关键词： 气候变化 持续农业 云南省 气象产量 适应对策  

摘要： 本文从持续农业的内涵出发，从气候变化的角度讨论了影响农业持续发展的因素， 用定量和定性相结合的方法来分析气候变化对云南持续农业的影响。 以气温和降水作为定量指标，重点分析了气候变化对粮食产量持续供给的影响。在 对云南省1951～1995年的气温和降水资料进行统计分析处理的基础上，选用气温倾向率、 气温标准差、降水倾向率、降水标准差、降水异常指数几个指标，用5年滑动平均法， 系统地总结了云南省45年来的气候变化的特点和规律。并利用滑动平均外推预测法，预 测了云南未来5～9年的气候变化趋势。借助EXCEL、SPSS中的回归分析及数值模拟方 法，总结了过去45年来云南粮食产量的波动趋势。选用Lieth方法计算气象产量Pv值， 求出当气温和降水在不同组合的情形下，对Pv值产生的影响。 研究表明，45年来，云南全省域平均气温呈微弱上升趋势，幅度不大，夏季气温 特点是“前低后高”，冬季气温特点是“两头高中间低”，呈微弱的上升;年平均降水量 呈微弱上升趋势，夏季降水量特点是“少－多－少”，总体呈下降趋势，冬季降水特点是“三 峰三谷”，波动大，总体呈上升趋势，上升幅度小。1995年后的5～9年内，云南省年均 温有升高的趋势，都在多年平均温以上;年均降水量也有增加的趋势，前3年，年均降 水量增加，进入多雨期，第二个3年，年均降水量减少，但幅度小，后3年，降水量又 增加，幅度大;降水量变化有2～3年的波动周期，上下呈微弱的波动。未来的2001～2004 年内，云南年均气温呈上升趋势，升温幅度大，为正常偏高，年均降水量也有增加的趋 势，进入多雨期，为正常偏多。 对45年来云南省的气候变化和粮食产量变化的研究表明：45年来，粮食产量的年 际波动较大，主要同气候条件特别是降水因子相关，粮食产量波动值Yc与气象产量Pv 值的波动趋势有极大的拟合性。未来当气温和降水量发生变化时，气温和降水都增加的 “暖湿型”气候对粮食产量增产有利，平均增长幅度达6.2％，而气温和降水都减少的“冷 干型”气候最不利于农业生产，平均减少幅度为6.9％。 气候变化对云南持续农业影响的韧步研究——中文摘要 阐述了气候变化与持续农业的关系，针对云南的具体情况定性地描述气候变化对农 业可持续发展的影响。重点分析了制约云南农业增产的干旱、洪涝、低温霜冻、病虫害 等自然灾害，当气候变暖时，尽管降水量会有微弱的增加，由于蒸散率增加，干旱可能 会加剧，部分地区也会出现洪涝灾害;低温霜冻受灾程度得以减轻：热带病虫害增多， 分布范围加大。论文分析表明，气候变化将使云南农业生产的不稳定性加剧，使自然资 源进一步紧缺，引起云南农业生产布局和结构的变动，改变水资源和土地资源的利用方 式，使农业生产成本和投入增加。针对存在的问题，从气候变化、农业、可持续发展3 个方面提出了适应对策。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气候生产力   重庆市  

摘要： 相关分析结果表明 ,重庆市各地年(季 )平均气温升高、日照时数增多、大部地区主要年 (季 )降水量减少均可使年(季 )农业气候生产力提高 ,反之年 (季 )农业气候生产力下降 ,并给出了各地在 40年气候振动范围内不同气候情景和 90年代以来的气候变化对年 (季 )农业气候生产力的影响程度

关键词： 农业气候   气候变化   气象灾害   农业影响  

摘要： 阐述了重庆市农业气候的基本特征 ,分析了近年来的气候变化、气象灾害特点及其对农业生产的影响和危害 ,这对于农业趋利避害具有参考价值

关键词： carbon sequestration   conservation buffer strips   Conservation Reserve Program   conservation tillage   policy   soil carbon   United States  

摘要： Increase in the use of conservation practices by agriculture in the United States will enhance soil organic carbon and potentially increase carbon sequestration. This, in turn, will decrease the net emission of carbon dioxide. A number of studies exist that calibrate the contribution of various individual, site-specific conservation practices on changes in soil organic carbon. There is a general absence, however, of a comprehensive effort to measure objectively the contribution of these practices including conservation tillage, the Conservation Reserve Program, and conservation buffer strips to change in soil organic carbon. This paper fills that void. After recounting the evolution of the use of the various conservation practices, it is estimated that organic carbon in the soil in 1998 in the United States attributable to these practices was about 12.2 million metric tons. By 2008, there will be an increase of about 25 percent. Given that there is a significant potential for conservation practices to lead to an increase in carbon sequestration, there are a number of policy options that can be pursued. (C) 2001 by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： 土壤   全球气候变化   农业生产   二氧化碳   气温  

