关键词： 种植业   结构调整   气候变化   资源利用   浙江   气候资源   农业气候  

摘要： 通过对浙江省种植业结构的调查研究 ,摸清了浙江省种植业结构调整的特点。根据 196 1～2 0 0 0年基本气候资料 ,分析了浙江省农业气候的变化规律。提出了种植结构调整 ,必须顺应气候变化 ,充分利用气候资源。

关键词： 浙江   农业气候   气候变化   特征分析  

摘要： 对 196 1～ 2 0 0 0年基本气候资料进行了分析 ,结果浙江省农业气候具有气温升高、降水增多。

关键词： 淮河流域   气候变化   农业   技术思路  

摘要： 对安徽省淮河流域地区近百年来的温度、降水变化特征、变化趋势进行了分析 ,同时评估了气候变化对该区种植制度、气候生产潜力、农作物产量的影响 ,分析了气候变化与农业气候灾害之间的关系 ,对农业气候灾害损失进行了评估。

关键词： 作物模拟技术   气候变化   农业生产   经验模型   机理模型   光合作用  

摘要： 近20年来,作物模拟技术的高度发展为定量研究气候变化对农业生产的影响开辟了一条新途径.作物模拟模型分为经验模型(又称(统计)回归模型、描述性模型)和机理模型(又称动力学模型、解释性模型).与利用回归分析、相关分析等统计学方法确定合适的指标来描述气候变化与作物产量或其他生育状况关系(如温度与产量的关系)的经验模型不同,机理模型是针对农作物生理生长特性发展起来的,能够动态地模拟作物的生长发育和产量形成过程,较准确地表达作物生长与气候因子变化之间的关系,并可以通过可控因子(施肥、灌溉)来调节作物的生长发育进程,预测特定气候条件下的作物产量,因此被广泛应用于区域气候影响研究和农业气候资源评价中.

关键词： agriculture   climate changes   environmental land-use policy   Greece  

摘要： Climate changes in Greece for the period 1990 to 2030 were estimated with the use of a climatic model (ESCAPE, Univ. of East Anglia, 1992). Four scenarios were constructed, depicting existing or potential measures for the stabilization, reduction or phase-out of greenhouse gases. Estimates were made regarding the potential suitability zones for some crops (grain maize, grass and hot grapes), the actual crop yield in tons per hectare for chosen years, and the change in yield between 1990 and 2030 and in potential irrigation demand. The results, which indicate the potential impact of climate changes on agriculture, are important in developing medium- and long-term environmental (and land use) policy for Greece.

摘要： My dissertation estimates the economic effects of anthropogenic-induced climate change on U.S. agriculture. The dissertation postulates from the outset that farmers optimally adapt to varying environmental conditions. Thus, land prices can be used to measure the highest value use of the land. Using this assumption, this paper attempts to extend previous research on this subject in three ways. The first goal is to estimate the distributional effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture. Even though many researchers agree that the U.S. agricultural sector is likely to experience a shift of regional comparative advantage in response to changing climate, few studies actually quantify the distributional effects of global warming on U.S. agriculture. The main focus of my dissertation, therefore, is not only to estimate the aggregate impacts of climate change on U.S. agriculture, but also to examine how each region of the United Stated may be affected by changing climate. Second, most researchers believe that the pattern of climate change will be uneven across the North American continent, inducing diverse effects across different regions. Instead of assuming uniform changes in climate variables (e.g., temperature and precipitation), therefore, this research takes into account the possibility of variations in climate change across the 48 contiguous United States. Third, the dissertation accounts for the temporal aspects of anthropogenic-induced climate change. Most impact studies in the past were based on arbitrary climate change scenarios or the equilibrium-doubled CO2 General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios in projecting the effects of global warming on US agriculture. In order to capture the time-dependent responses of the climate system and their impacts on US agriculture, however, this project uses transient climate change scenarios that allow an examination of the time-path of climate change in each U.S. county. Applying the Ricardian approach proposed by Mendelso

关键词： GREENHOUSE gas mitigation   AGRICULTURE -- United States  

摘要： The Department of Energy estimated CO sub(2) emissions for the United States to equal 1562 million metric tons of carbon equivalents (MMTCE) in 2000, which is 305 MMTCE more than in 1990. With an estimated average annual emission increase of 1.5% per year, the Kyoto Protocol would require the United States to reduce CO sub(2) by about 524 MMTCE in 2008, 549 MMTCE in 2009, 578 MMTCE in 2010, 608 MMTCE in 2011, and 635 MMTCE in 2012. Agricultural and forestry (AF) activities may mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through (i) direct emission reductions, (ii) terrestrial carbon sink expansions, and (iii) production of replacements for emission-intensive products. Uncertainty and controversy exist about AF's practical mitigation potential, 300 partly because aggregate studies have been lacking. Competitive economic potentials for agricultural and forest GHG emission mitigation strategies in the United States. All strategies were simultaneously examined. Decreasing levels of emission reductions as prices increase reflect competition among strategies.

关键词： Agriculture/economics   Animals   Carbon   Carbon Dioxide   Climate   Conservation of Natural Resources/economics   Costs and Cost Analysis   Crops, Agricultural/economics   Fertilizers   Forestry/economics   Greenhouse Effect   Models, Theoretical   Soil   Trees   United States  

摘要： The Department of Energy estimated CO_2 emissions for the United States toequal 1562 million metric tons of carbon equivalents (MMTCE) in 2000, which is 305 MMTCE more thanin 1990. With an estimated average annual emission increase of 1.5 percent per year, the KyotoProtocol would require the United States to reduce CO_2 by about 524 MMTCE in 2008, 549 MMTCE in2009, 578 MMTCE in 2010, 608 MMTCE in 2011, and 635 MMTCE in 2012. Agricultural and forestry (AF)activities may mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through (i) direct emission reductions, (ii)terrestrial carbon sink expansions, and (iii) production of replacements for emission-intensiveproducts (1). Uncertainty and controversy exist about AF's practical mitigation potential, partlybecause aggregate studies have been lacking (1). The heterogeneity and management interdependenciesin AF make it difficult to assess aggregate economic mitigation potential. Soil properties, climateconditions, and land management history are heterogeneous, and collectively, they result in uniqueGHG emissions mitigation potential for each field. For example, U.S. carbon concentrations inmineral soil surface layers range from less than 1 percent organic carbon for sandy soils in warm,dry climates to more than 4 percent for clay soils in cold, wet climates. Peat soils contain as muchas 50 percent organic carbon. Carbon sequestration potential depends on carbon lost during previouscultivation. Highly degraded soils with low carbon-holding capacity may have greater sequestrationpotential than fairly undisturbed soils with high capacity.

关键词： 气候变化   西北地区   农业发展   温室效应  

摘要： 将我国西北地区气候变化置于全球和全国气候变化的背景下 ,揭示了西北地区近 5 0a来气候变化的主要特征。指出近 2 0a来气候变化的总趋势为变暖变干 ,并向高温干旱化方向发展 ,分析这种气候变化对未来农业生产可能产生的影响以及所应采取的战略对策。

关键词： 重庆   气候   农业气候生产力   降水量   日照  

摘要： 相关分析结果表明，重庆6市各地年（季）平均气温升高，日照时数增多，大部地区主要年（季）降水量减少均可使年（季）农业气候生产力提高，反之年（季）农业气候生产力下降，并给出了各地在40年气候振动范围内不同气候情景和90年代以来的气候变化对年（季）农业气候生产力的影响程度。