s: 2011-2040, 2070s: 2041-2070, 2100s: 2071-2100). We analyzed the results of a 200-year return period and 24-hour duration as a representative case. For the 97.5th bias-corrected and accelerated percentile value, the overall inflow design floods were larger than the base period value (2015s) with the safety factor applied. The northern and midwestern regions of South Korea showed relatively greater changes than the southeastern region. Some agricultural reservoirs showed a decrease in the design flood during the 2040s but generally increased after the 2070s. Through the non-parametric resampling technique, the interval estimation was provided considering the uncertainty of the inflow design flood. By presenting the results for three periods, we can provide policymakers with information to select according to the target period. The findings may provide an essential step in replacing a safety factor used for determining the design flood of agricultural reservoirs with the confidence interval calculated in accordance with statistical characteristic