关键词： 气候变化   农业   二氧化碳浓度   作物生产力   水分利用  

摘要： 全球气候变化过程加剧。阐述了CO_2浓度升高及气候变化对农业的影响,包括CO_2浓度升高对作物生产力的影响,CO_2浓度与温度升高相互影响以及CO_2浓度与水分利用之间相互影响。研究表明随CO_2浓度的升高,作物生产力如生物量、经济产量以及水分利用效率均将有所提高,但高温对作物生产力可能产生不利影响,并指出今后研究重点。

ISBN: (纸本)750293541X

关键词： 气候变化-气候影响-生态农业-研究-中国  

关键词： 菏泽市   气候变化   农业生产   农业气候资源   农业气象灾害   气候要素   影响  

摘要： 依据菏泽市气象台47年的观测资料,找出了近20年以来气象要素、农业气候资源以及气象灾害较前27年发生的变化,分析了这种变化对农业生产的可能影响,提出了菏泽市未来农业面临的气候问题及建议。

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Water pollution  

摘要： Research on climate change and agriculture has largely focused on production, food prices, and producer incomes. However, societal interest in agriculture is much broader than these issues. The objective of this paper is to analyze the potential impacts of climate change on an important negative externality from agriculture, water quality. We construct a simulation model of maize production in twelve watersheds within the U. S. Chesapeake Bay Region that has economic and watershed components linking climate to productivity, production decisions by maize farmers, and nitrogen loadings delivered to the Chesapeake Bay. Maize is an important crop to study because of its importance to the region's agriculture and because it is a major source of nutrient pollution. The model is run under alternative scenarios regarding the future climate, future baseline (without any climate change), whether farmers respond to climate change, whether there are carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment effects on maize production, and whether agricultural prices facing the region change due to climate change impacts on global agricultural commodity markets. The simulation results differ from one scenario to another on the magnitude and direction of change in nitrogen deliveries to the Chesapeake Bay. The results are highly sensitive to the choice of future baseline scenario and to whether there are CO2 enrichment effects. The results are also highly sensitive to assumptions about the impact of climate change on commodity prices facing farmers in the Chesapeake Bay region. The results indicate that economic responses by farmers to climate change definitely matter. Assuming that farmers do not respond to changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 levels could lead to mistaken conclusions about the magnitude and direction of environmental impacts.

关键词： 渭南市   气候变化   农业   影响   发展趋势  

摘要： 系统分析了近十年与前四十年渭南市平均气温、极端气温、年平均降水量、年平均日照时数等要素变化规律 ,探讨了气候变化对农业的影响 。

关键词： 气候变化   脆弱性   农业生产   黄土高原  

摘要： 根据 IPCC定义和实地考察、文献、问卷调查等结果确定了评价黄土高原地区农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性判别指标体系及其权重分配结果 ,并对几个代表站点做了脆弱性现状评估 ,为进一步完成黄土高原地区农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性地区分布和对策研究提供了一定的基础和方法。

关键词： land-use   forest sector   economics  

摘要： A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change scenarios on the US forest and agricultural sectors, including impacts on forest carbon inventories. Four scenarios of the biological response of forests to climate change (reflected by changes in forest growth rates) are drawn from a national assessment of climate change and are based on combinations of global circulation and ecological process models. These scenarios are simulated in the forest and agricultural sector model and results are summarized to characterize broad impacts of climate change on the sectors. We find that less cropland is projected to be converted to forests, forest inventories generally increase, and that aggregate economic impacts (across all consumers and producers in the sector) are relatively small. Producers' income is most at risk, and impacts of global climate change on the two sectors vary over the 100-year projection period. The forest sector is found to have adjustment mechanisms that mitigate climate change impacts, including interregional migration of production, substitution in consumption, and altered stand management.

关键词： CLIMATIC changes   AGRICULTURE   PEANUTS   COWPEA  

摘要： During the last 30 years, the climate of the West African Sahel has undergone various changes, especially in terms of rainfall. This has large consequences for the poor-resource farmers depending mainly on rainfed agriculture. This paper investigates the impacts of current climate variability and future climate change on groundnut and cowpea production in Niger for three major agricultural regions, including the groundnut basin. Niger was one of the largest West African groundnut producing and exporting countries. Groundnut production-as a cash crop-dropped from about 312,000 tons in the mid 1960s (about 68% exported) to as low as 13,000 tons in 1988 and increased again to 110,000 tons in 2000. Cowpea, a food crop, shows a different tendency, going from 4, 000 tons in the mid fifties to a maximum of 775,000 tons in 1997, and its cultivated area is still increasing. It is also a cash crop in local economies (especially for women). To highlight the impact of climate change on groundnut and cowpea production (significantly determined by rainfall in July, August and September), the following components of the rainfall regime were calculated for the period 1951-1998: mean annual and monthly rainfall, beginning, end and length of the rainy season, number of rainy days per month, amount of rainfall per rainy day and the maximum length of dry spell per month. Three sub-periods whose duration varied per region were defined: for Dosso 1951-1968, 1969-1984 and 1985-1998;for Maradi 1951-1970, 1971-1987 and 1988-1998;and for Zinder 1951-1966, 1967-1984 and 1985-1998. A change in rainfall regime components was observed between the three sub-periods, which were characterized in chronological order by wet, dry and intermediate conditions. To assess the impact of climate variability and change on groundnut and cowpea production, a statistical modeling approach has been followed, based on thirteen predictors as described and discussed in the preceding paper. Climate change is mimicke

关键词： agriculture   Millet   Countries (nations)   climate change   agricultural production   Case studies   Sahel   AFRICAN, WEST   Rainfall   rain   Niger  

摘要： In the last 30 years the climate of the West African Sahel has shown various changes, especially in terms of rainfall, of which inter-annual variability is very high. This has significant consequences for the poor-resource farmers, whose incomes depend mainly on rainfed agriculture. The West African Sahel is already known as an area characterized by important interaction between climate variability and key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture and water resources. More than 80% of the 55 million population of West African Sahel is rural, involved in agriculture and stock-farming, the two sectors contributing almost 35% of the countries' GDPs. It is therefore obvious that climate change seriously affects the economies of these countries. Adding to this situation the high rate of population increase (similar to3%), leading to progressive pressure upon ecosystems, and poor sanitary facilities, one comes to the conclusion that Sahelian countries, Niger amongst them, will be highly vulnerable to climate change. This paper investigates the impact of current climate variability and future climate change on millet production for three major millet-producing regions in Niger. Statistical models have been used to predict the effects of climate change on future production on the basis of thirteen available predictors. Based on the analysis of the past 30-years of rainfall and production data, the most significant predictors of the model are (i) sea surface temperature anomalies, (ii) the amount of rainfall in July, August and September, (iii) the number of rainy days and (iv) the wind erosion factor. In 2025, production of millet is estimated to be about 13% lower as a consequence of climate change, translated into a reduction of the total amount of rainfall for July, August and September, combined with an increase in temperature while maintaining other significant predictors at a constant level. Subsequently, various potential strategies to compensate this loss are evalu