关键词： 气候变化   雨养农业区   气温   降水量   时空变化  

摘要： 为了探索影响雨养农业区农业生产的关键气象要素——气温和降水的变化特征,以甘肃省雨养农业区55个气象站1971-2015年气温和降水实测资料为基础,采用线性倾向率法、空间插值及Mann-Kendall法对研究区气温和降水量的时空变化特征及突变进行了分析。结果表明:近45年来,甘肃省雨养农业区气温呈明显的上升趋势,以0.36℃·10a^-1的速率显著增暖,20世纪90年代后进入快速增温阶段,且在1996年发生突变;年降水量总体呈减少趋势,存在强烈波动变化,以-2.57 mm·10a^-1的速率缓慢下降,1988年发生突变。从空间分布来看,年均气温总体呈现出由北向南、由西向东递增的规律,气温随海拔升高而降低,而气温倾向率呈现出由北向南、由西向东递减的规律,以甘南高海拔地区增温速率最大,达0.47℃·10a^-1;研究区降水量空间变化不规律,呈现出研究区中部地区降水少,四周降水较多的空间格局,降水量随海拔升高而逐渐增大,而降水倾向率自西向东递减,陇东半干旱地区出现降水量小幅度的增加,变化速率为2.54 mm·10a^-1,气温及降水变化具有明显的空间差异性。陇东地区呈现暖湿化态势,其他区域整体朝着暖干化方向发展。

关键词： 气候特征   农业生产   广西凌云县  

摘要： 选取广西壮族自治区百色市凌云县国家气象观测站1981—2019年逐月平均气温和降水量资料,利用线性倾向估计法对凌云县气候变化特征及其对农业生产的影响进行分析。结果表明:1981—2019年凌云县年平均气温、四季平均气温均呈现出增加的趋势,但气候倾向率有一定的差异;凌云县年降水量、四季降水量均呈现出增加的趋势,以年、春季和夏季降水量增加趋势最为显著,其中春季和夏季对年降水量呈增加趋势贡献最大;气候变化会加剧农作物病虫害、气温增加则会导致农作物减产和引发干旱灾害,不利于优质高产农作物的形成。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   影响   应对措施  

摘要： 气候变暖是全球性问题,对农业生产影响巨大。中国是传统的农业大国,气候变化会加剧农业气象灾害和病虫害,影响农产品的产量与质量。该文分析了气候变化对农业气象灾害和病虫害的影响,并提出完善预警机制、创新病虫害防治技术、完善排水系统、提升大棚种植水平等应对措施,以期降低气候变化对农业生产造成的负面影响,保证农业稳定发展。

关键词： adaptation   agriculture   air temperature   climate change   precipitation   water resource  

摘要： In recent years, climate change in Central Asia, especially in Uzbekistan, has resulted in sharp alternation of dry and wet years. In such conditions, agriculture has turned into the most vulnerable sector. Agricultural producers have not been able to adapt to such variations of climatic conditions. Traditional irrigation approaches and agronomic operations are becoming unacceptable against the background of severe droughts or heavy rains. Moreover, intra-annual distribution of precipitation and air temperature has changed. Especially in agriculture, increased rainfall in spring and summer and decreased rainfall in autumn and winter has had a negative impact. In 2013, the Global Water Partnership initiated the Water, Climate, and Development Programme for Caucasus and Central Asia. In the Fergana Valley of Uzbekistan, a project was implemented to study the possibility of agriculture adaptation to climate change within the framework of this programme. This article presents an analysis of long-term data received from 1960 to 2014 on air temperature and precipitation. As a result of these studies, it has been determined that we can forecast the current year's weather conditions if we find a similar year in recent years. For the Fergana Valley of Uzbekistan, it has been established that we have a stable spring, when winter is cold with heavy precipitation, and we have a cold spring and summer with high precipitation, when we have a warm winter with low precipitation. Past experience has shown that the use of water for irrigation, taking into account climatic conditions, has a significant impact on reducing irrigation water and increasing crop yields. (c) 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

关键词： Adaptation strategy   Agricultural technology   Crop type   Management practice  

摘要： Few efforts have been reported about climate change effects on agriculture production from smallholder farmers' conditions. The objective of this study was to assess smallholder farmers' understanding on the effects of climate change on agriculture production in Dura catchment, northern Ethiopia. Data were collected using group discussions and semi-structured interview of 79 sample household heads from the study catchment. Data were subjected to descriptive, Chi square and t test. The majority of the respondents reported that variability in management practices and farm and institutional attributes influenced significantly farmers understanding of the effects of climate change on agricultural production. A significantly higher proportion of farmers (98%) identified food and feed shortage as the major indicators of the effects of climate change on production. Significantly higher proportions of farmers reported that there are crop types towards disappearing from farmers fields (e.g., barley, sorghum) and livestock (e.g., horse), reduced in area coverage (e.g., lentil, faba bean), expanded in area coverage (e.g., tef, maize, chick pea, cauliflower, tomato) in response to climatic change effects. Farmers' also classified the different crops into different sensitivity classes as 57% of the farmers reported that tef is not sensitive to climate change effects. A significantly higher proportion of farmers (98%) confirmed that one of the potential and serous impacts of climate change is to decrease in economics of the community. Promotion of robust adaptation strategies such as water harvesting, irrigation, stress tolerant crop varieties, in the context of climate change are thus suggested for the conditions of smallholder farmers' in northern Ethiopia.

