关键词： 农户   感知   适应行为   旱作农业   陕北  

摘要： 气候变化对旱作农业区农业发展造成严重影响,陕北黄土高原多数地区农业类型为旱作农业,极度依赖气候条件。而作为农业产业的主体,农户对于气候变化的感知与适应措施的选择,直接影响到该地区的农业产出。因此准确把握农户对气候变化的感知与适应情况,对制定科学的适应性政策,保证旱作农业区农业产业健康可持续发展,助推乡村振兴具有至关重要的意义。本研究在对陕北旱作农业区农户进行充分调研和访谈的基础上,将科学观测数据与农户气候变化感知结果的定类数据比较,衡量农户对气候变化感知的准确性,利用二元Logistic回归探究感知与气象数据之间的关系和影响感知准确性的因素。同时,采取多元线性回归探索影响农户适应行为选择的微观因素。并使用熵值法计算农户生计资本和气候风险感知指标权重,从农户生计资本、气候风险显著性、气候变化感知和气候风险感知四个角度入手,采取路径分析对影响农户气候变化适应行为的宏观机制进行实证分析,研究结果表明:(1)陕北旱作农业区1990-2019年均气温呈现缓慢上升趋势,年平均气温分布东西向差异明显,气温增速“西快东慢”。四季均温呈现上升趋势,季节气温高低次序从大到小为夏、春、秋和冬,而增速排序从大到小依次为春、秋、冬、夏。年降水量呈现明显上升趋势,且年平均降水量呈现出东多西少的梯度差异,同时西部地区降水增加率相对于东部和北部地区而言较低。春季降水量呈下降趋势,夏、秋和冬三季降水均为上升趋势,季节降水量高低次序从大到小为夏、秋、春和冬,增速排序从大到小依次为秋、夏、春、冬。(2)绝大多数农户对气温变化的感知与气象实测数据一致,但是降水的感知结果和实测数据不一致。年龄对气温变化感知的准确性产生的是正向影响,种植玉米作物的农户能更加准确的感知到气温的上升,种植苹果对农户准确感知气温变化影响显著并且呈现负相关关系,坚信全球气温在逐渐上升的农户也同样认为本地气温在升高。相比于女性,男性更容易准确感知到降水变化的趋势。本地居住时间越久,越容易感知到降水是在减少的。家庭规模同样对降水变化感知产生了显著的负向影响,认为全球气温升高的农户越容易认为降水在减少,从事苹果种植业的农户能准确的感知到降水是在增加的。(3)农户倾向于增加农药使用量、采取保墒技术、增加非农收入、增加地膜覆盖面积、外出打工、改变种植结构和增加灌溉次数来消除气候变化对生计的影响,但是对迁移和购买保险两项适应行为采取较少。榆林市各区县农户的适应行为多样性指数整体上要高于延安市。文化程度、本地居住时间、家庭农业收入、家庭非农收入、所在村到乡镇的距离对集约化适应行为产生显著影响;对变革型适应行为产生显著影响的因素有文化程度、本地居住时间、家庭劳动力人数、家庭非农收入、耕地面积和可以借款的人数;而文化程度、家庭劳动力人数、家庭非农收入、所在村到乡镇的距离以及可以借款人数对多样化适应行为产生显著影响;本地居住时间、家庭劳动力人数、耕地面积和可以借款人数对迁移型适应行为产生显著影响。(4)气候风险显著性对气候风险感知和集约化适应行为具有正向显著影响,并且其通过气候风险感知对集约化适应行为、变革型适应行为和多样化适应行为产生正向影响。迁移型适应行为受到气候风险显著性的负向影响。生计资本对气候风险显著性产生正向直接影响,并且其通过气候风险感知对集约化、变革型和多样化适应行为产生正向影响。但是气候风险感知受到气候变化感知的负向影响。

关键词： Economic cascading effect   ARIO model   Agriculture   Climate change   China  

