关键词： climate change   agricultural GTFP   Super-slacks-based measure(Super-SBM)model   Geodetector   CO2 emissions   arid regions   semi-arid regions  

摘要： There are eight provinces and autonomous regions(Gansu Province,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Tibet Autonomous Region,Qinghai Province,Shanxi Province,and Shaanxi Province)in Northwest China,most areas of which are located in arid and semi-arid regions(northwest of the 400 mm precipitation line),accounting for 58.74%of the country's land area and sustaining approximately 7.84×10^6 *** of drought conditions and fragile ecology,these regions cannot develop agriculture at the expense of the *** the challenges of global warming,the green total factor productivity(GTFP),taking CO2 emissions as an undesirable output,is an effective index for measuring the sustainability of agricultural *** GTFP can be influenced by both internal production factors(labor force,machinery,land,agricultural plastic film,diesel,pesticide,and fertilizer)and external climate factors(temperature,precipitation,and sunshine duration).In this study,we used the Super-slacks-based measure(Super-SBM)model to measure agricultural GTFP during the period 2000-2016 at the regional *** results show that the average agricultural GTFP of most provinces and autonomous regions in arid and semi-arid regions underwent a fluctuating increase during the study period(2000-2016),and the fluctuation was caused by the production factors(input and output factors).To improve agricultural GTFP,Shaanxi,Shanxi,and Gansu should reduce agricultural labor force input;Shaanxi,Inner Mongolia,Gansu,and Shanxi should decrease machinery input;Shaanxi,Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,and Shanxi should reduce fertilizer input;Shaanxi,Xinjiang,Gansu,and Ningxia should reduce diesel input;Xinjiang and Gansu should decrease plastic film input;and Gansu,Shanxi,and Inner Mongolia should cut pesticide *** output agricultural earnings should be increased in Qinghai and Tibet,and undesirable output(CO2 emissions)should be

关键词： Climate change   Adaptation   Comparative advantage   Acreage elasticities   Crop substitution  

摘要： Understanding how a changing climate alters regional comparative advantage is crucial for evaluating the economic impacts of climate change. I exploit temporal variation in decades-long averages of weather and estimate crop acreage elasticities with respect to climate change in the United States. I find substantial climate change adaptation through acreage adjustments in US agriculture. Climate change explains about 10-35% of the observed US corn and soybean expansion over the past 30 years, and climate-driven crop substitution has played an important role. The acreage response is heterogeneous across major and minor producing areas and across dryland and irrigated counties. (C) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： Productivity and efficiency   Climate change   Agroecology   Stochastic output distance function   Agriculture   Bangladesh  

摘要： The paper estimates the impacts of climate change, agroecological and socio-economic characteristics on agricultural productivity and efficiency changes in Bangladesh agriculture using a rich panel dataset of 17 regions covering a period of 61-years (1948-2008). Results revealed that land has the most dominant role in increasing agricultural production followed by labour and irrigation. The contribution of non-cereal crops (i.e., potatoes, pulses, oilseeds, jute and cash crops) to total production are also significant, ranging from 2 to 8% per annum. An increase in annual-rainfall and long-term-temperature (LTT) significantly enhance production. Production is significantly higher in floodplain agroecologies. However, production efficiency fluctuated sharply and declined overtime. The mean efficiency score of 0.74 implies substantial room to improve production by resource reallocation. Average farm size, crop specialization and investment in R&D significantly improve efficiency whereas increases in annual temperature-variability and LTT significantly reduce efficiency. Efficiency is significantly lower in low-lying floodplain and coastal-plain agroecologies. Policy implications include investments in diversifying cropping portfolio into other cereals (i.e., wheat and maize), research to develop crop varieties suited to changing climatic conditions and specific agroecological regions, and land/tenurial reforms to consolidate farm size to enhance productivity and efficiency of Bangladesh agriculture.

