关键词： 秦皇岛   气候变化   气温   降水   农业   影响  

摘要： 在全球气候变暖的大背景下，秦皇岛区域气候正在发生较为显著的变化。近年来，气温升高、降水减少、干旱严重，给当地经济发展和农业环境造成了很大影响。因此，了解秦皇岛气候变化规律，对提高短期气候预测水平和指导本地工农业生产具有重要参考意义。 根据秦皇岛市5个气象观测站1960～2005年气温及降水资料，从年和季的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、降水量趋势变化角度对秦皇岛市近45年来气候变化做了较全面分析。结果表明：近45年来，秦皇岛市年及四季平均气温均呈上升趋势，特别是近15a增暖幅度明显。各季气温趋势与年变化一致，但增温幅度差异较大，冬季增温幅度最大。年平均最高气温呈上升趋势，1988年以来升温明显。冬季变幅最大，1987年以来连续出现偏暖年份，2001年冬季平均最高气温达到45a来的最高值。年平均最低气温也呈上升趋势，1988年以来急剧增暖，至1999年连续12年持续偏暖，变幅最大的也是冬季。最低气温的增温趋势和变化幅度均明显高于最高气温，即夜间气温有较强的增温趋势，白天有较弱的增温趋势，气温日较差逐渐减小。秦皇岛市降水总趋势减少，90年代后减少趋势显著，为有气象记录以来最严重的干旱阶段。夏季降水减少趋势显著，1999年后降水均为负距平，为降水最少阶段，其它三季降水变化没有通过显著性检验。≥0.1毫米降水日数呈减少趋势，每10年减少1.6个雨日。夏季降水日数显著减少，各级降水日数也呈减少趋势，暴雨日数的减少最明显。极端降水的强度和频次均减少，最长连续无降水日数增加。 秦皇岛市日照时数呈逐渐减少趋势，阶段性变化显著。年蒸发量呈明显下降趋势，四季蒸发量均减少，春、夏季减少趋势显著。相对湿度变化不显著，但总体呈下降趋势，主要表现在春、秋、冬三季。秦皇岛市积温增多、初霜拖后、终霜提前，无霜期增长。 秦皇岛市干旱频次逐渐提高，强度逐渐增强，严重干旱年份在80年代后。春旱、冬旱发生机率大，伏旱成灾程度明显大于春旱和秋旱。洪涝出现次数少于干旱，但致灾程度严重，洪涝频次逐渐减少，强度减弱。冰雹发生在一天中的14～20时，54％发生在午后15～17时，90年代后降雹日数明显减少。各级冷冻害呈减少趋势，低温连阴雨发生次数逐渐越少。干热风1980年以前十年九遇，1990年以后干热风日数减少明显。 秦皇岛气温升高，对农业生产起到有益作用，但温度升高使作物发育速度加快，生育期缩短，导致单产下降，可能使地区气候生产潜力下降。温度升高可能加快海平面上升速度导致秦皇岛农田盐碱化，土壤质量下降，可耕地面积减少。降水减少使土壤墒情变干，水资源短缺对农业生产的威胁更加突出。气候变暖尤其冬季增温幅度大使病虫害发生几率明显增大，并呈上升趋势。气候变化使粮食作物产量呈逐步增加趋势，但年际波动大，80年代后秦皇岛市气象灾害频发，由此造成农业气象减产年的频率增大。 本文基于多站点、长年代的实测数据，对多个气候要素的长期变化进行了全面系统的研究，同时分析了秦皇岛市极端天气气候事件和气象灾害的变化趋势，并探讨了气候变化对农业影响，是秦皇岛市迄今为止最为系统、完整地研究该地区气候变化的工作，具有特色和创新性；可为秦皇岛市适应气候变化、趋利避害、防灾减灾提供重要参考，研究结果将在农业气象服务和天气预报工作中得到应用。

关键词： 农业开发项目   全球环境基金   气候变化   北京  

摘要： 2006年11月28日，利用全球环境基金实施适应气候变化农业开发项目准备会在北京召开，来自世行三期项目的河北、江苏、安徽、山东、河南、宁夏6省（区）项目办的同志参加了会议。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生态环境   影响   分析  

摘要： 本文从海东地区的气候及特点和农业生态环境的关系出发,通过对代表海东地区东、南、北三个地区的民和、化隆、互助三县近40a 气温、降水等资料的统计,分析海东地区气候变化对该地区农业生态环境的影响,并提出相应的治理对策。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 利用白银市4个代表站逐日平均气温、逐日地面最低温度,分别得到≥0℃初终日期、初终霜冻日期以及利用逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和逐月降水资料,对白银市近47a的气候变化特征进行分析,同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响,为充分利用变化了的农业气候资源,减少不利因素带来的影响提出了对策和建议。

关键词： CLIMATIC changes   SCIENTIFIC community   AGRICULTURAL productivity   SIMULATION methods & models   AGRICULTURAL systems   AGRICULTURAL ecology   CROPS & climate   CROP management   FARMERS  

摘要： During the recent decade, with the growing recognition of the possibility of climate change and clear evidence of observed changes in climate during 20(th) century, an increasing emphasis on food security and its regional impacts has come to forefront of the scientific community. In recent times, the crop simulation models have been used extensively to study the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security. The output provided by the simulation models can be used to make appropriate crop management decisions and to provide farmers and others with alternative options for their farming system. It is expected that in the coming decades with the increased use of computers, the use of simulation models by farmers and professionals as well as policy and decision makers will increase. In India, substantial work has been done in last decade aimed at understanding the nature and magnitude of change in yield of different crops due to projected climate change. This paper presents an overview of the state of the knowledge of possible effect of the climate variability and change on food grain production in India.