摘要： 本文讨论土壤、农业与全球气候变化的相互关系及相互影响 ,包括土壤圈、农业生产活动对全球气候变化的影响 ,以及全球气候变化对农业产生的直接和间接影响。并对引起CO2浓度上升、气温增高和水文条件改变等对世界农业和中国农业的正、负面效应进行预测。

关键词： conservation   global climate change   organic carbon   US agriculture  

摘要： Increase in the use of conservation practices by agriculture in the United States will enhance soil organic carbon and potentially increase carbon sequestration. This, in turn, will decrease the net emission of carbon dioxide. A number of studies exist that calibrate the contribution of various individual, site-specific conservation practices on changes in soil organic carbon. There is a general absence, however, of a comprehensive effort to measure objectively the contribution of these practices including conservation tillage, the Conservation Reserve Program, and conservation buffer strips to an change in soil organic carbon. This paper fills that void. After recounting the evolution of the use of the various conservation practices, it is estimated that organic carbon in the soil in 1998 in the United States attributable to these practices was about 12.2 million metric tons. By 2008, there will be an increase of about 25%. Given that there is a significant potential for conservation practices, which could lead to an increase in carbon sequestration, there are a number of policy options that can be pursued. These include education and technical assistance, financial assistance, research and development, land retirement, and regulation and taxes.

关键词： Soil organic-matter   Conventional-tillage   Filter strips   United-states   Carbon   Rotation   Productivity   Hapludult   Programs   Nitrogen   United States   Carbon Sequestration   soil organic carbon   agriculture   climate change   filter strips   carbon dioxide emission   hapludults   soil organic matter   productivity   conventional tillage  

摘要： The use of conservation practices by agriculture in the United States will enhance soil organic carbon and potentially increase carbon sequestration. This, in turn, will decrease the net emission of carbon dioxide. A number of studies exist that calibrate the contribution of various individual, site-specific conservation practices on changes in soil organic carbon. There is a general absence, however. of a comprehensive effort to measure objectively the contribution of these practices including conservation tillage, the Conservation Reserve Program, and conservation buffer strips to an change in soil organic carbon. This paper fills that void. After recounting the evolution of the use of the various conservation practices, it is estimated that organic carbon in the soil in 1998 in the United States attributable to these practices was about 12.2 million Mt. By 2008, there will be an increase of about 25%. Given that there is a significant potential for conservation practices to lead to an increase in carbon sequestration, there are a number of policy options that can be pursued. These include education and technical assistance, financial assistance, research and development, land retirement, and regulation and taxes. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   对策  

摘要： 对聊城市 42年来的气候资料进行分析 ,找出主要农业气候学因子的变化规律和特征 ,论证了气候变化对聊城市农业生产的影响。

关键词： Kiwifruit cv hayward. Carbon-dioxide.  

摘要： The determination of `critical thresholds' is an essential task for informed policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas emission targets. This paper presents a framework for determining critical thresholds for New Zealand agriculture, focusing on three agricultural crops - kiwifruit, grain maize, and Paspalum dilatatum - as exemplars for the fruit production, arable cropping and dairy production industries in New Zealand. The approach is based on the application of a country-scale, integrated assessment model, called CLIMPACTS. The CLIMPACTS system contains a climate change scenario generator, climate and land data, and sectoral impact models. Importantly, CLIMPACTS allows time-dependent assessments of climate change and its effects, which facilitates the identification and examination of thresholds, which largely relate to spatial changes, over time, in regions of economic importance for these crops. However, whether such thresholds are `critical' for New Zealand cannot currently be addressed by the CLIMPACTS model. The determination of `criticality' requires a fully integrated assessment in which the social, economic, and environmental costs and risks associated with these thresholds are comprehensively evaluated.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   开发利用   奉贤地区  

摘要： 根据奉贤 1959～ 1999年的降水、气温、日照资料 ,对奉贤 4 0多年的气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明 :4 0多年来奉贤地区年平均气温呈上升趋势 ,特别是进入 2 0世纪 90年代以来增温尤为显著 ,冬季变暖趋势 (为 +0 .4 8℃ /10年 )明显大于春、秋两季 ,夏季气温呈略下降趋势 ;年降水量呈上升趋势 (+6 5.7mm/10年 ) ,月际降水变化幅度加大。夏季降水量增多尤为明显(+91.7mm/10年 ) ,春季、冬季降水量呈波动状态 ,秋季降水量呈下降趋势 (- 38.1mm/10年 ) ;年日照时数依次分为上升期 (6 0年代中后期以前 ) ,下降期 (6 0年代末～ 80年代初 )和在平均值(194 4 .3h)上下振动期 (80年代中期以后 )三个阶段。此外 。