关键词： Climate variability   Crop production   Yields   Food security   Rain-fed  

摘要： Climate change and variability are a major threat to the agricultural sector globally. It is widely accepted that the changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, sea water level and concentration of CO(2)in the atmosphere will have the most devastating impacts on agricultural production. This paper examines the past and future crop production and food security in Kenya under variable climate. From the review, it is evident that the country is already experiencing episodes of climate change, manifested by seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature of varying severity and duration despite overreliance on rain-fed agriculture. The findings also reveal that climate change would continue to negatively affect crop production and food security to the already vulnerable communities in the arid and semi-arid areas. Future projections also indicate that climate variability will likely alter cropping patterns and yields in several regions. As the country is faced with a high population growth rate and rapid urbanization, crop production and food security systems need to become more adaptive as uncertainties of projected climate variability and change unfold. This study is important in providing decision makers and interested stakeholders with a detailed assessment of climate impacts and adaptation strategies geared towards improved crop production and food security.

关键词： Maharashtra   climate change   rainfall   temperature   agricultural crops   trends  

摘要： The present investigation attempts to understand the near-term (up to 2050) and distant (up to 2100) future climatic changes over Maharashtra. Trend analysis of projected monsoon rainfall and temperature was carried out with the use of parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques. All the meteorological sub-divisions in Maharashtra reveal a significant increase in monsoon rainfall during 2015-2100 (by 150-210 mm), except Konkan. In a near-term future, parts of the Vidarbha Sub-division and Western Ghats exhibit a significant increase in rainfall by 82-225 mm. Almost the entire state is very likely to experience a rise in annual mean temperature (AMT) by 0.5-2.5 degrees C up to 2050. The state is very likely to experience considerably warmer conditions post-2033. In particular, parts of Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra Sub-divisions will register significant warming (by 1-2.5 degrees C). The estimations also signify a marginal increase in AMT during the post-2070 period. The annual maximum temperature (AMXT) does not show a considerable rise;however, the annual minimum temperature (AMNT) is expected to increase (by < 1.2 degrees C) significantly over about 80% of the districts in Maharashtra. These climatic changes are very likely to affect the productivity of principal crops in Maharashtra including sorghum, pearl millet, sugarcane, wheat, rice and cotton. Under the future climate change scenario, therefore, it will be a great challenge for agronomist and policymakers to formulate a judicial plan for sustainable agriculture.

关键词： chill models   chill requirement   heat requirement   Prunus sp   spring frost risk   temperate trees   warm winters  

摘要： Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0 degrees C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.