关键词： Agriculture   Climate change   Adaptation strategy   Probit model   Northern Bangladesh  

摘要： Adaptation is an emerging issue to control the threatening consequences of climate change in the agricultural sector particularly. The present study aimed to identify the adopted strategies by the farmers and contributing factors that affected the adaptation strategies in the northern region of Bangladesh. The quantitative and qualitative methods were adopted to analyze the collected data through an authoritative purposive sampling technique and finally interpreted and discussed. The results of adaption strategies showed different variations on pesticides usage. The probit model indicated that age, education, the cultivated area in an acre, housing pattern, perception on climate change and meal per day influence the farmers to triggers an adaptive strategy. The results of the binary logit model are also consistent with the probit model findings. The multi-nominal logit model indicated that age, sex, total cultivated area, and perception of climate change have negatively influenced to adopt strategy 2 (use pesticides), while age, family size and perception of climate change have positively influenced the farmers to adopt strategy 5 (use pesticides + take financial loan). As the farmers in these regions are highly dependent on traditional farming practices, thus, this study suggests that the combinations of the farmers' indigenous knowledge with well-developed methodical adaptive measures are required to improve the socioeconomic livelihood of the farmers in the northern part of Bangladesh.

关键词： Irrigation water demand   Climate change   Water price   Agro-economic supply model  

摘要： Pressures on resources and climate change are likely to strongly impact the availability of water, which directly affects agricultural systems. To estimate these impacts, we develop a prospective approach combining an agricultural supply side economic model and a crop model. We extend previous work by incorporating water resource constraints and apply our model to a large part of the French agricultural sector under three climate scenarios over 2010-2010. Results indicate that, at a given water price, potential change in irrigation water demand would differ strongly according to the region concerned and the scenario applied. In France as a whole, irrigation increases in all scenarios, by 60% under the intermediate scenario, by 40% under the least extreme scenario, and by 20% under the toughest scenario. Differentiating the northern and southern regions, the relative increase is more pronounced in the north, while demand in the south significantly increases under the intermediate scenario and decreases under the toughest scenario. When considering autonomous adaptation of farming systems to climate change, agricultural income in northern regions is likely to be negatively affected to a greater extent than in southern regions.

关键词： Environmental changes   Climate change   Land use change   Water resources   Water deficits   Small catchment  

摘要： The aims of this study are: i) to better understand the coupled interactions between land use changes, climate change and the aquatic ecosystem in a small agricultural catchment (<100 km(2)) with a long observation history (1963-2018) and a known land use history, and ii) to test available approaches to separate land use and climate change impacts on water resources in such a small catchment. The pre- and post-change periods have been separated based on change points and the known land use history. Next, conceptual and analytical approaches were applied to quantify and to distinguish between the impacts of climate and land use changes on annual runoff for these two periods. Over the observation period, both land use changes (increase in forest areas) as well as climate change (a temperature rise and a decrease in annual precipitation) occurred. These changes contributed to a decrease in the average annual runoff by 51.9 mm (49% of the long-term average) during the observation period. The quantified contributions of climate and land use changes to the decrease in the mean annual runoff amount to between 60% and 80% and between 40% and 20%, respectively. (i) The results obtained from different methods were consistent - a change in runoff was primarily caused by shifts in climatic variables. (ii) However, the quantified contributions varied depending on the method applied and the form of the Budyko curve. (iii) Thus, special care should be taken in relation to the selection of the Budyko curve for quantifying these changes. (iv) Knowledge of the water deficit sources can result in better planning of water resources management in such small catchments.

关键词： greenhouse gas   the Denitrification-Decomposition model (DNDC)   water demand   planting structure   climate change  

摘要： The agriculture sector is one of the largest users of water and a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The development of low-GHG-emission and water-conserving agriculture will inevitably be the trend in the future. Because of the physiological differences among crops and their response efficiency to external changes, changes in planting structure, climate and input of production factors will have an impact on regional agricultural water use and GHG emissions. This paper systematically analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of crop planting structure, climate, and production factor inputs in Heilongjiang Province, the main grain-producing region of China, from 2000 to 2015, and quantified the regional agricultural water use and GHG emissions characteristics under different scenarios by using the Penman-Monteith formula and the Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model. The results showed that the global warming potential (GWP) increased by 15% due to the change in planting structure. A large increase in the proportion of rice and corn sown was the main reason. During the study period, regional climate change had a positive impact on the water-saving and emission reduction of the agricultural industry. The annual water demand per unit area decreased by 19%, and the GWP decreased by 12% compared with that in 2000. The input of fertilizer and other means of production will have a significant impact on GHG emissions from farmlands. The increase in N fertilizer input significantly increased N2O emissions, with a 5% increase in GWP. Agricultural water consumption and carbon emissions are affected by changes in climate, input of means of production, and planting structure. Therefore, multiple regulatory measures should be taken in combination with regional characteristics to realize a new layout of planting structure with low emissions, water conservation, and sustainability.

关键词： Anthropogenic climate change   Plant biostimulants   Drought   Salinity   Cropping systems  

摘要： Anthropogenic climate change, namely climate alterations induced by human activities, is causing some issues to agricultural systems for their vulnerability to extreme events. Forecasts predict a global population increase in the near years that will exacerbate this situation, elevating the global demand for food. It will pose severe concerns in terms of natural resource usage and availability. Agriculture is one of the anthropogenic activities that will be more affected in the future. Climate extremes menace to affect the quantity and quality of crop production severely. Drought, water and soil salinity are considered among the most problematic factors that anthropogenic climate change will increase. This complex and worrying scenario requires the urgent implementation of sustainable measures which are capable of improving crop yield and quality, fostering the robustness and resilience of cropping systems. Among the more current methodology, the use of natural plant biostimulants (PBs) has been proposed to improve plant resistance to abiotic environmental stresses. The advantage of using these substances is due to their effectiveness in improving crop productivity and quality. Therefore, in this review, the most recent researches dealing with the use of natural PBs for improving plant resistance to drought and salinity, in an anthropogenic climate change scenario, have been reported and critically discussed. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.