关键词： Global warming   Land suitability   Decision support systems   Crop yield   GIS  

摘要： Climate change impacts are a serious threat to food provisioning, security and the economy. Thus, assessing agricultural suitability and yield reduction under climate change is crucial for sustainable agricultural production. In this study, we used two sub-models of the agro-ecological decision support system MicroLEIS (Terraza and Cervatana) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on land capability and yield reduction or wheat and sunflower as major rainfed crops in different Mediterranean soil types (in Andalucia, Southern Spain). The Terraza sub-model provides an experimental prediction for the bioclimate deficiency and yield reduction, while the Cervatana sub-model predicts the general land use suitability for specific agricultural uses. Sixty-two districts in Southern Spain were modeled and mapped using soil data and the Al B climate scenario (balanced scenario) for three 30-year periods ending in 2040, 2070 and 2100, respectively. Our results showed that the majority of agricultural soils were suitable for wheat production, and less for sunflowers, especially under projected climate change scenarios. Extreme impacts of climate change were observed in the soil types Typic Xerofluvents and Calcic Haploxerepts, where the land capability was reduced from Good and Moderate classes to the Marginal class. This was especially observed in sunflower crops by 2100. Yield reduction of sunflower was much higher than the reduction for wheat, especially under the projected climate periods, where the results for 2100 showed the severest effect on crop yields with about 95% of the sunflower area showing yield reductions. This high variability of the evaluation results demonstrates the importance of using soil factors, climate and crop information in conjunction in decision-making regarding the formulation of site-specific soil use and management strategies.

关键词： 莆田市   气候变化   农业生产  

摘要： 气候在人类生存中扮演着不可替代的角色。如今,二氧化碳的浓度以及温室效应的影响已大大增加,这导致了全球迅速变暖。气候变化问题已成为广大公众和学者关注的问题之一。近年来,农业对气候变化也非常敏感,气候变化对农业生产的影响变得越来越重要。因此,本文着重分析莆田市近期气候变化特征对当地农业生产的影响,以期能够为充分利用当地气候资源、科学、合理地进行农业决策提供一定的依据。

关键词： 中亚   水土资源   农业发展   匹配度   气候变化  

摘要： 随着气候变化和社会经济的发展,科学揭示中亚水土资源和农业发展之间的匹配程度,对中亚可持续发展具有重要的战略意义.文章在综合分析中亚五国2002~2015年关于可利用降雨量、谷物播种面积与谷物产量的基础上,首先研究中亚水资源、土地资源和农业发展三要素间的二元匹配特性;然后提出基于重心公式的多元匹配评估模型和分级标准,用于分析三要素的多元时空匹配特征;最后探讨未来气候变化(升温1.5、2℃)对多元时空匹配特征的影响.研究表明:中亚的资源与发展间二元匹配度大部分处于中等匹配水平以上,两两要素之间协同较好;位于下游的土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的农业发展潜力尚未充分挖掘,而上游的吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦以及下游的哈萨克斯坦水土资源开发利用程度较低,农业发展受到了限制;温度上升在时间尺度上会降低多元匹配度水平,在空间尺度上对多元匹配度的影响很小,其中对上游国家空间匹配度的影响相对较大,需要更加合理分配水资源以充分提高农业发展潜力.

关键词： 农业气候资源   辐射   参考蒸散量   缺水率  

摘要： 【目的】为合理利用当地农业气候资源科学开展玉米种植。【方法】本文基于四川省盆地区、盆周山区及攀西农区1961-2017年124个站点逐日气象资料、1981-2017年15个农业气象观测站玉米生育期资料,分析了该玉米种植区全生育期及不同生育阶段光、温、水农业气候资源时空变化状况。【结果】玉米全生育期和各生育阶段热量资源大都呈升高趋势,播种-拔节期升高速率最快。全生育期和各生育期平均日较差攀西农区均明显高于盆地,攀西农区近50年平均日较差气候倾向率呈减少趋势;玉米全生育期和各生育阶段的总辐射量均呈减小趋势,光能资源较高的区域为盆地西南地区和攀西农区南部,其中播种-拔节期总辐射量最大;全生育期和各生育阶段的参考蒸散量总体呈现下降趋势,其中播种-拔节期参考蒸散量和缺水率最大,水资源较为缺乏的集中在攀西大部及盆中老旱区。【结论】各地应合理利用光、温、水资源,为相关部门制定农业生产措施提供科学依据,确保玉米高产优质发展。

关键词： climate warming   eutrophication   fisheries management   multiple stressors   percid  