关键词： 农业   气候变化   农业碳排放   农业经济系统脆弱性   应对策略  

摘要： 农业生产每年排放约80亿吨温室气体,农业的总排放大约占据全球排放的四分之一,已成为温室气体的第二大碳排放源。农业减排在应对气候变化中扮演着越来越重要角色。同时,农业也是最易遭受气候变化负面影响的产业,全球气候变化引发的极端天气使我国农业生产不稳定性增加,未来会更加严重。农业生产与气候之间的关系以及其响应机制引起了越来越多国内外学者的关注。本文面向农业部门应对气候变化的重要现实需求,以空间计量经济学理论、脆弱性理论、价值信念规范理论、解释水平理论、理性选择理论为基础,首先,基于气候变化—农业部门—经济系统分析框架,对我国农业经济系统的脆弱性进行了分析,揭示气候变化对农业部门的影响及在经济系统的传导机制;其次,基于减排视角,通过构建空间计量模型,分析我国农业二氧化碳排放的影响因素及其空间溢出效应,揭示实现农业减排的重要途径;再次,基于行为视角分析农户应对气候变化的行为方式,研究农民在气候变化下的行为偏好,激励农民在农业生产中提高气候适应能力,进而提高农业部门的气候韧性。本文主要工作内容如下:第一,分析气候变化对农业部门的影响及在经济系统的传导机制,评估了我国农业部门的经济系统脆弱性。通过构建非可操作性投入产出模型(IIM)以及动态非可操作性投入产出模型(DIIM),从生产要素限制角度研究适应气候变化的关键部门。IIM模型研究结果表明,随着气候的变化,农业部门的不可操作性增加。情景(RCP 8.5)中,农业部门不可操作性为0.048,这意味着要满足气候变化引起日益增长的粮食需求,农业部门的初始投入要增加4.8%。同时研究结果表明,气候变化对农业部门的影响会传递到其他经济部门。在不同浓度路径(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)情景下,所有部门的不可操作性排序是相同的,这意味着气候变化通过农业部门对经济系统影响的传导路径是稳定的,其中受影响最大的5个部门依次为第3部门(食品和烟草)、第6部门(炼油、炼焦和化学产品)、第11部门(电力、热力、燃气和水的生产和供应)、第2部门(采掘业)以及第13部门(批发零售、运输仓储邮政),这些关键部门承受的影响占总影响70%,这说明农业需求变动带来的经济影响不可小觑。DIIM模型研究结果表明,如果农业部门由于气候变动而突然出现需求变动,则第6部门具有最高的不可操作性极限,需要较长的时间恢复正常运行。第二,从农业投入、经济发展、农业生产三个维度构建空间计量经济模型,分析农业碳排放影响因素的区域差异性,并计算了影响因素的空间溢出效应。研究结果表明,中国各省农业碳排放影响因素呈现出“双赢”或“弱—弱”联盟的区域关联模式,属于互补的区域关联模式较少。空间计量结果表明,人均农业生产总值、施肥总量、人均机械总动力均对农业碳排放有正向影响,其系数分别为0.32,0.0083,0.18。从弹性的大小可以推断,人均农业生产总值增长是农业碳排放的主要驱动因素,虽然施肥总量对农业碳排放增长有一定的作用,但与前两者相比,其作用相对较小。与之相反,农业产值比重、农村用电量、城镇化水平均对农业碳排放具有抑制作用,其系数分别为-0.29、-0.37、-0.075。其中,农村用电量、农业经济结构的减排效用显著,且存在明显空间溢出效应,人口流动也可以直接影响农业减排。第三,从市场经济和风险防范的角度,分析了我国农业保险市场在参与主体有限理性策略作用下所表现出的“供给大于需求”的均衡状态。构建政府参与的“农民—保险公司”演化博弈模型,通过稳定策略分析与仿真实验,考察保险市场均衡状态形成的机制。研究结果表明,农户搭便车行为,政府运营补贴都不利于农民的投保行为;保险公司赔付率、自然灾害发生概率以及一定程度的保费上涨均会对农民的投保行为产生积极影响。研究从理论和实践角度揭示了提高农民投保积极性的重要途径。第四,从微观角度,以农区与农牧区农民为例,考察农民不同心理因素(信任、信念、心理距离、风险显著性、风险感知)对实施应对策略的影响,为发展中国家加强对气候变化影响应对政策的一般性讨论提供基础。研究结果表明,在农区,风险显著性、心理距离对农户的适应性行为选择影响比较显著,风险感知仅对农区农户的缓解行为产生影响,农户的缓解行为可以促进其适应行为,信任不仅能预测农户适应性,还可以解释农户对缓解行为的选择。在农牧区,信念、风险显著性水平、信任对农户适应与缓解行为的驱动作用显著。研究结果为风险沟通和公共政策提供了建议,为农业部门规划有效的应对战略提供了决策依据。本文的贡献体现在两个方面:在理论上,补充了农民应对气候变化的行为理论研究的不足,提出了一个适用于评估气候变化对农业经济系统脆弱性影响的分析框架。在实践上,本研究有助于政府评估和建立科学合理的农业碳减排目标,帮助各区域通过适度规制、差异化投入实现农业绿色经济增长,同时也为提高农民适应气候变化能

关键词： 《南华早报》   气候变化   数字技术   区块链  

摘要： 中国生产了全世界约20%的食物。作为全球最大的农业经济体,中国不仅生产了全球18%的谷物、29%的肉类和50%的蔬菜,还是最大的猪肉、小麦、大米、茶叶、棉花和鱼类生产国。与此同时,中国还通过精准扶贫迅速改善国民生活,仅2013年以来就有近1亿人脱贫。不过,经济学家米歇尔·格拉希认为,中国农民年人均1,200美元的收入仍然偏低。其中,农村活动收入约占一半,其他来自打零工和家人汇款。

