关键词： 渭南市   气候变化   农业   影响   发展趋势  

摘要： 系统分析了近十年与前四十年渭南市平均气温、极端气温、年平均降水量、年平均日照时数等要素变化规律 ,探讨了气候变化对农业的影响 。

关键词： 气候变化   脆弱性   农业生产   黄土高原  

摘要： 根据 IPCC定义和实地考察、文献、问卷调查等结果确定了评价黄土高原地区农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性判别指标体系及其权重分配结果 ,并对几个代表站点做了脆弱性现状评估 ,为进一步完成黄土高原地区农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性地区分布和对策研究提供了一定的基础和方法。

关键词： land-use   forest sector   economics  

摘要： A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change scenarios on the US forest and agricultural sectors, including impacts on forest carbon inventories. Four scenarios of the biological response of forests to climate change (reflected by changes in forest growth rates) are drawn from a national assessment of climate change and are based on combinations of global circulation and ecological process models. These scenarios are simulated in the forest and agricultural sector model and results are summarized to characterize broad impacts of climate change on the sectors. We find that less cropland is projected to be converted to forests, forest inventories generally increase, and that aggregate economic impacts (across all consumers and producers in the sector) are relatively small. Producers' income is most at risk, and impacts of global climate change on the two sectors vary over the 100-year projection period. The forest sector is found to have adjustment mechanisms that mitigate climate change impacts, including interregional migration of production, substitution in consumption, and altered stand management.

关键词： CLIMATIC changes   AGRICULTURE   PEANUTS   COWPEA  

摘要： During the last 30 years, the climate of the West African Sahel has undergone various changes, especially in terms of rainfall. This has large consequences for the poor-resource farmers depending mainly on rainfed agriculture. This paper investigates the impacts of current climate variability and future climate change on groundnut and cowpea production in Niger for three major agricultural regions, including the groundnut basin. Niger was one of the largest West African groundnut producing and exporting countries. Groundnut production-as a cash crop-dropped from about 312,000 tons in the mid 1960s (about 68% exported) to as low as 13,000 tons in 1988 and increased again to 110,000 tons in 2000. Cowpea, a food crop, shows a different tendency, going from 4, 000 tons in the mid fifties to a maximum of 775,000 tons in 1997, and its cultivated area is still increasing. It is also a cash crop in local economies (especially for women). To highlight the impact of climate change on groundnut and cowpea production (significantly determined by rainfall in July, August and September), the following components of the rainfall regime were calculated for the period 1951-1998: mean annual and monthly rainfall, beginning, end and length of the rainy season, number of rainy days per month, amount of rainfall per rainy day and the maximum length of dry spell per month. Three sub-periods whose duration varied per region were defined: for Dosso 1951-1968, 1969-1984 and 1985-1998;for Maradi 1951-1970, 1971-1987 and 1988-1998;and for Zinder 1951-1966, 1967-1984 and 1985-1998. A change in rainfall regime components was observed between the three sub-periods, which were characterized in chronological order by wet, dry and intermediate conditions. To assess the impact of climate variability and change on groundnut and cowpea production, a statistical modeling approach has been followed, based on thirteen predictors as described and discussed in the preceding paper. Climate change is mimicke

关键词： agriculture   Millet   Countries (nations)   climate change   agricultural production   Case studies   Sahel   AFRICAN, WEST   Rainfall   rain   Niger  

