关键词： 气候变化   农业气候资源   作物生产  

摘要： 通过对福建东西南北几个代表点 1 981～ 1 990年、 1 991～ 1 999年、 1 981～ 1 999年光温水气候资源特征值与 1 951～ 1 980年平均值的对比分析 ,结果表明 :80年代以后各季平均气温除闽北变化不明显外 ,其它三地区秋冬变暖明显 ,春冷夏热 ,各地平均年平均气温升高 0 .4℃。 1 2～ 1 5℃、 1 0～ 2 3℃ ( 2 0℃ )活动积温闽南增加 ,闽北减少 ;各地各时段日照时数平均减少 1 0 %～ 1 5% ;各地春雨季降水量增加、梅雨季降水量减少 ,年、生长季降水量闽南略增 ,闽北减少 ;闽北、闽东“三寒”发生次数均有不同程度的增加。并简要地讨论了气候变化对我省水稻、冬种、果树等作物生产的影响 。

关键词： 明代   华南地区   农业经济   气候环境   生态环境  

摘要： 在明代２７６年间，华南气候经过多次振动发 生了由暖到寒的转变。这一转变对当时华南地区的农业产生 过较大的影响：一方面，由于气候振动，气象灾害时常发生，伤 害了劳动力资源，破坏了耕地和其它农业设施，扰乱了农业生 产的秩序。另一方面，由于气候由暖转寒，影响了农作物的组 合，使粮食作物和经济作物的地理分布有了改变。此外，气候 转寒以后，砍伐森林、破坏植被、滥杀动物的情况不断发生，也 在一定的程度上破坏了农业的生态环境。从某种意义上说，气 候变化是制约明代华南农业发展的一个重要因素。

关键词： agriculture   bioenergy crops   carbon mitigation   carbon sequestration   climate change   Europe   Kyoto Protocol Article 3.4   land management   soil organic carbon   soil organic matter  

摘要： Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO2 emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008-2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land-use/land-management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land-use/land-management. We show that no single land-management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land-management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land-management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long-term land-use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the infrastructure for bioenergy production needs

关键词： climate change   agriculture   Mid-Atlantic   environment   adaptation  

摘要： Agriculture in the Mid-Atlantic Region, like agriculture worldwide, has an intrinsic relationship with climate. This article considers how climate change might affect future Mid-Atlantic agriculture. Our assessment differs from prior work in 2 important ways. First, prior assessments have for the most part examined the impacts of future climate change on present-day agriculture. neglecting the fact that agriculture is likely to change dramatically in the coming century independent of climate change. Second, previous assessments have focused almost exclusively on the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. Societal interest in agriculture, however, is much broader than production because agriculture is a source of both rural amenities and negative environmental impacts. Our assessment suggests that Mid-Atlantic crop and livestock production will probably not change significantly in either direction. There might be changes in the environmental impacts of agricultural production and land use, but we currently lack evidence on the magnitudes and even directions of these changes. Given that agriculture currently has significant negative impacts on water quality in many areas, including the Chesapeake Bay, this should be a high priority for research. In addition, research is needed to understand climate impacts on agriculture's contributions to wildlife habitat, rural landscape amenities and carbon sequestration.

关键词： Agriculture  

摘要： The assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture has emerged as a recognizable field of research over the past 15 years or so. In a relatively short period, this area of work has undergone a number of important conceptual and methodological developments. Among many questions that have been debated are the adaptability of agriculture to climate change and the importance of land management adjustments in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. In turn, this latter focus has spawned a discussion regarding the nature of adaptation and the ability of agriculture to respond to sudden and rapid climatic changes. In this paper we present an overview of this debate. It is argued that the first generation of climate change impact studies generally ignored the possibility that agriculturalists may adjust their farming practices in order to cope with climate change or to take advantage of new production opportunities. This conceptual oversight has been largely eliminated over the past five years or so. However, questions remain surrounding the likelihood that various adaptive strategies will actually be deployed in particular places. In this paper, we stress the importance of studying adaptation in the context of decision-making at the individual farm level and beyond.