关键词： 交际翻译   信息型文本   气候变化   粮食安全  

摘要： 气候变化是全人类面临的一个重大挑战,即使是轻微的气候波动,都有可能给农业生产带来一定的负面影响,甚至造成粮食危机。目前,气候变化已经削减了全球粮食产量,在未来,数百万人或将面临贫困和饥饿的风险。一直以来,我国不断探索农业发展道路,在农业科技、经济和社会各个方面都取得了巨大成就,但气候变化带来的环境、生态等方面的问题毫无疑问正制约着我国农业生产,给粮食安全带来不稳定因素。粮食安全问题关乎人民生计、关乎国家发展。鉴于此,笔者选取《多维视角下气候变化条件对粮食安全和土地使用的影响》(Food Security and Land Use Change under Conditions of Climatic Variability:A Multidimensional Perspective)作为翻译材料,该文本介绍了气候变化下与粮食安全相关的各种因素,有助于我们加深气候变化对于粮食安全影响的具体认识,为保障粮食安全、促进我国农业可持续生产提供借鉴意义。本次实践报告以纽马克交际翻译理论为指导,从词汇、句法和语篇三个层面分析了农业科技文本的翻译方法。词汇层面,需考虑词性转换、确定恰当的词义,如将名词、介词转译为动词,形容词转译为名词;将作者使用的不常用搭配、带有表达性因素的词汇译出通俗易懂、能精确表示语境意义的词义。句法层面的方法包括被动转主动、非人称主语转人称主语、增译与省译、拆分,如通过指明主语、增加泛指主语将被动转主动;将抽象名词主语、部分there be句式中的非人称主语转为人称主语;在不增添或删减原文意思的前提下译出隐含的逻辑和语义;拆分一句话中较难处理的翻译单位,将这些翻译单位拆成小句单独译出。语篇层面,注意结合上下文,在保证句内通顺的同时,关注语篇衔接的处理与语篇的连贯性。希望这些方法能为同类型文本的翻译提供一定参考和帮助。

关键词： Climate change   East Africa   Environmental vulnerability   Land use modeling   Landscape change   Vegetation dynamics  

摘要： The Mount Elgon Ecosystem (MEE), an important hydrological and socio-economic area in East Africa, has exhibited significant landscape changes, driven by both natural factors and human activities, therefore leading to more frequent natural disasters (frequent and extended droughts, floods, and landslides). Yet, few studies have focused on the MEE socio-ecological system; no comprehensive knowledge exists of how humans and nature interact, at multiple scales, to drive ecosystem-wide landscape changes. This dissertation focuses on three interrelated questions: (1.) What is the nature and magnitude of change in MEE greenness for the period 2001-2018, and how is this change related to long-term trends and variability in MEE precipitation? (2.) How is ecological and environmental (eco-environmental) vulnerability distributed across the MEE, and what are the major factors driving these patterns? and (3.) How will the MEE landscape change in the future, and what opportunities exist for streamlining livelihood improvement and environmental conservation efforts? Study 1 characterized comprehensively, over multiple time scales, recent patterns and trends in MEE vegetation greening and browning. The MEE was found to exhibit significant variability in vegetation dynamics and precipitation regimes. There was persistent greening and browning at different time scales and this change was attributed to both natural factors (including changing precipitation) and anthropogenic factors (especially the vegetation-to-cropland conversion). The study also concluded that MEE precipitation had increased substantially in the post-2000 era, which influenced greening and browning patterns observed in the 2006-2010 period. The integration of Mann–Kendall, Sen’s slope and bfast (breaks for additive season and trend) proved useful in comprehensively characterizing recent changes in vegetation greenness within the MEE. Study 2 examined eco-environmental vulnerability for the MEE using freely availa

