关键词： 重庆   气候   气象灾害   农业  

摘要： 阐述了重庆市农业气候的基本特征，分析了近年来的气候变化，气象灾害特点及其对农业生产的影响和危害，这对于农业趋利避害具有参考价值。

关键词： Agriculture   Climate change   Carbon dioxide   Impact analysis  

摘要： We assert that the simulation of fine-scale crop growth processes and agronomic adaptive management using coarse-scale climate change scenarios lower confidence in regional estimates of agronomic adaptive potential.

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Carbon dioxide   Impact analysis  

摘要： We investigated the effect of two different spatial scales of climate change scenarios on crop yields simulated by the EPIC crop model for corn, soybean, and wheat, in the central Great Plains of the United States. The effect of climate change alone was investigated in Part I. In Part II (Easterling et al., 2001) we considered the effects of CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation in addition to climate change. The scenarios were formed from five years of control and 2 x CO2 runs of a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM) and the same from an Australian coarse resolution general circulation model (GCM), which provided the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional model runs. We also investigated the effect of two different spatial resolutions of soil input parameters to the crop models. We found that for corn and soybean in the eastern part of the study area, significantly different mean yield changes were calculated depending on the scenario used. Changes in simulated dryland wheat yields in the western areas were very similar, regardless of the scale of the scenario. The spatial scale of soils had a strong effect on the spatial variance and pattern of yields across the study area, but less effect on the mean aggregated yields. We investigated what aspects of the differences in the scenarios were most important for explaining the different simulated yield responses. For instance, precipitation changes in June were most important for corn and soybean in the eastern CSIRO grid boxes. We establish the spatial scale of climate change scenarios as an important uncertainty for climate change impacts analysis.

关键词： 农业生产   气候变化   季节变化   抚顺  

摘要： 通过分析抚顺近 4 0a气温、降水、积温、初终霜、大于等于 1 0℃初终日及气象灾害的演变情况 ,得出气候变化的五大主要特点 。

关键词： climate change   integrated model   New Zealand agriculture  

摘要： Internationally and nationally, New Zealand has a growing requirement to assess and report on the possible effects of climate change. In association with this requirement, the science of climate change is rapidly evolving requiring a capacity for rapid reassessment of effects to take account of scientific advances. Consequently, past assessment methods, which have not been computationally efficient, nor easily repeated, are becoming outdated. To address this gap, an integrated assessment model (IAM), the CLIMPACTS system, has been developed for New Zealand. The CLIMPACTS system has been developed to provide flexibility in application, to be easily updated to take account of scientific advances, and capable of providing information in a manner that is relevant to policymakers. In order to be relevant in New Zealand, it has been necessary to account for different scales of assessment, nationally, at specific sites, and regionally. Nationally, the focus is on spatial applications (e.g., changes in areas of suitability), whereas at sites, the focus is on temporal applications (e.g., changes in risk). The regional capacity in the CLIMPACTS system has required an integration of spatial and temporal applications. This paper describes briefly the capability that has been developed at these different scales of assessment, with brief examples for each. The CLIMPACTS system has enhanced New Zealand's capability to examine environmental sensitivities to climate change, as a basis for better informed policy decisions. Importantly, it is an evolving platform that can be readily extended to other sectors and updated, for example, to account for the effects of internationally agreed greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化   中国农业   脆弱性   集成分析   大气环流模型   农业生态   地带法   Ricardian模型  

摘要： 气候变化下农业的脆弱性研究主要探讨农业对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,以及气候变化对农业造成的损害.该文在综述国内外有关脆弱性与适应性研究理论和方法的基础上,集中探讨了全球气候变化下中国农业的脆弱性.首先,根据1958-1997年中国310个气象站的月平均最高气温、最低气温,月平均降水量等气象参数分析了中国气候的背景特征.用3个大气环流模型,即HadCM2,CGCM1和ECHAM4来模拟未来中国气候变化的情景;同时,建立未来气候变化的6种方案.其次,根据3个GCM模型模拟的结果,利用国际应用系统分析研究所(IIASA)发展和改进的农业生态地带模型(AEZ),和根据中国实际情况改进的Ricardian模型分析了气候变化对中国农业生产的影响.最后,根据AEZ和Ricardian模型分析的结果,选用粮食产量和单位面积农用土地纯收入作为分析指标,建立方法对全球气候变化下中国农业的脆弱性进行了集成分析.

关键词： 鞍山市   气候变化   气象灾害   气候分析   统计分析   农业  

摘要： 应用鞍山 1 951～ 1 999年的气温、降水、日照资料进行统计分析 ,归纳出鞍山近 50a气候呈逐渐变暖的趋势 ,特别是 2 0世纪 80年代以来尤为明显 ,而降水则有逐年减少的趋势 ;分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响 。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   平凉地区   气温   降水量  

摘要： 利用统计学方法对 80年代前后平凉地区的气候变化特点进行了研究 ,并分析了气候变化对农业生产所产生的影响 ,为合理利用本地气候资源提供依据。

关键词： 农业气候   气象灾害   农业气象   沈阳地区   时空变化规律  

摘要： 分析了沈阳地区农业气候特点 ,论述了沈阳农业气候资源时空变化规律以及农业气象灾害发生规律 ,进一步揭示了影响沈阳主要农作物产量的气候因素。

关键词： 气象灾害   影响   农业经济   可持续发展   研究  

ISBN: (纸本)7200042021

摘要： 本书较详细地介绍了我国的干旱、洪涝、沙尘暴等各种气象灾害；分析社会普遍关心的气候变暖、厄尔尼诺等气候现象的成因、影响和适应对策等；回答了黄河断流、东北垦荒等与气候有关的影响农业可持续发展的重大环境问题。