关键词： 全球气候变化   农业生态系统   CO2增浓   UV-B辐射增强   气温升高  

摘要： 全球气候变化在不同时间和空间尺度上对农业生态系统产生深刻的影响,并引起了世界各国科学家、政府的极大关注。本文从CO2浓度和气温升高、UV-B辐射增强等方面综述了全球气候变化对作物、土壤、畜牧业、病虫害以及气候灾害的影响,提出了全球气候变化下未来应加强研究的领域。

关键词： climate change   expert systems   modelling climate change   Land Suitability Analysis   agricultural commodities   Victorian Greenhouse Strategy   ecologically sustainable agriculture initiative   climate impact scenarios  

摘要： This pilot project determines the potential for growing Cool Climate Grapes, high yield pasture and blue gum across Gippsland (Victoria, Australia), and the likely shift in that potential as projected climate change occurs in the region. It provides an indication of the information that can be generated combining Land Suitability Analysis and climate change scenarios. By considering the changing suitability of a few key agricultural enterprises in this region, the project offers an important direction for the agricultural elements of the Victorian Greenhouse Strategy. This pilot project utilises Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) developed by the former Victorian Department of Natural Resources and Environment (DNRE) under the National Land and Water Resources Audit of Australia and further enhanced with Local Government and Catchment Management Authorities across Victoria. This modelling technique allows for an assessment of impacts on a wide range of commodities beyond the historic focus of cropping and pasture models. Following a series of workshops with agronomists, soil scientists, climate scientists, strategic planners and growers, a series of maps/overlays were prepared for Gippstand showing potential suitability of blue gum plantations, Cool Climate Grapes and high yield pasture, as an initial illustration of the methodology. This potential suitability has since been adjusted/modified using a variety of climate change scenarios developed by CSIRO Climate Impacts Group, resulting in an assessment of the change in potential suitability for each enterprise at years 2020 and 2050. The resultant work can be analysed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to consider change over time and space in the region. Combined with changes in water availability, this may act as an innovative and powerful decision support tool for policy makers in government and industry. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 白银   霜冻   气候   农业  

摘要： 利用1971-2005年甘肃省白银市辖区4个台站逐日地面最低温度资料，统计分析了早、晚霜冻发生的气候特征和时间变化规律．结果表明，白银市晚霜冻平均结束日期在5月上旬，南晚北早，山区晚于川区，年际变化南北小中部大．早霜冻平均开始日期在10月上旬，南早北晚，山区早于川区，年际变化从北向南增大．晚霜冻结束日期具有13a和5a左右的周期，受气候变暖影响近35a采晚霜冻提前了17d左右，早霜冻变化不大．并分析了霜冻对农业生产的影响，提出了防御对策．

关键词： phosphorus   eutrophication   hydrology   rainfall  

摘要： Trichonis Lake is the largest natural freshwater body in Greece with a surface area of 97 km(2). It receives pollutants from numerous anthropogenic activities, especially from intensive agricultural practices, urban sewages, stock grazing land and small industries. In this study, hydrologic and chemical parameters are assessed during two periods (1990-1991) and (2001-2002) to evaluate the effects of the climatic changes on phosphorous trends and consequently on the trophic status of Trichonis Lake. Even though large quantities of fertilizers are applied in the lake's catchment, phosphorus loads are still in the permissible level as estimated according to Vollenweider's relationship based on total phosphorus concentration. Due to relatively higher rainfall precipitation during the last years, an increased amount of the phosphorus entering into the lake system is flushed out, thus keeping the trophic status of the lake in oligotrophic levels. In contrast, lower rainfall rates during the first period (1990-1991) have led to the decrease in phosphorus flush out and its detainment into the lake water and sediment resulting to mesotrophic conditions. As the trophic status of the lake is mainly hydrologically dependent and thus unpredictable, effective management plans targeting the elimination of nutrient pollution loadings are necessary.

关键词： soil carbon   simulation   North Central Region   climate change   SOCRATES   MASIF  

摘要： Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents a significant pool of carbon within the biosphere. Climatic shifts in temperature and precipitation have a major influence on the decomposition and amount of SOC stored within an ecosystem. We have linked net primary production algorithms, which include the impact of enhanced atmospheric CO2 on plant growth, to the Soil Organic Carbon Resources And Transformations in EcoSystems (SOCRATES) model to develop a SOC map for the North Central Region of the United States between the years 1850 and 2100 in response to agricultural activity and climate conditions generated by the CSIRO Mk2 Global Circulation Model (GCM) and based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a emission scenario. We estimate that the current day (1990) stocks of SOC in the top 10 cm of the North Central Region to be 4692 Mt, and 8090 Mt in the top 20 cm of soil. This is 19% lower than the pre-settlement steady state value predicted by the SOCRATES model. By the year 2100, with temperature and precipitation increasing across the North Central Region by an average of 3.9 degrees C and 8.1 cm, respectively, SOCRATES predicts SOC stores of the North Central Region to decline by 11.5 and 2% (in relation to 1990 values) for conventional and conservation tillage scenarios, respectively.