关键词： agriculture   bioenergy crops   carbon mitigation   carbon sequestration   climate change   Europe   Kyoto Protocol Article 3.4   land management   soil organic carbon   soil organic matter  

摘要： Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO2 emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008-2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land-use/land-management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land-use/land-management. We show that no single land-management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land-management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land-management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long-term land-use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the infrastructure for bioenergy production needs

关键词： climate change   agriculture   Mid-Atlantic   environment   adaptation  

摘要： Agriculture in the Mid-Atlantic Region, like agriculture worldwide, has an intrinsic relationship with climate. This article considers how climate change might affect future Mid-Atlantic agriculture. Our assessment differs from prior work in 2 important ways. First, prior assessments have for the most part examined the impacts of future climate change on present-day agriculture. neglecting the fact that agriculture is likely to change dramatically in the coming century independent of climate change. Second, previous assessments have focused almost exclusively on the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. Societal interest in agriculture, however, is much broader than production because agriculture is a source of both rural amenities and negative environmental impacts. Our assessment suggests that Mid-Atlantic crop and livestock production will probably not change significantly in either direction. There might be changes in the environmental impacts of agricultural production and land use, but we currently lack evidence on the magnitudes and even directions of these changes. Given that agriculture currently has significant negative impacts on water quality in many areas, including the Chesapeake Bay, this should be a high priority for research. In addition, research is needed to understand climate impacts on agriculture's contributions to wildlife habitat, rural landscape amenities and carbon sequestration.

关键词： Agriculture  

摘要： The assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture has emerged as a recognizable field of research over the past 15 years or so. In a relatively short period, this area of work has undergone a number of important conceptual and methodological developments. Among many questions that have been debated are the adaptability of agriculture to climate change and the importance of land management adjustments in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. In turn, this latter focus has spawned a discussion regarding the nature of adaptation and the ability of agriculture to respond to sudden and rapid climatic changes. In this paper we present an overview of this debate. It is argued that the first generation of climate change impact studies generally ignored the possibility that agriculturalists may adjust their farming practices in order to cope with climate change or to take advantage of new production opportunities. This conceptual oversight has been largely eliminated over the past five years or so. However, questions remain surrounding the likelihood that various adaptive strategies will actually be deployed in particular places. In this paper, we stress the importance of studying adaptation in the context of decision-making at the individual farm level and beyond.

关键词： 全球变化   中国   农业   产量   可持续性  

摘要： 气候变化的区域影响愈益成为具有挑战性的问题，尤其是气候变化对农业产量可持续性的影响已引起广泛的关注。基于全球气候变化对中国的影响和区域气候变率分析，提出了粮食气候产量形成模型，并将其应用于黄淮海地区冬小麦水分条件和产量研究，同时对全球气候变化情形下冬小麦产量的变化做出评价。

关键词： adaptation scenarios   climate change   agriculture   Poland  

摘要： This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.

关键词： climatic change   land management   organic carbon   soil   carbon dioxide   emission   UK  

摘要： Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to an 8% reduction in CO2 emissions, compared to baseline (1990) levels, during the first commitment period (2008-2012). However, within the overall EU agreement, the UK is committed to a 12.5% reduction. In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies (Kyoto Article 3.4) and examine the consequences of UK and European policy options on the potential for carbon mitigation. We show that integrated agricultural land management strategies have considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Our figures suggest the following potentials (Tg yr(-1)) for each scenario: animal manure, 3.7;sewage sludge, 0.3;cereal straw incorporation, 1.9;no-till farming, 3.5;agricultural extensification, 3.3;natural woodland regeneration, 3.2 and bioenergy crop production, 4.1. A realistic land-use scenario combining a number of these individual management options has a mitigation potential of 10.4 Tg C yr(-1) (equivalent to about 6.6% of 1990 UK CO2-carbon emissions). An important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land, but in order to fully exploit it, policies governing the use of surplus arable land would need to be changed. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the potential is infinite. The UK will not attempt to meet its climate change commitments solely through changes in agricultural land-use, but since all sources of carbon mitigation will be important in meeting these commitments, agricultural options should be taken very seriously.

关键词： nitrous oxide emissions   inventory   agriculture   Belgium   Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  

摘要： In this study an inventory of N(2)O emissions from agriculture in Belgium was made according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. Three sources of N(2)O were distinguished between: (1) direct N(2)O emissions from agricultural soils (N(2)O-direct), (2) N(2)O emissions due to animal production systems (N(2)O-animals), and (3) indirect N(2)O emissions as a result of N losses from agricultural soils (N(2)O-indirect). In 1996, the total N(2)O emission from agriculture in Belgium was 12.8 x 10(6) kg N(2)O-N. N(2)O-direct, N(2)O-animals and N(2)O-indirect contributed 60%, 7% and 33%, respectively, to the total N(2)O emission. The IPCC methodology tended to give an overestimate of the N(2)O emission from agriculture by 45% when IPCC default values were used instead of country-specific N-input data. Between 1950 and 1996, the total N(2)O emission from agriculture in Belgium increased from 8.4 x 10(6) kg N(2)O-N to 12.8 x 10(6) kg N(2)O-N. This was an increase of 53%, or about 0.1x10(6) kg N(2)O-N-year(-1).

关键词： 气候变化   农业影响   气候变暖   研究综述   农业气象灾害   气候生产潜力   未来气候变化   作物生产潜力   温室效应   种植制度  

摘要： 自 198 5年奥地利“温室气体对气候变化及有关影响”的国际论证会议上提出全球变暖问题以来〔1〕,气候变暖问题已经引起世界范围科学家、政府及公众的高度关注。 19世纪 80年代到 2 0世纪 80年代的 10 0年中 ,全球年平均近地气温上升 0 5℃ ,北半球大陆上升 1℃以上〔2〕。进入 90年代后的 1990年、1995年、1997年、1998年全球平均温度数创历史最高纪录 ,1998年成为有观测记录以来全球最暖的一年〔3〕。最近的研究表明 ,2 0世纪 90年代和 2 0世纪分别是近千年来最暖的 10年和世纪〔4〕。温室效应是全球气候变暖的主要原因 ,这已是一个不争的事实。人类向大气

关键词： 气候变化   大气环流模型   农业生产   气温   降水  

摘要： 根据 1 958～ 1 997年中国 31 0个气象站的月平均最高、最低气温 ,月平均降水量 ,日照时数等气象参数分析了中国气候的背景特征。用 3个大气环流模型 ,即 Had CM2、 CGCM1、ECHAM4来模拟未来中国气候变化的情景。同时 ,建立未来气候变化的 6种方案。最后 ,根据3个 GCMs模拟的结果 ,利用国际应用系统分析研究所 (IIASA)发展并改进的农业生态地带模型 (AEZ)评估气候变化对中国农业生产的影响。评估主要集中于气候变化对不同区域复种指数、可耕种土地面积、潜在粮食产量及其土地生产潜力的影响。

关键词： clmate change   agriculture   scientific knowledge   location of production   weather and climate   agriculture   pest population   Science   Climate  

摘要： Climate change will affect agriculture through effects on crops, soils, insects, weeds, diseases, and livestock. As one moves from the narrower scientific questions the problem analysts must deal with is how to accurately communicate the predictive content of their quantitative analyses.