关键词： 气候变化   大气环流模型   农业生产   气温   降水  

摘要： 根据 1 958～ 1 997年中国 31 0个气象站的月平均最高、最低气温 ,月平均降水量 ,日照时数等气象参数分析了中国气候的背景特征。用 3个大气环流模型 ,即 Had CM2、 CGCM1、ECHAM4来模拟未来中国气候变化的情景。同时 ,建立未来气候变化的 6种方案。最后 ,根据3个 GCMs模拟的结果 ,利用国际应用系统分析研究所 (IIASA)发展并改进的农业生态地带模型 (AEZ)评估气候变化对中国农业生产的影响。评估主要集中于气候变化对不同区域复种指数、可耕种土地面积、潜在粮食产量及其土地生产潜力的影响。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生态环境   对策  

摘要： 本文研究分析了"#年来晋城市的气候变化趋势，探讨了气候变化对农作物生长发育和对农业生态环境的影响，提出了相应对策。

关键词： climatic change   soil formation   agricultural soils   soil   agricultural land   assessment   carbon   climate   erodibility   farmers   land management   land use   literature   organic carbon   research   responses   reviews   soil water   soil temperature   soil structure   soil degradation   nutrients   workability   soil organic matter   ecology   minerals   transformation   erodibility   Land use   soil degradation   climate change   Workability   Organic carbon   Farmland   soil genesis   Farmers (2004)   ecology   agricultural soils   soil water   Soil temperature   soil structure   minerals  

摘要： This article reviews the current state of knowledge on the response of soils to climate change, and the implications such changes have for agriculture. The article is based on the material reported in the IPCC second assessment report (Watson et al., 1996) and updated with more recent information, where appropriate. The review highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of soil processes when addressing climate change impacts on agriculture. Rapid soil responses to climate change (e.g. soil water, organic carbon and erodibility) have been widely investigated and reported in the literature. However, it is important that longer-term processes (e.g. pedogenesis) are not ignored by the research community because these have potentially important implications for long-term agricultural land use and are often irreversible. The use of good land management practices, as currently understood, provides the best strategy for adaptation to the impact of climate change on soils. However, it appears likely that farmers will need to carefully reconsider their management options, and land use change is likely to result from different crop selections that are more appropriate to the changing conditions. Perhaps the greatest impact of climate change on soils will arise from climate-induced changes in land use and management.

摘要： The construction and translation of 'global warming' in relation to agriculture is discussed. Scientific construction of global warming as an issue is examined in relation to farmers' understanding of scientific discourse and their translation of that understanding through lay knowledge of their own locally specific experiences and contexts. The author demonstrates that scientific researchers construct environmental issues such as global warming in ways which effectively, if unintentionally, marginalise alternative knowledge forms and configure farmers in relation to scientific knowledge forms. Attempts are made to 'translate' scientific understanding into farmers' knowledge systems through media constructed for consumption by farmers. However, farmers negotiate between scientific knowledge and situated experiential knowledges, and they also differentiate between 'distant' and 'local' forms of scientific knowledge.

关键词： adaptation   model yields   micro-climate   potato   barley  

摘要： An analysis of climate change impacts on the level of agricultural production is presented based on long-term experimental data on yields of crops grown in different soils and climatic zones. Mathematical models combining available data on the biology of agricultural crops and their response to climatic conditions have been used. The principle of maximum plant productivity is the basis of this modelling effort. The potential and meteorologically possible yields under existing environmental conditions were calculated using the potato dynamic model POMOD. The analyses were completed under different climate change scenarios. According to the climate change scenarios HADCM2 and ECHAM3TR, mean potato yields will increase by about 6 to 8%. The yield increase is larger (10 to 16%) on coastal islands and in North Estonia. A new approach and classification of micro-climate geo-complexes was developed. Agricultural production was found to be highly sensitive to micro-climatic variations. The proposed approach permits more objective use of meteorological data in changing climatic conditions. Shifts in agroclimate were established using this modelling approach. The sums of degree-days, particularly above 0 and 5 degreesC, have significantly risen during the period 1807-1995. The development of potato varieties adapted to a changing climate is possible. A strategy for adaptation of agriculture to climate change is presented.

