ISBN: (纸本)7030125045

关键词： 气候变化   农业   农业灾害  

摘要： 分析了近50年来河南气候变化的基本特点及气候变化对农业旱涝灾害发生频次、强度的影响,并根据气候变化和河南农业现状提出了河南农业发展的对策。

关键词： adaptation   adaptive capacity   climate change   policy   sustainable agriculture  

摘要： Agricultural activity has always included,adaptation to a number of diverse stresses and opportunities-elements that continue influencing developments in the agri-food sector. Climate and weather conditions are a good example of factors that require on-going adaptation. With climate change they take on even more significance. Based oil data from Canadian producers, this article identifies several climate and weather risk adaptation strategies currently in use and notes their close links to sustainable agriculture practices. The article concludes that the mutually supportive relationship between sustainable agriculture and climate change adaptation could be used to justify more government support for sustainable agriculture policies and programs.

关键词： Euro-Atlantic climate variability   wheat yield   Europe   NAO  

摘要： European agricultural production is influenced by the space-time distribution of regional climate. Because regional distributions of temperature and precipitation in Europe are affected by changes in the wintertime atmospheric circulation, this paper aims at identifying the relationships between the wintertime Euro-Atlantic variability and wheat yield for the Member States of the European Union, An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of the 500 hPa geopotential height fields is used to describe the wintertime climate variability, associating the leading 4 components of the EOF decomposition into known climatic patterns (such as North Atlantic Oscillation or Eastern Atlantic patterns). Using statistical methods such as ANOVA, linear regression and 'leave-one-out' cross -validation, those patterns are related to time series of wheat yield anomalies. It is shown that, depending on the country, there is a link between wheat yield and modes of winter climate variability, and this link differs from the relationship between temperature and precipitation with the modes. Looking ahead to the improvement of seasonal climate forecasts, it is expected that such meteorological patterns may be predicted with some accuracy, which in turn could improve crop yield forecasts.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   水资源   气候特点  

摘要： 林口县位于黑龙江省的东南部,129°17’～30°45’E,44°46’～45°58’N。在张广才岭、老爷岭、达山余脉之间的“低山丘陵”。气候特点属中温大陆性季风气候,冬季寒冷少雪、春季少雨干、夏季降水分段集中、秋季凉爽,初霜偏早。由于复杂的地形影响,各乡镇气候差异较大,多项气要素的分布也很不均匀。但光、热、水三大气候素能满足农作物生长发育的需要。为了更好地发农业生产潜力,充分合理利用气候资源,以科带动农业生产的发展,根据林口县气象局957～2003年气候资料进行初步地计算分析,研了1991～2003年气候变化对农业生产及有关方的影响;根据气候变化具有连续性(或周期性)特点,应采取相应的措施

关键词： Ricardian climate change impacts   vulnerability   spatial econometrics   Great Plains   agriculture  

摘要： The "Ricardian" technique for projecting climate change impacts on agriculture has generated an unusual amount of critical attention. Ricardian climate sensitivities are typically viewed as the necessary and static result of exclusively local economic and biophysical conditions. In this paper, six spatial econometric models are estimated to explore how human-environment relationships associated with climate sensitivities have varied over space and time in the Great Plains, 1969-1992. Results indicate that spatial effects, such as extra-local communication processes and proximity to and regulation of Ogallala irrigation water, are important influences on climate sensitivities. Projected climate change impacts also vary significantly with the scale, location, and time of analysis. Under a hypothetical climate change, at the county scale, land values would decline (by up to one-third) in the western counties, but increase (by up to one-half) in the eastern counties. In some cases, the projected impacts for a given county change algebraic sign or order of magnitude during the study period. At the regional scale, impacts are significantly higher in the early years (a projected increase of about 5 percent of regional land values, similar to$7 billion [1992$]) than in the later years (an increase of about one-half of one percent, similar to$0.7 billion). These results suggest that, suitably modified, the Ricardian framework can be used constructively to explore subtle yet important social dimensions of dynamic climate risk, and that on balance the Great Plains system of agricultural production, despite a heterogeneous picture of projected impacts, appears to be increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

关键词： 气候变化特征   柴达木盆地   日最低气温   月降水资料   代表站   日平均气温   农业气候资源   利用   农业影响   农业生产  

摘要： 利用柴达木盆地6个代表站逐日平均气温、逐月降水资料以及逐日最低气温资料,对盆地40a来的气候变化特征进行分析,同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响,为充分利用变化了的农业气候资源,减少不利因素带来的影响提出了对策和建议。

关键词： BUSINESS   AGRICULTURE   RAIN & rainfall   TEMPERATURE   BUSINESS & weather  

摘要： Agriculture remains sensitive to variation in rainfall and temperature. Fortunately, our ability to predict the lower frequency variation in the earth's atmosphere is increasing rapidly. While information cannot affect the underlying source of variability, it allows unexpected shocks to be anticipated and acted upon. This paper develops and analyzes an intertemporal Ricardian trade model with Bayesian beliefs. Results in this paper show that improved climate prediction reduces expected prices, but increases price variability. In addition, trade is crucial to realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction. The value of climate prediction is highest with both storage and trade, and falls by over 300% when a country is in autarky. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2004.

关键词： agriculture   Northeast   climate change   Ecological Impacts of Climate Change   Geographical data  

摘要： This paper measures the economic impacts of climate change on China's agriculture based on the Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture dominated counties, we find that under most climate change scenarios both higher temperature and more precipitation would have an overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Autumn effect is the most positive, but spring effect is the most negative. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the year 2050 shows that the East, the Central part, the South, the northern part of the Northeast, and the Plateau would benefit from climate change, but the Southwest, the Northwest and the southern part of the Northeast may be negatively affected. In the North, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In summary, all of China would benefit from climate change in most scenarios.

关键词： 气候变化   中国   农业生产   影响因素   发展对策  

摘要： 概述温室效应给全球气候带来的变化,进而分析气候变化对我国农业生产的影响,并提出相应的对策。