摘要： Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non-point source nutrient pollution. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs, i.e. farming practices that reduce runoff, prevent erosion, and curb excessive nutrient loading) offer a potential means to mitigate the negative effects of non-point source pollution on fish populations. However, our understanding of how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs remains incomplete. Towards this end, we explored how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (native walleye Sander vitreus and yellow perch Perca flavescens and invasive white perch Morone americana) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We projected future (2020-2065) recruitment under different combinations of anticipated climate change (n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation (n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie catchment using predictive biological models driven by forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River total phosphorus loads that were generated from linked climate, catchment-hydrology, and agricultural-practice-simulation models. In general, our models projected reduced walleye and yellow perch recruitment whereas invasive white perch recruitment was projected to remain stable or increase relative to the recent past. Our modelling also suggests the potential for trade-offs, as ACP implementation was projected to reduce yellow perch recruitment with anticipated climate change. Overall, our study presents a useful modelling framework to forecast fish recruitment in Lake Erie and elsewhere, as well as offering projections and new avenues

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   防控措施  

摘要： 气候变化对农业生产活动的影响是巨大的,不仅使气象灾害的发生更加广泛和频繁,还会传播病虫害。因此,要重视加强对农业生产的预防控制,确保农业生产平稳发展。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   预防  

摘要： 现阶段,我国环境污染问题愈发严重,使得气候变化成为了人们茶余饭后的热点话题。气候变化不仅会造成严重的农业气象灾害,还会使病虫害的发展规律发生变化,这样的问题对于我国农业发展带来了巨大的影响。因此必须从环境着手,从而改变当前的气候条件,并合理化利用设施农业气象装备,以此加强对农业气象灾害的控制。

关键词： 气候变化   影响   对策   河西绿洲  

摘要： 气候变暖和区域降水变化给河西绿洲农业生产带来严峻挑战。认识气候变化特征及其对农业的影响,提出应对措施,可为区域农业应对气候变化提供科学依据。基于河西绿洲气象观测资料,分析河西绿洲近58年(1961—2018年)气候变化特征,对比讨论气候变化对河西绿洲农业的主要影响,提出河西绿洲农业应对气候变化的适应技术对策。结果表明,近58年,河西绿洲区年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,气温变化倾向率为0.364℃·(10 a)^−1,年平均气温于20世纪70年初开始持续上升,年平均气温上升突变点出现在1997年。年降水量年际变化也呈显著上升趋势,降水量变化倾向率为4.341 mm·(10 a)^−1,降水量于20世纪60年代开始上升,降水量上升突变点为2006年。气候变暖使河西绿洲作物生长季延长,春小麦、玉米的出苗期、生育期缩短,成熟期提前;作物适宜种植区和可以种植区海拔增加,多熟制北移,夏粮面积缩小,秋粮面积增大。弱冬性、中晚熟品种逐步取代强冬性、中早熟品种;玉米中晚熟品种种植适宜区上限高度已由海拔1500 m提升到海拔1800 m左右。未来气候变化对绿洲农业发展利弊共存。夏季降水增多会增加径流量,山区降雪会增加冰川储水量;气温增高,有效积温增加,无霜期延长,复种指数提高;但是,气候变暖使灾害性天气的极端性增加,危害加重,对设施农业、大田生产造成的损失增加。要严格控制人工绿洲面积,提高土地生产力;优化农业产业结构,发展高效绿洲生态农业种植模式;加快特色农业建设,优化农业经济结构;依靠科技提升核心竞争力,逐步提高农业现代化水平;研究绿洲生态系统演变机理和驱动机制,维护绿洲生态系统平衡;发展节水生态农业,建立绿洲多元化复合种植结构;发展绿洲及过渡带舍饲畜牧业,延长生态产业链。通过上述的措施,科学开发利用气候资源,减缓气候变暖的不利影响,应对气候变化。

关键词： 旱作农业区   农户   感知   适应行为多样性   生计资本  

摘要： 通过对陕北地区17个县(区、市)23个乡(镇)80个村903位农户开展问卷调查和深度访谈,构建多层感知器(MLP)模型及适应行为多样性指数,分析农户的气候变化影响感知及重要性影响因素、农户应对气候变化采取的多样性适应行为及其与感知和生计资本之间的相互关系。结果表明:气候变化影响农户正常农业生产与生活,导致病虫害增加,作物产量下降;文化程度、居住时间、赶集频率和看电视频率是影响农户气候变化影响感知的重要因素。当地的经济发展水平影响农户适应行为多样性;感知强度影响适应行为多样性;生计资本与适应行为多样指数呈显著性正向相关关系。