关键词： 气候变化   农业影响   量化研究  

摘要： 通过安徽各测站年平均气温和０℃、１０℃活动积温与地理因子（纬度、径度、海拔高度） 之间的相关关系以及积温和无霜期与年平均气温之间的函数关系， 得到未来气候变暖， 气温每升高１℃， 年平均温度等值线将北移１７６°Ｎ， 东移２７８～４９２°Ｅ， 向高处升２０９６ｍ ； 种植制度分界线将北移２４４°Ｎ， 东移２７８～４９２°Ｅ， 高度升高２３５５ ｍ 。计算并给出了安徽各区域全年、４～９月和１０至次年５月三个时段在气温升高１℃和２℃时农田可能蒸散量的变化。首次将土壤氮、磷、钾含量引入评估ＣＯ２浓度倍增对作物生产力的影响之中， 并讨论了气候变暖和降水变化±２０％ 时对作物生产力的影响。

关键词： Climate change   Climate change adaptation   Carbon dioxide   Climate models   Crop economics   Climate change policy   World Bank   Agriculture  

摘要： Comments on implications of climate change on agriculture in developing countries. Importance of economic adaptation in the reduction of effects of climate change; Relationship between climate and agricultural production; Remarks on the use of Ricardian method; Estimates on the impact of climate change.

关键词： Climate change adaptation   Agroecology   Global warming   Climate models   Seasons   Developing countries   Crop economics  

摘要： Because most developing countries depend heavily on agriculture, the effects of global warming on productive croplands are likely to threaten both the welfare of the population and the economic development of the countries. Tropical regions in the developing world are particularly vulnerable to potential damage from environmental changes because the poor soils that cover large areas of these regions already have made much of the land unusable for agriculture. Although agronomic simulation models predict that higher temperatures will reduce grain yields as the cool wheat-growing areas get warmer they have not examined the possibility that farmers will adapt by making production decisions that are in their own best interests. A recent set of models examines cross-sectional evidence from India and Brazil and finds that even though the agricultural sector is sensitive to climate, individual farmers no take local climates into account, and their ability to do so will help mitigate the impacts of global warming.

关键词： 气候变化   长江三角洲   农业耗水   气候影响  

摘要： 采用Penman-Montieth法计算参考作物潜在蒸散，结合长江三角洲地区的农业生产状况，建立了本地区农业耗水的物理模型，与实测资料相比，该模型具有较高的精度，能够反映农业用水的实际情况。考虑未来三十种不同的气候倩景及未来城市化发展速度，结果表明，未来气温升高，农业耗水量增加，但考虑耕地面积减少，未来的农业耗水量较目前有明显减少。

关键词： 长江下游   农业生产   气候变化   气候变率   GCMs   CERES-Rice   CERES-Wheat   WGEN  

摘要： 该文利用长江下游江苏部分的五个有代表性样点近30多年的逐日气象资料,分析了历史气候变化及其对农业生产的影响.采用GISS、GFDL和UKMO三种大气环流模型(GCMs)在研究区域在CO<,2>倍增时的3种气候变化情景.根据当地作物试验资料,及该地同期的气象资料和土壤资料对CERES-Rice和CERES-Wheat作物模型在研究区域的适用性进行了可靠性验证,并就气候要素的改变对模型进行了敏感性分析,结果表明,CERES-Wheat在研究区域不太适用,进而用经验统计式对它进行了订正.在此基础上,又将CERES-Rice和CERES-Wheat与3种GCMs派生的CO<,2>倍增气候情景相耦合,分析气候变化及CO<,2>浓度对研究区域的水稻和冬小麦的生育期、产量、蒸散量和灌溉需要量等的影响.最后,在假设气候均值不变的条件下,利用随机天气发生器WGEN生成了气候变率的变化情景,并就气候变率对水稻和冬小麦产量的影响进行了敏感性分析.