关键词： Climate change   Human impact   Monsoon precipitation   Diatom   Lake sediment  

摘要： The responses of alpine lake ecosystems to combined climate and human impacts are ecologically important to understand. It is necessary to differentiate natural, climate-forced ecosystem changes from those driven by human disturbance with a long-term (i.e. 10(2)-10(3-)yr) perspective. Here a(14)C, Pb-210 and 137Cs- dated sediment core covering approximately 2500 years was analyzed for diatoms, pigments, cladocerans and geochemistry in Lugu lake-catchment in southwest China to examine the response of the lake to climate change and human impacts. Between 1000 and 1300 AD, a warming climate coupled with declining summer monsoon precipitation resulted in the increase of oligotrophic taxa and low catchment runoff. Prior to 1300 AD the lake ecosystem was primarily responding to natural, regional climate-related processes. After 1300 AD, the clear ecological shifts and reorganizations in community structure across multiple trophic levels suggest that major transitions took place in the Lugu ecosystem. An increase in Poaceae (grass) pollen from 1300 AD indicates human settlement in the area, and is followed by rapid decline in Tsuga, most likely a consequence of logging. Use of change point analyses of the multi-proxy data demonstrate that the lake ecosystem has been highly variable since 1300 AD and exhibiting enhanced vulnerability to both natural and anthropogenic disturbance. Our results suggest that agriculture-climate interactions played a major role in the ecological transitions over the last similar to 700 years. This conclusion provides insight into how the anthropogenic land-use intensity, vegetation cover and surface erosion fluctuated with natural temperature and precipitation change over the past 2000 years. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change loss   Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Model   Cross-Strait   Economic analysis  

摘要： The structure of agricultural industries at Cross-Strait differs as climate change is considered. In fact, its influence on their agriculture and other industries vary when the impact produced by natural disasters due to climate change are faced. To estimate direct and indirect losses caused by natural disasters, this study applies Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) analysis developed by Miller and Blair (2009) to discuss the development among Cross-Strait industries as they face disaster losses. The data sources used in this article are from Lin (2013), Cross-Strait ICIO table, and the statistics of agriculture in the periods 2005-2017 for Taiwan and Mainland China. The main results from our ICIO analysis are as follows: the value-added losses caused by natural disasters mainly involve agriculture, forestry, fishery, wholesale and retail trade, animal feed, and chemical fertilizer industries. These sectors account for 87.4% in Mainland China and 94.6% in Taiwan of total separately.

关键词： cyclic flows   efficiency   industrial ecology   life cycle assessment (LCA)   mitigation   resilience  

摘要： The food and agriculture sectors contribute significantly to climate change, but are also particularly vulnerable to its effects. Industrial ecology has robustly addressed these sectors' contributions to climate change, but not their vulnerability to climate change. Climate change vulnerability must be addressed through development of climate change adaptation and resiliency strategies. However, there is a fundamental tension between the primary objectives of industrial ecology (efficiency, cyclic flows, and pollution prevention) and what is needed for climate change adaptation and resiliency. We develop here two potential ways through which the field can overcome (or work within) this tension and combine the tools and methods of industrial ecology with the science and process of climate change adaptation. The first layers industrial ecology tools on top of climate change adaptation strategies, allowing one to, for example, compare the environmental impacts of different adaptation strategies. The other embeds climate change adaptation and resiliency within industrial ecology tools, for example, by redefining the functional unit in life cycle assessment (LCA) to include functions of resiliency. In both, industrial ecology plays a somewhat narrow role, informing climate change adaptation and resilience decision-making by providing quantitative indicators of environmental performance. This role for industrial ecology is important given the significant contributions and potential for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from food and agriculture. However, it suggests that industrial ecology's role in climate adaptation will be as an evaluator of adaptation strategies, rather than an originator.