摘要： The agricultural sector is extremely vulnerable to climate change and also plays a very important role in the operation of the entire economic system, leading many studies to evaluate the possible agricultural direct economic damage (ADED) of climate change. However, this damage may have an amplification impact through the intricate industrial linkages that exist among sectors, and this impact may be even greater than the original damage. Therefore, to elucidate the economic cascading effect (ECE) in China caused by ADED and industrial linkage, this paper used the ARIO model to evaluate the total ECE and analyse the differences in the 19 sectors by taking the ADED under future annual mean temperature (AMT) increases of 1-5 degrees C as the input condition and adjusting the exogenous parameters to enhance the adaptability of the model;the goal was to assess the economic impact of climate change in China. The results show that (i) there is a significant amplifying impact of ECE due to industrial linkage under the influence of warming, ECE will be 4.24-5.25 times that of ADED, and the total economic impact (ADED thorn ECE) will exceed the GDP of the Chinese capital of Beijing in 2012 when the AMT increases by 1.5 degrees C, while it will exceed one tenth of China's GDP when it increases by 4 degrees C. (ii) Manufacturing will be the sector most affected by the industrial linkage under ADED, which accounts for 26.58% of total ECE, followed by agriculture (10.39%) and construction (8.5%). (iii) The decrease in cultivated land area will have a significant impact on the economy;when it is reduced to the minimum demand (1.41% less than 2012), ADED increases by 1.65 times and ECE increases by 2.35 times. This paper aims to provide a new perspective from which to evaluate the economic impact of climate change by studying ECEs behind sectoral interactions. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

关键词： Climate change   Agricultural land   Rice productivity   Water demand  

摘要： Purpose This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on some specific areas of agricultural production in Quang Nam Province, including assessing the possibility of losing agricultural land owing to sea level rise;assessing the impact on rice productivity;and, assessing the impact on crop water demand. Design/methodology/approach This study used the method of collecting and processing statistics data;method of analysis, comparison and evaluation;method of geographic information system;method of using mathematical model;and method of professional solution, to assess the impacts of climate change. Findings Evaluation results in Quang Nam Province show that, by the end of the 21st century, winter-spring rice productivity may decrease by 33%, while summer-autumn rice productivity may decrease by 49%. Under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, water demand increases by 31.1% compared to the baseline period, of which the winter-spring crop increases by 28.4%, and the summer-autumn crop increased by 34.3%. Under RCP 8.5 scenario, water demand increases by 54.1% compared to the baseline period, of which the winter-spring crop increases by 46.7%, and the summer-autumn crop increased by 63.1%. The area of agricultural land likely to be inundated by sea level rise at 50 cm is 418.32 ha, and at 80 cm, it is 637.07 ha. Originality/value To propose adaptation solution to avoid the impacts of climate change on agriculture, it is necessary to consider about the impact on losing land for agriculture, the impact on rice productivity, assess the impact on crop water demand and other. The result of this assessment is useful for policymakers for forming the agriculture development plan.

关键词： 广西   气候变化   农业   影响   进展   展望  

摘要： 为全面了解气候变化对广西农业的影响,以期为广西农业趋利避害、适应与减缓气候变化,尽可能降低气候风险对粮食安全和农业经济可持续发展造成的不利影响提供理论依据,并为今后相关研究工作提供参考,文章简述了气候变化对广西农业气候资源、农业气象灾害、作物生长发育和产量、种植制度和品种布局、农业病虫害等方面影响的研究进展与存在问题,并展望了该领域未来重点研究方向。在气候变暖背景下,广西热量资源呈增加趋势、光照资源呈减少趋势、水分资源变化趋势不明显但年际间变化较大,从而造成农作物发育期、品种布局和种植制度的变化;干旱、洪涝、高温等农业气象灾害有明显加重的趋势,作物灌溉需水量增长,作物病虫害加剧,使农业生产的不稳定性增大,造成作物产量波动加大,作物品质和产量下降。总体上看,气候变化对广西农业的影响利弊共存,以不利为主。未来应加强农业气候资源和农业气象灾害变化归因研究,在考虑多因子变量综合影响下,改进目前气候变化对农业影响的研究方法,丰富和扩展广西气候变化影响评估的领域,加强气候资源高效利用与农业适应技术及其示范基地试验的研究。

