关键词： 气候变化   农业地理分布   温室气体   中国   对策   措施   二氧化碳  

摘要： 依据已有的研究结果， 分析了全球变化的趋势和温室气体（特别是ＣＯ２） 对气候变化的贡献和影响以及气候变化对我国和世界农业地理分布和农业生产的影响。分大区分析了气候变化对水稻、小麦、玉米等影响情况。提出了我国农业对全球气候变化应采取的战略对策和措施， 这些对策和措施可分为减缓温室气体排放和适应气候变化两部分。

摘要： During the past few years two new methods, each based on the analogous region concept, have been developed to account for farmer adaptation in response to global climatic change. The first, called `Ricardian' by Mendelsohn, Nordhaus, and Shaw (1994), econometrically estimates the impact of climatic and other variables on the value of farm real estate. Under some conditions, estimates of climate-induced changes in farm real estate capture first-round adaptations by farmers and represent the economic value of climatic change on agriculture. The second method, promulgated by Darwin et al. (1994) in the Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM), uses a geographic information system to empirically link climatically derived land classes with other inputs and agricultural outputs in an economic model of the world. FARM provides estimates of economic impacts that fully account for all responses by economic agents under global climate change as well as estimates of Ricardian rents. The primary objective of this analysis is to evaluate how well changes in Ricardian rents measure agricultural or other effects of climatic change after all economic agents around the world have responded. Results indicate that changes in Ricardian rents on agricultural land are poor quantitative, but good qualitative, measures of how global climatic change is likely to affect the welfare of agricultural landowners, if one recognizes that increases in Ricardian rents actually indicate losses in landowner welfare and vice versa. Results also indicate that regional changes in Ricardian rents on all land are good qualitative measures of changes in regional welfare. They are poor quantitative welfare measures because they systematically overestimate both benefits and losses and are on average upwardly biased because inflated benefits are larger than exaggerated losses. Results also indicate that, when based on existing land-use patterns, changes in Ricardian rents on all the world's land are poor qua

关键词： agriculture   climate change   land-use decision-making   perception   soil erosion  

摘要： The paper presents the results of questionnaire surveys of two samples of farmers from erosion-prone areas of southeast England. The farmers were questioned about their perceptions of the erosion hazard, of climate change, and of the extent to which these and other factors influenced decision-making on their farms. The erosion hazard has only minor influence on land-use decisions, but the use of low-cost land management practices designed to reduce the erosion risk are widespread, especially in West Sussex. Most farmers believe that the climate has changed in recent years, but impressions of how it has changed are inconsistent. Knowledge of potential future climate change is very limited. The majority of farmers in the two surveys consider erosion to be a minor annoyance to their fanning operations which has minimal impact on their past, present or future agricultural land-use policy. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气象灾害   农业生产   特征分析   气候变化   农业气象  

摘要： 气象灾害是制约云南农业发展的主要自然灾害。作者重点分析了旱涝、低温等几种主要灾害性天气对农业的危害及其基本特征规律。同时提出，正确认识气象灾害，研究其在农业生产生态系统中的地位是十分重要的。

关键词： Watersheds  

摘要： The effect of climate change an quality and quantity of runoff from a northern, agricultural watershed was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, 1996 Version (SWAT96), SWAT's snow evaporation submodel was modified. SWAT was calibrated using water quality and quantity data measured in the Cottonwood River near New Ulm, MN (drainage area: 3400 km(2)). The standard errors after calibration were 3.31 mm, 157 kg/d, 752 kg/d, 3744 kg/d, and 85 tld for mean monthly streamflow, P yield, ammonia (NH3)/organic N yield, nitrate (NOS) yield, and sediment yield, respectively. The standard error for monthly streamflow was 9.62 mm. SWAT96 was then used to simulate the effect on the Cottonwood River watershed of a 2xCO(2) climate scenario, obtained from the Canadian Climate Center's global circulation model. Assuming land cover and land management remained constant, SWAT96 projected a decrease in mean annual streamflow, P yield, NH3/organic N yield, NO3/nitrite (NO2) yield, and sediment yield. Mean monthly values changed significantly for many months of the year under the 2xCO(2) climate scenario. The standard errors in SWAT's baseline simulations, however, were too high for the simulated climate change effects to be measurable for NO3/NO2 and sediment yields. The model assumptions and calibration methods used to obtain the accuracy required for simulating the effects of climate change lead to the conclusions that land use/land cover and land management practices are likely to have a greater impact on water quality than climate change and that SWAT must be calibrated to be used for climate change analysis.

关键词： 厄尔尼诺   气候变化   气象灾害   农业   防灾   减灾  

摘要： 受厄尔尼诺现象的影响，极易出现各种各样的气候异常现象。由气候异常引发的气象灾害也是多种多样的，这对农业生产和社会经济发展产生了较大的影响。气候异常与农业气象灾害有密切的关系。根据气候异常和农业气象灾害发生的特点和规律，建立农业防灾减灾系统，对农业发展有积极作用。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生态环境   种植结构   黑龙江  

摘要： 气候变化趋势是变暖变干对黑龙江省农业生态环境影响有利有弊。为黑龙江省农业生产提供了一个新的机遇。需对农作物种植结构进行适当调整，以适应气候的变化。

关键词： CLIMATIC changes   AGRICULTURE -- United States   CROPS & climate  

摘要： Comments on the effects of climate change on agriculture in the U.S. Quantification of the direct effect of physical changes in climate on agricultural yield; Evaluation of the potential for adaptation; Regression coefficients for rainfall and temperature.

关键词： 厄尔尼诺现象   气候变化   旱涝变化   降水量  

关键词： 中国东部   气候变化   农业生产   时间序列  

摘要： 研究中国东部近2000年来气候变化对农业生产的影响,不仅对揭示中国历史时期气候变化规律有重要意义,而且对今后中国农业生产的发展、农业政策的调整都有实际价值.该文在大量查阅史料文献和前人著作的基础上,分析了中国东部近2000年来的气候变化,表明气候变化既有冷暖和干湿的长期变迁,又有突发性的气候灾害,该文对中国东部2000年来的气候时期进行了划分.该文还以鄂尔多斯高原为例分析了2000年来干湿变化对农牧界线变迁的影响,表明气候寒冷干燥时,农牧过渡带的农业衰退,牧业兴起,农牧界线南退;气候温暖湿润时,农牧过渡带的农业发展,牧业受到抑制,农牧界线北移.该文根据陈高佣的《中国历代天灾人祸表》和张家诚的《历史上重大气候灾害简表》等基础资料,按不同时段建立2000年来水、旱、饥、寒的时间序列,对500御来的序列进行相关分析和功率谱分析.