关键词： 气候变化   农业发展   对策  

摘要： 论述了气候变化对我区可持续农业的影响及其对策。

关键词： adaptation   agricultural meteorology   agriculture   carbon   climatic change   crop yield   environmental management   fertilizers   forest plantations   forestry   forestry practices   greenhouse gases   meteorological observations   pesticides   plant d iseases   plant pests   prediction   research   rural communities   rural development   simulation models   temporal variation   tropics   water use   weeds   Greenhouse gases   forestry operations   Climate   fertilizers   Forestry   Rural Development   meteorological observations   Rural communities   tropics   agriculture   Simulation models   climate change   forest plantations   Weeds   Environment management  

摘要： The adaptation of agriculture and forestry to the climate of the twenty-first century supposes that research projects will be conducted cooperatively between meteorologists, agronomists, soil scientists, hydrologists, and modellers. To prepare for it, it is appropriate first of all to study the variations in the climate of the past using extensive, homogenised series of meteorological or phenological data. General circulation models constitute the basic tool in order to predict future changes in climate. They will be improved, and the regionalisation techniques used for downscaling climate predictions will also be made more efficient. Crop simulation models using input data from the general circulation models applied at the regional level ought to be the favoured tools to allow the extrapolation of the major trends on yield, consumption of water, fertilisers, pesticides, the environment and rural development. For this, they have to be validated according to the available agronomical data, particularly the available phenological series on cultivated crops. In addition, climate change would have impact on crop diseases and parasites, as well as on weeds. Very few studies have been carried out in this field. It is also necessary to quantify in a more accurate way the stocks and fluxes of carbon in large forest ecosystems, simulate their future, and assess the vulnerability of the various forest species to a change in climate. This is all the more important in that some propagate species choices must be made in the course of the next ten years in plantations which will experience changed climate. More broadly speaking, we shall have not only to try hard to research new agricultural and forestry practices which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions or promote the storage of carbon, but it will also be indispensable to prepare the adaptation of numerous rural communities for the climate change (with special reference to least developed countries in tropical areas, where ma

关键词： Climate change   Agricultural production   Greenhouse gases  

摘要： The potential impact of climate variability and climate change on agricultural production in the United States and Canada varies generally by latitude. Largest reductions are projected in southern crop areas due to increased temperatures and reduced water availability. A longer growing season and projected increases in CO2 may enhance crop yields in northern growing areas. Major factors in these scenarios analyzes are increased drought tendencies and more extreme weather events, both of which are detrimental to agriculture. Increasing competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural users also focuses attention on water management issues. Agriculture also has impact on the greenhouse gas balance. Forests and soils are natural sinks for CO2. Removal of forests and changes in land use, associated with the conversion from rural to urban domains, alters these natural sinks. Agricultural livestock and rice cultivation are leading contributors to methane emission into the atmosphere. The application of fertilizers is also a significant contributor to nitrous oxide emission into the atmosphere. Thus, efficient management strategies in agriculture can play an important role in managing the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. Forest and land management can be effective tools in mitigating the greenhouse effect.

关键词： 气候变化   暖冬多雨水   梅汛期降水  

摘要： 通过对嘉兴市50年来地面观测气象资料及粮食产量资料处理分析,得出:20世纪90年代暖冬多雨水,对春粮生产不利,3-4月雨水多光照少且年际变化大,是春粮产量不稳的重要原因;梅汛期降水增加且集中,对早稻生产形成威胁;9-10月温度适宜,降水较少,光照丰富,对晚稻生产有利。因此,应改变嘉兴农业生产布局、完善熟制改革,以达到充分利用嘉兴农业气候资源优势、增加农业效益的目的。

关键词： 生态系统退化   气候变化   农业   全球变暖   全球环境   水资源短缺   臭氧层耗损   生物多样性   可持续发展  

摘要： 近百年来,以全球变暖为主要特征,全球的气候与环境发生了重大变化:水资源短缺,生态系统退化,土壤侵蚀加剧,生物多样性锐减,臭氧层耗损,大气化学成分改变,等等.由于全球变化的幅度已经超出了地球本身自然变动的范围,对人类的生存和社会经济的发展构成了严重威胁.目前,气候变化问题已成为全球环境与实现可持续发展的主要问题之一,引起了世界各国政府和公众的广泛关注.

关键词： 最低气温   最高气温   负积温   月平均气温   气候变化   降水量   中国西北地区   冬作   越冬   农业生产  

摘要： 选取西北地区171个地面测站1961～2003年历年月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、降水量,≥0℃、≥10℃积温和<0℃负积温等指标,分析近43年气候变化特征。月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、≥0℃、≥10℃积温,1987～2003年比1961～1986年的平均值明显增高(多),尤以最低气温增幅最大,冬季升温幅度大于夏季,西北地区气候变暖主要来自于最低气温的贡献;<0℃负积温明显减少;降水量西部增多、东部减少,分界线与黄河走向基本一致。西北地区西部呈暖湿变化趋势,东部呈暖干变化趋势,喜温作物面积扩大,越冬作物种植区北界向北扩展。

关键词： 气候变化   农业   重要组成部分   社会经济系统   自然生态系统   自然环境   生存  

摘要： 气候作为人类赖以生存的自然环境的一个重要组成部分，它的任何变化都会对自然生态系统以及社会经济系统产生影响。

关键词： 河北   气候   农业   可持续发展   广宗县   种植方法   温度  

摘要： 本文通过对河北省黑龙港流域的广宗县30a来逐年温度、降水、日照的变化分析,找出了其气候变化特点。提出了充分利用气候资源,调整农业种植结构,发展节水农业、改良土壤等对策,以达到农业可持续发展。

关键词： 农业   气候变化   敏感性   脆弱性  

摘要： 气候脆弱性问题是气候变化影响研究的重要内容,农业的气候变化脆弱性是国内外关注和研究的关键性问题。本文综述了脆弱性和农业对气候变化脆弱性的概念以及研究进展,并探讨了今后农业脆弱性研究的重点和难点问题。

关键词： 粮食产量   农业   山东   粮食单产   自然灾害   趋势   影响   变暖   气候变化   气候背景  

摘要： 根据山东省 196 1～ 2 0 0 0年气象与粮食产量资料 ,利用统计分析方法 ,分析了气候变化、农业自然灾害对粮食产量的影响。研究表明 :① 2 0世纪 6 0年代以来 ,山东省气候有变暖和变干的趋势 ,各季节中 ,变暖趋势最明显的是冬季 ,变干表现最突出的是夏季 ;②气温和降水是造成山东省粮食产量波动的主要原因 ,在“暖干”气候背景下 ,气温与气候产量为负相关 ,降水量与气候产量呈较显著的正相关 ;③农业自然灾害是造成粮食单产产生波动的主要原因之一。