摘要： Homogenization of crop portfolios from the field to the global scale is raising concerns about agricultural adaptation to climate change. Assessing whether such trends threaten farmers' long-term adaptive capacity requires a thorough understanding of changes in their crop portfolios, identification of the drivers of change, and the implications such changes have for local nutrition and food production. We reviewed the available literature on farmers' reports of climate-driven crop changes. Small-scale farmers tend to adopt water-demanding crops, even in areas where models predict that reduced rainfall will reduce yields. The adoption of horticultural cash-crops combined with the abandonment of subsistence cereals modifies farmers' nutritional inputs in terms of calories and nutrients, potentially undermining their food security. Farmers' knowledge contributes to understand trends in crop diversity and support the design of strategies for adaptation to climate change.

摘要： The Netherlands is facing a set of serious interrelated environmental and economic challenges, some of which are developing to crisis levels. These challenges also impinge significantly on agriculture. With respect to agriculture, Phosphate, Nitrate, water and climate impacts present key environmental challenges. The preservation of biodiversity, landscapes, animal welfare and the use of antibiotics are also elements which could be added to the list. Given the multiple challenges and the need to adhere to the legal commitments of several sustainability and climate objectives, an integrated approach to addressing these challenges is needed. In other words, there is a need for policy optimisation. As a follow-up to their commitment to the Paris Agreement, the Dutch government took action by developing a national Climate Agreement (Klimaatakkoord). In order to provide more insights into the actions needed for the longer run (until 2050), a special study exploring different scenarios was issued, the main outcomes of which are presented in this article with a focus on the climate challenge. This study suggests that there is still considerable potential from both livestock farming and agricultural soils to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, even at the current scale of the agricultural sector.

关键词： Agriculture   climate change   kaolin   microclimate engineering   pistachio   Q16   Q54   Q11   C63  

摘要： Can farmers adapt to climate change by altering effective weather conditions on their fields? Existing technologies allow farmers to cool down plants by a few degrees during critical periods, reducing the damage from excess heat. With nonlinear effects of high temperatures on yields, slight cooling can bring significant gains in many crops. We call this approach "microclimate engineering" (MCE) and note that it could be useful as a climate change adaptation concept. Our case study deals with California pistachios, threatened by warming daytime temperatures in the winter. A new solution for sunlight reflection, based on products already used in other contexts and crops, could potentially help deal with this challenge. We develop a model to analyze grower choice and market outcomes with MCE for California pistachios. The expected increase in welfare for the period of 2020-2040 is assessed at 0.49-1.42 billion dollars under several scenarios. Simulation results show increases in consumer surplus and total welfare when MCE is available but decreases in aggregate grower profits. We also introduce market power to test its potential effects on the gains from MCE, finding mixed effects.

关键词： climate change   heightened reservoir   reservoir water balance   water supply evaluation  

摘要： Drought has been frequently occurring in South Korea due to climate change. Analyzing the water supply capacity of the water resource system provides essential information for water resource management. This study evaluates the future water supply capacity of the Gwanghye (GH) agricultural reservoir based on the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. We performed a reservoir simulation by reflecting the full water level of the reservoir before and after reservoir heightening. Climate change is expected to decrease the GH reservoir's future available water resources due to the overall reduction in the reservoir's runoff. After the reservoir-heightening project, an overall improvement was observed in the stability of the future irrigation water supply. Moreover, the remaining water after the supply of the irrigation water could supply 0.6-7.2 x 10(3) m(3) of daily instream water. Thus, flexible reservoir operations are necessary according to climate change scenarios and the reservoir operation period. The use of climate change information should be expanded to establish reasonable water management policies for future climate change scenarios.

摘要： Even though agricultural and land sector emissions contribute almost one-quarter of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, it has been a long struggle to properly recognise and discuss within the UNFCCC framework the contribution that these sectors can make to the global mitigation effort. This is despite the fact that many countries' Nationally Determined Contributions highlight the potential for abatement in these sectors, though commitments are often made contingent on receipt of external finance. A major breakthrough occurred with the adoption of the Koronivia Joint Work Programme on Agriculture at COP23 in 2017. The two UNFCCC subsidiary bodies charged with implementing this work programme will report back on its outcomes at the COP26 in Glasgow in November. The UK government's Campaign for Nature, under its COP Presidency to highlight the importance of nature-based solutions, can also help to strengthen the focus on the importance of these sectors. This article describes the background to these discussions and discusses possible outcomes at COP26 of relevance to the agriculture and land sectors.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响因素   处理策略  

摘要： 全球气候变暖导致的气候变化对农业发展产生了极为重大影响.鉴于此,本文分析了气候变化的趋势并介绍了影响农业生产的气象因素,提出了几点行之有效的处理策略.

