关键词： 气候   财政支农支出   农业产出   多重共线性  

摘要： 农业是国民经济的命脉,农业生产直接关系到国家经济发展和社会安定,而农业生产容易受气候等因素影响。基于2000—2018年的相关数据,采用回归分析、多重共线性检验及修正等定量方法研究气候变化、财政支农支出等因素对农业生产的影响。结果显示,影响农业产出的因素主要有年均气温、年均降水量、财政支农支出等。其中,气温变化和降水量变化均与农业产出呈负相关,财政支农支出与农业生产呈正相关。因此,应当严格控制CO2排放量,降低温室效应对农业生产造成的负面影响,同时加强对农业生产的扶持力度,提高财政支农支出,以增加农业产出。

关键词： 家庭农场   气候变化   认知   适应性行为  

摘要： 目前,气候变化与自然灾害发生的频率越来越高,而首当其冲受影响的便是农业。论文通过对全国多个粮食主产省份的新型农业经营主体——家庭农场的农户进行问卷调查,发现约有75%的农户能够感受到气候变化及其对农业生产的影响。不同性别、区域、教育背景、务农年限的农户对气候变化的认知程度存在差异,且农户更倾向于依靠自身的力量来适应气候变化。论文最后提出政府要加大对农业保险和气候变化知识的宣传力度、推进不同特征农户之间合作等政策建议。

关键词： agroclimatic resources   adaptation   grain crops   climate change   long-term dynamics   Northern Kazakhstan   agriculture   steppe zone   dry-steppe zone   yield  

摘要： The long-term dynamics of the average air temperatures and amounts of annual precipitation confirms the reality of climate change since the 1970s on the territory of Akmola oblast, one of the leading agricultural regions in Kazakhstan. The structure of agricultural production in the oblast is dominated by the rainfed cultivation of grain crops, in particular, spring wheat, which is known to be extremely sensitive to climatic and weather conditions. Analysis of the climatic indicators for 1931-2019 based on available data from meteorological stations identified intraregional features of climate change that led to an increase in the yield of grain crops. Correlation analysis established a high dependence of productivity on the climatic conditions of the warm period. If the current level of farming culture and the continued growth of average temperatures persist, the productivity in the dry-steppe and southern steppe regions of the oblast is expected to decrease. In the northern steppe regions, more intense trends in the climatic indicators of the cold months favor an increase in yields and an expansion of agricultural production. Intraregional differences in the intensity of climatic trends must be taken into account for the further development of agriculture in Akmola oblast. The following measures are proposed in order to avoid the negative consequences of climate change: the introduction of adaptation technologies, the diversification of agricultural production, the development of organic agriculture, and active support for agricultural producers.

关键词： Climate change   Deep uncertainty   Water management   Decision making   Adaptation pathways  

摘要： Analysis of climate change impacts as well as conscious decision-making and long-term planning in complex water resources systems require use of innovative approaches under conditions of deep climate uncertainty. This research aims to design and evaluate robust adaptable plans under deep climate uncertainties in the agricultural sector. For this purpose, a combination of the Adaptation Pathways (AP) approach in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to evaluate the robustness of adaptation actions and to design robust adaptation pathways under future climate uncertainties in the Hablehroud River Basin, Iran. Deep climate uncertainties are specified as plausible climate scenario combinations according to the average precipitation and temperature changes in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, 2020-2080. According to the results, changes in cropping patterns represent the most robust adaptation action across various combinations of climate scenarios. Other adaptation actions, including deficit irrigation, changes in crop planting dates, and improving irrigation efficiency, are fairly robust in the specific time period from 2020 to 2080. Sequencing of these adaptation actions based on their robustness and expiry date results in designing adaptation pathway maps under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Finally, different preferred pathways are identified based on the expiry date of each robust adaptation action. Changes in cropping patterns can be selected as the most robust adaptation pathway (robustness greater than 80) under deep climate uncertainty among these different pathways. Suggesting other preferred pathways can be helpful to select reasonable pathways for implementation.

关键词： 协同创新   边际土地   科研人员   覆盖作物   区域协作   加拿大农业   养分管理   未来十年  

摘要： 加拿大农业与农业食品部宣布,未来十年将为新的“农业应对气候变化解决方案”(ACS)投入1.85亿加元。该计划将分两个阶段进行。第一阶段将于4月1日启动,向每个项目提供10万加元,支持各省提出区域协作中心即“生活实验室”(“LivingLabs”)方案。每个区域协作中心将以农场为中心,农民和科研人员开展协同创新,采取种植覆盖作物、边际土地永久覆盖、防护林、养分管理、间作、与豆类轮作等措施提高土壤肥力,储存碳和保护环境。第二阶段将于今年秋季启动,每个项目最高可获得1000万加元的资助。