关键词： 气候变化   农业   影响   应对措施   山西忻州  

摘要： 本文根据忻州农业生产的实际情况,分析了气候变化对农业的影响,包括气象灾害对农业生产的影响,气候变化对土壤及肥力变化的影响,气候变化对作物种植系统、生产结构和地区分布的影响等,并从政策措施实施、农业基础设施建设、农业技术选择、气候灾害预警和响应功能建设等方面提出了农业生产应对气候变化的措施,以期为减轻气候变化对忻州市农业生产的不利影响提供参考。

关键词： 气候变化   农业可持续发展   熵权法   影响因素  

摘要： 系统分析气候变化背景下农业气候资源和农业社会经济对农业可持续发展的影响,可以为区域调整农业种植结构和农业政策制定提供有力的科学依据。本文以2013-2018年高台县农业发展为例,构建了评价指标体系,运用熵权法对农业可持续发展水平进行综合测评。结果表明:6年间,高台县农业可持续发展水平呈现持续提升态势,向着可持续发展方向有序推进;农业气候资源有向农业生产适宜方向缓慢转变趋势,但总体发展水平略滞后于农业社会经济发展水平;农业社会经济发展水平逐年提升,逐渐成为推动高台县农业现代化进程中的主导性力量;农药使用量、相对湿度、化肥施用量、农业机械总动力、降水量、平均气温是影响高台县农业可持续发展的主要因素。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产  

摘要： 农业是我国国民经济发展的支柱性产业,农业生产情况直接影响我国社会经济发展。因全球气候变暖现象不断加重,武夷山气候也发生了显著变化,对农业生产的影响较大。本文结合武夷山气温和降水量资料,分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响,并给出了相关的防御对策,以确保粮食高产丰收。

关键词： 新型冠状病毒肺炎   非常规风险事件   农业风险管理  

摘要： 农业同时受到常规风险事件与非常规风险事件的影响。所以,一个完善的农业风险管理体系是重要的,有利于稳定农业生产,促进农业经济发展。然而,我国农业风险管理体制处于发展的初级阶段,存在若干问题:一是侧重于自然灾害等常规风险事件,对于新型冠状病毒肺炎等非常规风险事件的政策措施较少;二是以事中风险控制和事后风险管理为主,对事前风险防控的重视程度不足;三是,作为农业风险管理体系重要构成部分,农业保险的风险保障功能有待完善。特别是产品供给结构单一、赔付程序欠合理以及保费补贴不全面。因而必须进一步健全农业风险管理体系:一是构建常规风险事件和非常规风险事件的应急管理机制;二是完善事前风险防控、事中风险控制和事后风险管理的政策措施;三是建立多层次的农业保险产品体系,优化农业保险赔付程序,完善保费补贴机制。

关键词： FEW nexus   Paddy rice   Climate change   Productivity   Irrigation requirement   Footprint  

摘要： This study aimed to assess the holistic impacts of climate change and irrigation management on food centric water-energy-land interlinkages in the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) nexus specialized in agriculture. Accordingly, we analyzed the trends and variation in productivity, irrigation requirement, and energy input for paddy rice production, which is the representative crop in Korea, from 1990 to 2099 with eight general circulation models (GCMs) as climate change scenarios. Results showed that the productivity of paddy rice would decrease owing to climate change, and its variation would increase. Irrigation requirement under the MIROC-ESM scenario was estimated as 849mm year(-1) in 2020-2099, which was 37mm year(-1) greater than that in 1990-2018. The change in irrigation management from continuous to intermittent irrigation would affect the interlinkages in the agricultural FEW nexus. Intermittent irrigation could positively influence irrigation water savings but lower productivity under climate change, and would increase the variation in both productivity and irrigation requirement. Finally, we analyzed the blue water and land footprints as interlinkage indicators in the FEW nexus. In particular, we classified the simulation results from eight GCMs in 2020-2099 based on footprints and precipitation through K-means clustering to assess the differences between footprints under various precipitation conditions. The largest number of cases was classified in the cluster characterized by large blue water footprints but small land footprints under low precipitation. These results could help develop the agricultural FEW nexus platform considering the various impacts of climate change and irrigation management.