关键词： 气候   财政支农支出   农业产出   多重共线性  

摘要： 农业是国民经济的命脉,农业生产直接关系到国家经济发展和社会安定,而农业生产容易受气候等因素影响。基于2000—2018年的相关数据,采用回归分析、多重共线性检验及修正等定量方法研究气候变化、财政支农支出等因素对农业生产的影响。结果显示,影响农业产出的因素主要有年均气温、年均降水量、财政支农支出等。其中,气温变化和降水量变化均与农业产出呈负相关,财政支农支出与农业生产呈正相关。因此,应当严格控制CO2排放量,降低温室效应对农业生产造成的负面影响,同时加强对农业生产的扶持力度,提高财政支农支出,以增加农业产出。

关键词： 家庭农场   气候变化   认知   适应性行为  

摘要： 目前,气候变化与自然灾害发生的频率越来越高,而首当其冲受影响的便是农业。论文通过对全国多个粮食主产省份的新型农业经营主体——家庭农场的农户进行问卷调查,发现约有75%的农户能够感受到气候变化及其对农业生产的影响。不同性别、区域、教育背景、务农年限的农户对气候变化的认知程度存在差异,且农户更倾向于依靠自身的力量来适应气候变化。论文最后提出政府要加大对农业保险和气候变化知识的宣传力度、推进不同特征农户之间合作等政策建议。

关键词： agroclimatic resources   adaptation   grain crops   climate change   long-term dynamics   Northern Kazakhstan   agriculture   steppe zone   dry-steppe zone   yield  

摘要： The long-term dynamics of the average air temperatures and amounts of annual precipitation confirms the reality of climate change since the 1970s on the territory of Akmola oblast, one of the leading agricultural regions in Kazakhstan. The structure of agricultural production in the oblast is dominated by the rainfed cultivation of grain crops, in particular, spring wheat, which is known to be extremely sensitive to climatic and weather conditions. Analysis of the climatic indicators for 1931-2019 based on available data from meteorological stations identified intraregional features of climate change that led to an increase in the yield of grain crops. Correlation analysis established a high dependence of productivity on the climatic conditions of the warm period. If the current level of farming culture and the continued growth of average temperatures persist, the productivity in the dry-steppe and southern steppe regions of the oblast is expected to decrease. In the northern steppe regions, more intense trends in the climatic indicators of the cold months favor an increase in yields and an expansion of agricultural production. Intraregional differences in the intensity of climatic trends must be taken into account for the further development of agriculture in Akmola oblast. The following measures are proposed in order to avoid the negative consequences of climate change: the introduction of adaptation technologies, the diversification of agricultural production, the development of organic agriculture, and active support for agricultural producers.

关键词： Climate change   Deep uncertainty   Water management   Decision making   Adaptation pathways  

摘要： Analysis of climate change impacts as well as conscious decision-making and long-term planning in complex water resources systems require use of innovative approaches under conditions of deep climate uncertainty. This research aims to design and evaluate robust adaptable plans under deep climate uncertainties in the agricultural sector. For this purpose, a combination of the Adaptation Pathways (AP) approach in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to evaluate the robustness of adaptation actions and to design robust adaptation pathways under future climate uncertainties in the Hablehroud River Basin, Iran. Deep climate uncertainties are specified as plausible climate scenario combinations according to the average precipitation and temperature changes in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, 2020-2080. According to the results, changes in cropping patterns represent the most robust adaptation action across various combinations of climate scenarios. Other adaptation actions, including deficit irrigation, changes in crop planting dates, and improving irrigation efficiency, are fairly robust in the specific time period from 2020 to 2080. Sequencing of these adaptation actions based on their robustness and expiry date results in designing adaptation pathway maps under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Finally, different preferred pathways are identified based on the expiry date of each robust adaptation action. Changes in cropping patterns can be selected as the most robust adaptation pathway (robustness greater than 80) under deep climate uncertainty among these different pathways. Suggesting other preferred pathways can be helpful to select reasonable pathways for implementation.