关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   水资源   气候特点  

摘要： 林口县位于黑龙江省的东南部,129°17’～30°45’E,44°46’～45°58’N。在张广才岭、老爷岭、达山余脉之间的“低山丘陵”。气候特点属中温大陆性季风气候,冬季寒冷少雪、春季少雨干、夏季降水分段集中、秋季凉爽,初霜偏早。由于复杂的地形影响,各乡镇气候差异较大,多项气要素的分布也很不均匀。但光、热、水三大气候素能满足农作物生长发育的需要。为了更好地发农业生产潜力,充分合理利用气候资源,以科带动农业生产的发展,根据林口县气象局957～2003年气候资料进行初步地计算分析,研了1991～2003年气候变化对农业生产及有关方的影响;根据气候变化具有连续性(或周期性)特点,应采取相应的措施

关键词： Ricardian climate change impacts   vulnerability   spatial econometrics   Great Plains   agriculture  

摘要： The "Ricardian" technique for projecting climate change impacts on agriculture has generated an unusual amount of critical attention. Ricardian climate sensitivities are typically viewed as the necessary and static result of exclusively local economic and biophysical conditions. In this paper, six spatial econometric models are estimated to explore how human-environment relationships associated with climate sensitivities have varied over space and time in the Great Plains, 1969-1992. Results indicate that spatial effects, such as extra-local communication processes and proximity to and regulation of Ogallala irrigation water, are important influences on climate sensitivities. Projected climate change impacts also vary significantly with the scale, location, and time of analysis. Under a hypothetical climate change, at the county scale, land values would decline (by up to one-third) in the western counties, but increase (by up to one-half) in the eastern counties. In some cases, the projected impacts for a given county change algebraic sign or order of magnitude during the study period. At the regional scale, impacts are significantly higher in the early years (a projected increase of about 5 percent of regional land values, similar to$7 billion [1992$]) than in the later years (an increase of about one-half of one percent, similar to$0.7 billion). These results suggest that, suitably modified, the Ricardian framework can be used constructively to explore subtle yet important social dimensions of dynamic climate risk, and that on balance the Great Plains system of agricultural production, despite a heterogeneous picture of projected impacts, appears to be increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

关键词： 气候变化特征   柴达木盆地   日最低气温   月降水资料   代表站   日平均气温   农业气候资源   利用   农业影响   农业生产  

摘要： 利用柴达木盆地6个代表站逐日平均气温、逐月降水资料以及逐日最低气温资料,对盆地40a来的气候变化特征进行分析,同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响,为充分利用变化了的农业气候资源,减少不利因素带来的影响提出了对策和建议。

关键词： agriculture   Northeast   climate change   Ecological Impacts of Climate Change   Geographical data  

摘要： This paper measures the economic impacts of climate change on China's agriculture based on the Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture dominated counties, we find that under most climate change scenarios both higher temperature and more precipitation would have an overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Autumn effect is the most positive, but spring effect is the most negative. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the year 2050 shows that the East, the Central part, the South, the northern part of the Northeast, and the Plateau would benefit from climate change, but the Southwest, the Northwest and the southern part of the Northeast may be negatively affected. In the North, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In summary, all of China would benefit from climate change in most scenarios.

关键词： 气候变化   中国   农业生产   影响因素   发展对策  

摘要： 概述温室效应给全球气候带来的变化,进而分析气候变化对我国农业生产的影响,并提出相应的对策。

关键词： Soil carbon   United-states   Impacts   Models   Responses   Land   Soil carbon   United States   Endowments   Farms and Farming Systems   Vulnerability   Economic Conditions   Production systems   Land   climate change   absolute threshold  

摘要： In this paper we develop economic measures of vulnerability to climate change with and without adaptation in agricultural production systems. We implement these measures using coupled, site-specific ecosystem and economic simulation models. This modeling approach has two key features needed to study the response of agricultural production systems to climate change: it represents adaptation as an endogenous, non-marginal economic response to climate change;and it provides the capability to represent the spatial variability in bio-physical and economic conditions that interact with adaptive responses. We apply this approach to the dryland grain production systems of the Northern Plains region of the United States. The results support the hypothesis that the most adverse impacts on net returns distributions tend to occur in the areas with the poorest resource endowments and when mitigating effects of CO2 fertilization and adaptation are absent. We find that relative and absolute measures of vulnerability depend on complex interactions between climate change, CO2 level, adaptation, and economic conditions such as relative output prices. The relationship between relative vulnerability and resource endowments varies with assumptions about climate change, adaptation, and economic conditions. Vulnerability measured with respect to an absolute threshold is inversely related to resource endowments in all cases investigated.

关键词： 气候变化   农业经济   经济评价   农业发展  

摘要： 年代际的全球变化预测及其区域适应 ,是一个属于自然科学和社会科学相互交叉领域的问题。作者将全球气候变化研究与经济学研究结合起来进行探索性思考 ,提出了气候变化与人类经济活动相互关系的研究领域中 4个有待探讨的问题 ,并重点针对其中气候变化对我国农业的影响 ,及气候变化影响下我国农业经济评价问题进行了探讨 ,同时初步讨论了经济评估的验证问题。

关键词： 农业气候   气候变化   特征   嘉兴  

摘要： 利用1961—2000年的逐日气候资料,对嘉兴的光热水等基本的农业气候资源进行了较详细的分析。结果表明:嘉兴年平均温度呈上升趋势,其中冬季增温最大,近10年来表现突出;最高温度增幅小于最低温度的增幅,导致日较差减小;年降水量变幅不大,但汛期降水有增多趋势;日照明显减少,主要表现为夏季日照的欠缺。

关键词： 气候变化   种植结构   调整对策  

摘要： 通过对河北省广宗县 1972～ 2 0 0 2年逐年温度、降水、日照资料的分析 ,总结出了其气候变化特点 :2 0世纪70年代气温比较稳定 ,降水呈减少、日照呈增加趋势 ;80年代 ,气温变化比较平稳 ,降水呈增多趋势 ,日照呈减少趋势 ;90年代以来 ,气温升高 ,降水减少 ,日照增加的趋势很明显。分析广宗县现有农业种植结构现状和存在的问题 ,提出充分利用气候资源 ,发展节水农业、改良土壤、防风固沙、发展特色农业等调整对策。

关键词： 黄土高原   生态气候环境   气候变化   气候生产潜力   光温生产潜力   农业  

摘要： 分析了黄土高原的气候生态环境特征,计算了近40a黄土高原的光温和气候生产潜力,并根据未来气候变化的可能情景,计算和分析了未来50a该地区光温和气候生产潜力的可能变化。结果表明,在未来50a,除东南部外,其它各区总的来说无论是小麦的光温生产潜力还是气候生产潜力均有所增加,而且光温生产潜力增加的幅度大于气候生产潜力的增加幅度。