关键词： 功能对等   句法   语篇   农业科技文本  

摘要： 当今气候变化对全球各个国家的发展都构成了生存威胁,尤其是发展中国家,气候变化引发的粮食问题日益严重,而新冠疫情更冲击了全球粮食的发展和供应。虽然我国在加速农业现代化,促进农业新发展方面一直稳步前进,但依然不可避免地遭受着气候变化带来的不利影响。因此,全面深刻地了解气候变化和粮食安全,确保粮食安全、实现农业现代化对我国建设现代化国家有着至关重要的作用。但是,在目前的翻译领域,尤其是科技文本的翻译中,针对农业领域的还较少,一方面影响了我们对全球农业的了解,另一方面也不利于我国农业的交流。鉴于此,笔者选取了《多维视角下气候变化条件对粮食安全和土地使用的影响》这本书作为翻译材料。通过对本书的翻译,希望能够为中国农业的现代化建议提供积极的借鉴意义,以此来推动中国农业的高质量发展。本次实践报告基于功能对等理论,从句法层面和语篇层面对农业类科技文本的翻译进行分析。句法层面主要从名词化、被动句以及句子结构三方面入手,语篇层面涉及指示照应词、连接和重复三个角度。通过分析发现:句法层面可以把原文中名词处理为动词,尤其是科技文本中动词名词化这种现象,在翻译为汉语时可以调整为相应的动词。原文句子中的被动语态可调整为主动语态,采用“据…”或者“受…”这种表达形式则更易于译语读者接受。此外,在翻译过程中要对原文英语句子结构进行调整,尤其是句子表达的逻辑顺序。顺序的调整多针对原文中的表态类、阐述事实或原因类的句子,而对于原文中的长句,尤其是含有大量从句的句子,要进行切分和调整。语篇层面,翻译时可采用照应、连接和重复等衔接手段保证句子的逻辑和形式。针对原文中的指示照应词可以采取省略照应词,翻译所指代的具体内容来保证语篇连贯;科技文本连接词使用十分频繁,为保证语篇的连贯和完整可以采取保留连接词的翻译方法;对于语篇中使用词汇衔接手段——重复法,在翻译时亦可以采取重复这一手段,尤其是中心词的重复等。笔者发现,通过以上翻译方法能够提高农业类科技文本译文的规范性、准确性、可读性。

关键词： 农业全要素生产率   气候变化   农业科研投入  

摘要： 未来中国农业需要向高效、资源节约及环境友好的可持续发展模式转变,与此同时,气候变化给人类赖以生存的农业可持续性发展带来了严峻挑战。如何保持农业经济持续增长的关键在于提升农业TFP,而气候变化通过对农业产出及投入水平的影响给农业TFP的提升施加了巨大的不确定性,农业科研投入在适应气候变化对农业生产影响方面预期能发挥决定性的作用,因此如何应对气候变化带来的影响是亟待回答的问题。基于此本文使用1987～2015年的农业TFP、农业科研投入及气候变化数据,试图同时考察气候变化和农业科研投入对农业TFP的影响,并分析农业科研投入在应对气候变化对农业TFP影响方面发挥的潜在作用。这也将是气候变化研究领域,首次尝试通过科研投入机制缓解气候变化对农业TFP影响的探索性研究。研究发现:1.农业TFP的增长显著地受到了气候变化的影响。从整体上看,全年平均气温上升有利于促进农业TFP的提升,当平均温度上升1℃时,农业TFP会提高0.12%。年降水量的增加会抑制农业TFP的增长,当年降水量每增加1000mm时,农业TFP会下降1.68%。衡量极端气候的降水密度、高温状况及低温状况均对农业TFP有显著的负向影响,当降水密度、高温及低温状况上升1%时,农业TFP分别会下降0.27%、0.12%及1.05%。2.农业科研投入对农业TFP的增长有显著的正向促进作用。农业科研投入可以推动农业创新发展和促进技术进步,而农业TFP增长很大程度上依赖农业技术进步。3.其他社会经济变量也会显著影响农业TFP的增长。农业结构的回归系数显著为负,即粮食作物播种面积占比的增加不利于提升我国农业TFP。农村公路密度、灌溉面积占比与农村用电量对农业TFP的影响显著为正,表明农村的基础设施越完善越有利于农业TFP的增长。4.全年气温均值与年降水量对农业TFP的影响在区域上存在差异。具体来看,除华南地区全年气温均值对农业TFP有显著的负向作用及东北地区影响不显著之外,华东、华北、华中、西南及西北地区的全年气温均值上升都有利于农业TFP的增长。华北、东北和西北年降水量的增加有利于促进农业TFP的增长,而华东、华南、西南和华中地区年降水量的增加会抑制农业TFP的提升。大多数地区的降水密度、高温及低温状况对农业TFP具有显著的负向作用。5.农业科研投入在应对气候变化对农业TFP影响方面发挥了作用,但这种作用效果在空间区域上也存在明显的差异性。例如,华北及东北地区的农业科研投入很好地应对了气温以及降水密度对农业TFP的影响,却没适应年降水量变化对农业TFP的影响。最后,基于以上结论,本文提出以下建议:政府在制定气候变化适应性政策时需要正确认识到气候变化对农业TFP的影响具有显著的地域差异性,不可采取“一刀切”的办法;我国应该加大农业科研投入力度,尤其是加大对西北、西南、东北及华中地区的农业科研投入力度;各地区农业发展在适应气候变化方面,应该理清实际需求,对症下药以不断提升农业科研投资领域与效率。