关键词： 气候变化   中国农业   全球变暖   应对策略  

摘要： 全球气候变化已经严重威胁到了我国农业生产发展,对粮食生产安全也产生了直接影响,全球变暖已经成为当下各国较为关注的热点话题。粮食作为人类发展的根本,对于任何一个国家来说,没有任何危机比粮食危机影响更大,涉及范围更广,为此根据实际调查资料对我国气候变化对农业发展进行系统的分析。

关键词： 气候变化   中亚地区   雨养农业区   水土资源   匹配格局   时空差异   粮食安全  

摘要： 中亚地区是落实我国“一带一路”发展倡议的关键地区,雨养农业区作为中亚重要粮食主产区,对世界和区域粮食安全具有重要意义。本文基于参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的7个全球气候模式(GCM),分析了未来30 a(2021—2050年)气候变化情景下中亚雨养农业区降水量的空间分布及其变化趋势;然后根据适宜农作物种植的高程、坡度和土壤类型等条件,识别出雨养农业区宜农耕地分布;采用基于数列匹配度和单位面积水资源量法,预估了未来中亚雨养农业区水土资源匹配格局的时空变化。研究结果表明:(1)未来气候变化情景下,中亚雨养农业区年均降水空间分布自东北向西南降低,东部地区降水呈弱增加趋势,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下降水增幅分别为1.10 mm·a^(-1)和1.61 mm·a^(-1),西部呈减少趋势,但不显著;与RCP4.5情景相比,21世纪中期,RCP8.5情景下全年可利用降水量增加了9.8 mm。(2)宜农耕地资源丰富,空间分布差异相对较小,北部地区以现有耕地为主,南部和东部地区后备耕地资源充足。(3)在两种RCP情景下,中亚雨养农业区未来30 a水土资源匹配度大部分处于0.6以上,总体处于较好匹配水平,且RCP8.5情景优于RCP4.5;与全年水土匹配相比,生长季水土资源空间匹配极不均衡,东部和北部地区匹配系数大部分处于0.84以上,而南部和西部地区均低于0.70。总体上,未来气候变化将对中亚雨养农业区粮食生产产生双重影响,本文也提出提升应对气候变化能力的相关措施。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害影响研究  

摘要： 在国民经济发展过程中,农业生产对现代人日常生活具有极其重要的价值,相关单位必须对其加强重视,在近年来,气候变化使其农业生产病虫害和农业气象灾害频繁。本文分别探究气候变化在病虫害和农业气象灾害方面的具体彩响,希望能够对其病害进行有效控制,提升作物产量。

关键词： climate change   crop yield   herbicides   integrated weed management   weed competition  

摘要： Weeds represent a significant threat to crop yields and global food security. We analysed data on weed competition from the world's longest running agricultural experiment to ask whether potential yield losses from weeds have increased in response to management and environmental change since the advent of the Green Revolution in the 1960s. On plots where inorganic nitrogen fertiliser has been applied, potential yield losses from weeds have consistently increased since 1969. This was explained by a warming climate, measured as air temperature averaged over the growing season for the weeds, and a shift towards shorter crop cultivars. Weeds also reduced yield proportionally more on plots with higher rates of nitrogen which had higher yields when weeds were controlled;the relative benefit of herbicides was, therefore, proportional to potential crop yield. Reducing yield losses from weed competition is increasingly challenging because of the evolution of herbicide resistance. Our results demonstrate that weeds now represent a greater inherent threat to crop production than before the advent of herbicides and integrated, sustainable solutions to weed management are urgently needed to protect the high yield potential of modern crop genotypes.

关键词： Irrigation  

摘要： Over 90% of Swedish agriculture is rainfed, and thus future climate change can pose a risk to agricultural production in coming decades. An overall increase in annual precipitation is predicted for northern Europe, but Sweden could still face an increasing need for irrigation, as shown by the drought summer of 2018. Adaptation of Swedish agriculture to include irrigated agriculture should thus be considered. To evaluate the theoretical need for irrigation, calculations were performed for different locations in Sweden, and for different soil-crop pairs at each location. In-situ weather data from a projected climate dataset created by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute were used to evaluate changes in irrigation need over the period 1981-2050. The results showed an increasing need for irrigation of cereal crops during the early season (May-June), for two main reasons: i) A shift to an earlier start of the cropping period, leading to an earlier need for irrigation;and ii) a higher probability of dry spring weather, substantially increasing the irrigation requirement in dry years. Crops for which the growing season starts later (e.g., potatoes) showed an increasing need for irrigation during July. Crop development stages were predicted to occur earlier, leading to earlier harvesting, reducing the irrigation requirement in August. However, the calculation approach developed for this study may have underestimated the need for irrigation, which could be higher than reported here.