摘要： In the last 30 years the climate of the West African Sahel has shown various changes, especially in terms of rainfall, of which inter-annual variability is very high. This has significant consequences for the poor-resource farmers, whose incomes depend mainly on rainfed agriculture. The West African Sahel is already known as an area characterized by important interaction between climate variability and key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture and water resources. More than 80% of the 55 million population of West African Sahel is rural, involved in agriculture and stock-farming, the two sectors contributing almost 35% of the countries' GDPs. It is therefore obvious that climate change seriously affects the economies of these countries. Adding to this situation the high rate of population increase (similar to3%), leading to progressive pressure upon ecosystems, and poor sanitary facilities, one comes to the conclusion that Sahelian countries, Niger amongst them, will be highly vulnerable to climate change. This paper investigates the impact of current climate variability and future climate change on millet production for three major millet-producing regions in Niger. Statistical models have been used to predict the effects of climate change on future production on the basis of thirteen available predictors. Based on the analysis of the past 30-years of rainfall and production data, the most significant predictors of the model are (i) sea surface temperature anomalies, (ii) the amount of rainfall in July, August and September, (iii) the number of rainy days and (iv) the wind erosion factor. In 2025, production of millet is estimated to be about 13% lower as a consequence of climate change, translated into a reduction of the total amount of rainfall for July, August and September, combined with an increase in temperature while maintaining other significant predictors at a constant level. Subsequently, various potential strategies to compensate this loss are evalu

关键词： 中英联合项目   气候变化   中国   农业   潜在影响   评估项目  

摘要： 2001年,由英国环境、粮食和农村事务部(简称英国环境部)和中华人民共和国科学技术部(简称中国科技部)共同商议,在与气候变化有关的科学和技术问题方面进行双边合作。2001年7月6日中英双方共同开展的气候变化对中国农业潜在影响评估项目的签字仪式在京举行。英国副首相克里斯托克和中国科技部徐冠华部长出席了签字仪式。

关键词： global warming   agriculture   economic impact   adaptation  

摘要： This paper intends to estimate the potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agricultural sector. Yield response regression models are used to investigate the climate change's impact on 60 crops. A price-endogenous mathematical programming model is then used to simulate the welfare impacts of yield changes under various climate change scenarios. Results suggest that both warming and climate variations have a significant but non-monotonic impact on crop yields. Society as a whole would not suffer from warming, but a precipitation increase may be devastating to farmers. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   脆弱性   黄土高原   二氧化碳   温室气体  

摘要： 在总结脆弱性的定义与介绍相关研究方法的基础上 ,提出了农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性的初步定义、研究思路、指标体系及计算方法 。

关键词： adaptation   DSSAT   GCMs   soybean   vulnerability   wheat  

摘要： \The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to various soils in northeastern Austria under a changing climate were investigated. The CERES crop model for winter wheat and the CROPGRO model for soybean were validated for the agrometeorological conditions in the selected region. The simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with the measured data. Several incremental and transient global circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios were created and used in the study. In these scenarios, annual temperatures in the selected region are expected to rise between 0.9 and 4.8degreesC from the 2020s to the 2080s. The results show that warming will decrease the crop-growing duration of the selected crops. For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a yield decrease. Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield. A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity. All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, including the adjustment for only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield. However, when the direct effect of increased levels Of CO2 concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region. The increase in simulated soybean yield for the 21st century was primarily because of the positive impact of warming and especially of the beneficial influence of the direct CO2 effect. Changes in climate variability were found to affect winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways. Results from the adaptation assessments suggest that changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century.

关键词： evapotranspiration   frost dates   rainfall   soil water content   temperature  

摘要： To determine the risk of climate change for agriculture it is necessary to define a set of agrometeorological parameters, derived from the classic climate parameters, that are capable of indicating the consequences of climate change for crop production. In this study high-quality daily rainfall, evaporation and mean, minimum and maximum temperature data collected since 1878 at the meteorological station of the Department of Agronomy and Agroecosystem Management of the University of Pisa, Italy (H = 6 in a.s.l.;latitude = 43degrees41';longitude = 10degrees23'E) were used to calculate extreme temperature and rainfall events, frost risk, flooding risk and drought risk. Time trends for all variables were analysed using linear regression techniques. Results indicate that the changes in extreme events in Pisa have not changed in a way that is likely to negatively affect crop production. The risk of crop damage due to frost has decreased and sowing time in spring can safely be anticipated. The soil moisture surplus (SMS) and theoretical irrigation requirement (TIR) have not changed despite a decreasing rainfall trend. The number of soil moisture surplus days in autumn has decreased indicating a decrease in flooding risk, which can have a positive effect on soil workability. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.