摘要： The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that climate has changed over the past century and the trend is anticipated to continue in the future. This study examines climate change posed drought and potential of rainy season rainfall in Kesem sub-basin. Rainfall variability is examined using statistical descriptors. Also, the onset and cessation dates, length of growing season, and probability of dry and wet spell are analyzed using INSTAT Plus software. On the other hand, long-term drought is analyzed using reconnaissance drought index. Rainfall variability result showed high coefficient of variance (CV) of 46.8 to 179.2% on monthly and 39.1% on annual basis. The mean duration of the main rainy season is 91 days with standard deviation of 18.5 days and CV of 20.4%. The probability of dry decade in the main rainy season is more than 50% for the 16th to 18th and 25th to 27th decades. Whereas probability occurrences of dry decades preceded by dry decades were more than 50% for decades 16th to 18th and 23th to 27th. Potential evapotranspiration showed increment of 25.9 mm from the base period for RCP 4.5 (2020) and 26.7 mm for RCP 8.5 (2020), and 55 mm for RCP4.5 (2050) and 56.8 mm for RCP8.5 (2050). Regarding the long-term drought, there were 9.7% extreme, 6.5% severe, 3.2% moderate, and 48.4% mild drought on the basis of observed data. The inter-annual variability of growing seasons, probability occurrence of dry decade, and drought during growing season are revealed. So, policymakers need to consider supplementary irrigation for crops in the area because there are high probability occurrences of dry decades.

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Crops revenue   Ricardian method   Central Highlands of Afghanistan  

摘要： This paper provides evidence on the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in the Central Highlands of Afghanistan by exploring the climate sensitivity of crop net revenue per unit of land. A Ricardian model and a novel 2017 dataset for 1502 farmers in three central provinces along with 34 years of weather information are used to study the impact of variations in seasonal precipitation and annual temperature. The findings suggest a significant and nonlinear effect of climate factors on crop net revenue. The impact of seasonal precipitation is found to vary across space and time. The effect of increased annual temperature is found to be generally positive and significant-both statistically and economically. The predicted impact of future climate change is largely beneficial, mainly due to warming. (C) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： adaptation   agriculture   climate change   maladaptation   nitrogen   political economy  

摘要： In this article, we explore if and why farmers are responding to the impacts of climate change with practices that increase greenhouse gas emissions. Our examination focuses on heavy rainfall events and Midwestern corn farmers' nitrogen fertilizer management. Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of heavy rain events is increasing across the Midwest. These events increase nitrogen loss to the environment and introduces economic risks to farmers. Drawing from a theoretical framework that merges O'Connor's second contradiction of capitalism and Schnaiberg's treadmill of production, we argue farmers' responses to these events reflect the second contradiction, increasing contributions to climate change, and are shaped by treadmill-like political-economic pressures. We examine this using a qualitative sample of 154 farmers across Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan. Given profit imperatives, adapting farmers in our sample primarily used increased nitrogen application rates to reduce their vulnerability to heavy rains. As nitrogen rate is directly associated with nitrous oxide emissions, this adaptive strategy is effective but increases agricultural contributions to climate change. This preliminarily suggests that the political-economic structure encourages farmers to respond to climate change in ways that accelerate the environmental contradictions of industrial agriculture.

关键词： Tree ring   Vegetation coverage   Climate change   Agricultural cultivation   Northwest China  

摘要： Comprehending the characteristics and causes of vegetation coverage in history is of practical significance for studying ecological and environmental changes. As a typical region of the semi-arid and semi-humid climatic zone in northwest China, the upper reaches of the Weihe River have relatively fragile ecological environment. Based on tree-ring width chronologies, the vegetation coverage represented by the normalized difference vegetation index was reconstructed from 1630 to 2006 using a regression model. There were 64 years with high vegetation coverage and 56 years with low vegetation coverage over the past 377 years. At low frequencies, the coverage was relatively higher in the 1650s and from the 1880s to 1890s, while the coverage was lower in the 1720s and from the 1760s to 1770s. While precipitation and temperature had positive and negative influences on the changes of vegetation coverage, respectively, during the past several centuries, the agricultural cultivation played an important role on coverage changes. Along with the land reclamation expansion in history, the forest cover gradually declined, and vegetation coverage decreased. The vegetation coverage was lower when there were more arable lands reclaimed from woodlands. Regardless of the land reclamation policy during the historical period or the current conversion project of cropland to forest, they affected the vegetation coverage by influencing cover ranges of woodland and farmland. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.