关键词： 气候变化   农业生态环境   影响   分析  

摘要： 本文从海东地区的气候及特点和农业生态环境的关系出发,通过对代表海东地区东、南、北三个地区的民和、化隆、互助三县近40a 气温、降水等资料的统计,分析海东地区气候变化对该地区农业生态环境的影响,并提出相应的治理对策。

摘要： The media preoccupation with El Nino and recent weather calamities suggests that nearly everyone should be aware, at least at a superficial level, of the possibilities for global climate changes. Endless articles in the popular press and scientific journal literature have reported a plethora of possible climate change outcomes, supported of course by a judicious selection of observations and reference citations. All this speculation has given rise to assertions that the scientific community is struggling with an uncomfortable dichotomy between genuine and justified concern versus enhanced budgets and notoriety that come with dire scenarios. Perhaps the climate-change research community is second only to the medical research community in having its credibility shaken by premature airing of uncertain findings.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 利用白银市4个代表站逐日平均气温、逐日地面最低温度,分别得到≥0℃初终日期、初终霜冻日期以及利用逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和逐月降水资料,对白银市近47a的气候变化特征进行分析,同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响,为充分利用变化了的农业气候资源,减少不利因素带来的影响提出了对策和建议。

关键词： CLIMATIC changes   SCIENTIFIC community   AGRICULTURAL productivity   SIMULATION methods & models   AGRICULTURAL systems   AGRICULTURAL ecology   CROPS & climate   CROP management   FARMERS  

摘要： During the recent decade, with the growing recognition of the possibility of climate change and clear evidence of observed changes in climate during 20(th) century, an increasing emphasis on food security and its regional impacts has come to forefront of the scientific community. In recent times, the crop simulation models have been used extensively to study the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security. The output provided by the simulation models can be used to make appropriate crop management decisions and to provide farmers and others with alternative options for their farming system. It is expected that in the coming decades with the increased use of computers, the use of simulation models by farmers and professionals as well as policy and decision makers will increase. In India, substantial work has been done in last decade aimed at understanding the nature and magnitude of change in yield of different crops due to projected climate change. This paper presents an overview of the state of the knowledge of possible effect of the climate variability and change on food grain production in India.

关键词： 全球气候变化   农业生态系统   CO2增浓   UV-B辐射增强   气温升高  

摘要： 全球气候变化在不同时间和空间尺度上对农业生态系统产生深刻的影响,并引起了世界各国科学家、政府的极大关注。本文从CO2浓度和气温升高、UV-B辐射增强等方面综述了全球气候变化对作物、土壤、畜牧业、病虫害以及气候灾害的影响,提出了全球气候变化下未来应加强研究的领域。

关键词： climate change   expert systems   modelling climate change   Land Suitability Analysis   agricultural commodities   Victorian Greenhouse Strategy   ecologically sustainable agriculture initiative   climate impact scenarios  

摘要： This pilot project determines the potential for growing Cool Climate Grapes, high yield pasture and blue gum across Gippsland (Victoria, Australia), and the likely shift in that potential as projected climate change occurs in the region. It provides an indication of the information that can be generated combining Land Suitability Analysis and climate change scenarios. By considering the changing suitability of a few key agricultural enterprises in this region, the project offers an important direction for the agricultural elements of the Victorian Greenhouse Strategy. This pilot project utilises Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) developed by the former Victorian Department of Natural Resources and Environment (DNRE) under the National Land and Water Resources Audit of Australia and further enhanced with Local Government and Catchment Management Authorities across Victoria. This modelling technique allows for an assessment of impacts on a wide range of commodities beyond the historic focus of cropping and pasture models. Following a series of workshops with agronomists, soil scientists, climate scientists, strategic planners and growers, a series of maps/overlays were prepared for Gippstand showing potential suitability of blue gum plantations, Cool Climate Grapes and high yield pasture, as an initial illustration of the methodology. This potential suitability has since been adjusted/modified using a variety of climate change scenarios developed by CSIRO Climate Impacts Group, resulting in an assessment of the change in potential suitability for each enterprise at years 2020 and 2050. The resultant work can be analysed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to consider change over time and space in the region. Combined with changes in water availability, this may act as an innovative and powerful decision support tool for policy makers in government and industry. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 白银   霜冻   气候   农业  

摘要： 利用1971-2005年甘肃省白银市辖区4个台站逐日地面最低温度资料，统计分析了早、晚霜冻发生的气候特征和时间变化规律．结果表明，白银市晚霜冻平均结束日期在5月上旬，南晚北早，山区晚于川区，年际变化南北小中部大．早霜冻平均开始日期在10月上旬，南早北晚，山区早于川区，年际变化从北向南增大．晚霜冻结束日期具有13a和5a左右的周期，受气候变暖影响近35a采晚霜冻提前了17d左右，早霜冻变化不大．并分析了霜冻对农业生产的影响，提出了防御对策．

关键词： phosphorus   eutrophication   hydrology   rainfall  

摘要： Trichonis Lake is the largest natural freshwater body in Greece with a surface area of 97 km(2). It receives pollutants from numerous anthropogenic activities, especially from intensive agricultural practices, urban sewages, stock grazing land and small industries. In this study, hydrologic and chemical parameters are assessed during two periods (1990-1991) and (2001-2002) to evaluate the effects of the climatic changes on phosphorous trends and consequently on the trophic status of Trichonis Lake. Even though large quantities of fertilizers are applied in the lake's catchment, phosphorus loads are still in the permissible level as estimated according to Vollenweider's relationship based on total phosphorus concentration. Due to relatively higher rainfall precipitation during the last years, an increased amount of the phosphorus entering into the lake system is flushed out, thus keeping the trophic status of the lake in oligotrophic levels. In contrast, lower rainfall rates during the first period (1990-1991) have led to the decrease in phosphorus flush out and its detainment into the lake water and sediment resulting to mesotrophic conditions. As the trophic status of the lake is mainly hydrologically dependent and thus unpredictable, effective management plans targeting the elimination of nutrient pollution loadings are necessary.

关键词： soil carbon   simulation   North Central Region   climate change   SOCRATES   MASIF  

摘要： Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents a significant pool of carbon within the biosphere. Climatic shifts in temperature and precipitation have a major influence on the decomposition and amount of SOC stored within an ecosystem. We have linked net primary production algorithms, which include the impact of enhanced atmospheric CO2 on plant growth, to the Soil Organic Carbon Resources And Transformations in EcoSystems (SOCRATES) model to develop a SOC map for the North Central Region of the United States between the years 1850 and 2100 in response to agricultural activity and climate conditions generated by the CSIRO Mk2 Global Circulation Model (GCM) and based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a emission scenario. We estimate that the current day (1990) stocks of SOC in the top 10 cm of the North Central Region to be 4692 Mt, and 8090 Mt in the top 20 cm of soil. This is 19% lower than the pre-settlement steady state value predicted by the SOCRATES model. By the year 2100, with temperature and precipitation increasing across the North Central Region by an average of 3.9 degrees C and 8.1 cm, respectively, SOCRATES predicts SOC stores of the North Central Region to decline by 11.5 and 2% (in relation to 1990 values) for conventional and conservation tillage scenarios, respectively.

关键词： 气候变化   降水   气温   福州  

摘要： 以福州市34年的降水和气温基本气象资料,分析了气候变化的特征和规律。福州市年平均气温呈现上升趋势,主要集中于春、冬季;年降水量主要集中在春季和夏季,近期呈现减少趋势。文中并指出了气候变化对农业产量、气象灾害等方面的影响。