关键词： 全球变化   中国   农业   产量   可持续性  

摘要： 气候变化的区域影响愈益成为具有挑战性的问题，尤其是气候变化对农业产量可持续性的影响已引起广泛的关注。基于全球气候变化对中国的影响和区域气候变率分析，提出了粮食气候产量形成模型，并将其应用于黄淮海地区冬小麦水分条件和产量研究，同时对全球气候变化情形下冬小麦产量的变化做出评价。

关键词： adaptation scenarios   climate change   agriculture   Poland  

摘要： This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.

关键词： climatic change   land management   organic carbon   soil   carbon dioxide   emission   UK  

摘要： Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to an 8% reduction in CO2 emissions, compared to baseline (1990) levels, during the first commitment period (2008-2012). However, within the overall EU agreement, the UK is committed to a 12.5% reduction. In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies (Kyoto Article 3.4) and examine the consequences of UK and European policy options on the potential for carbon mitigation. We show that integrated agricultural land management strategies have considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Our figures suggest the following potentials (Tg yr(-1)) for each scenario: animal manure, 3.7;sewage sludge, 0.3;cereal straw incorporation, 1.9;no-till farming, 3.5;agricultural extensification, 3.3;natural woodland regeneration, 3.2 and bioenergy crop production, 4.1. A realistic land-use scenario combining a number of these individual management options has a mitigation potential of 10.4 Tg C yr(-1) (equivalent to about 6.6% of 1990 UK CO2-carbon emissions). An important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land, but in order to fully exploit it, policies governing the use of surplus arable land would need to be changed. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the potential is infinite. The UK will not attempt to meet its climate change commitments solely through changes in agricultural land-use, but since all sources of carbon mitigation will be important in meeting these commitments, agricultural options should be taken very seriously.

关键词： nitrous oxide emissions   inventory   agriculture   Belgium   Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  

摘要： In this study an inventory of N(2)O emissions from agriculture in Belgium was made according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. Three sources of N(2)O were distinguished between: (1) direct N(2)O emissions from agricultural soils (N(2)O-direct), (2) N(2)O emissions due to animal production systems (N(2)O-animals), and (3) indirect N(2)O emissions as a result of N losses from agricultural soils (N(2)O-indirect). In 1996, the total N(2)O emission from agriculture in Belgium was 12.8 x 10(6) kg N(2)O-N. N(2)O-direct, N(2)O-animals and N(2)O-indirect contributed 60%, 7% and 33%, respectively, to the total N(2)O emission. The IPCC methodology tended to give an overestimate of the N(2)O emission from agriculture by 45% when IPCC default values were used instead of country-specific N-input data. Between 1950 and 1996, the total N(2)O emission from agriculture in Belgium increased from 8.4 x 10(6) kg N(2)O-N to 12.8 x 10(6) kg N(2)O-N. This was an increase of 53%, or about 0.1x10(6) kg N(2)O-N-year(-1).

关键词： 气候变化   农业影响   气候变暖   研究综述   农业气象灾害   气候生产潜力   未来气候变化   作物生产潜力   温室效应   种植制度  

摘要： 自 198 5年奥地利“温室气体对气候变化及有关影响”的国际论证会议上提出全球变暖问题以来〔1〕,气候变暖问题已经引起世界范围科学家、政府及公众的高度关注。 19世纪 80年代到 2 0世纪 80年代的 10 0年中 ,全球年平均近地气温上升 0 5℃ ,北半球大陆上升 1℃以上〔2〕。进入 90年代后的 1990年、1995年、1997年、1998年全球平均温度数创历史最高纪录 ,1998年成为有观测记录以来全球最暖的一年〔3〕。最近的研究表明 ,2 0世纪 90年代和 2 0世纪分别是近千年来最暖的 10年和世纪〔4〕。温室效应是全球气候变暖的主要原因 ,这已是一个不争的事实。人类向大气