关键词： 气温   变化特征   农业生产  

摘要： 利用1961-2006年近46年大理州12个站点的观测资料，对该地区的年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温的长期变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：近46年来大理州气温呈逐渐变暖趋势。20世纪80年代以后变暖趋势表现明显，21世纪以来增幅较大。其中最低温度的升高幅度大于最高温度和平均温度的升高幅度。

关键词： 农业可持续发展   农业自然灾害   气候变化   中国农学会   专业委员会   农业资源   农业信息   农业气象  

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   CO2 fertilization   Impacts   Adaptation   Canada  

摘要： This study involves the assessment of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas climate change and changing ambient carbon dioxide (CO2) levels on crop yields in Quebec, Canada. The methodology involves coupling the transient diagnostics of two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models, namely the Canadian CGCM1 and the British HadCM3, to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 3.5 crop models to simulate current (1961-1990) and future (2040-2069) crop yields and changes. This is done for four different crop species, namely spring wheat, maize, soybean, and potato, and for seven agricultural regions of Southern Quebec. The results of this study focus on the main causative factors influencing crop yields, namely the direct CO2 fertilization effect, the influence of the increase in growing season temperature, including optimal thermal conditions and acceleration in crop maturation, soil moisture availability, as influenced by precipitation and evapotranspiration, and nitrogen uptake by crops. Our results show that crop yield changes may vary according to climate scenario, crop species, and agricultural region. Consistent with other similar research, it would seem that these multiple causative factors very often seem to cancel each other out and dilute the impacts of climate change on crop yields.

关键词： agriculture   agricultural sector   Water Management   cropping patterns   Sacramento Valley   Case studies   climate change   climate change impact   Sectoring   Sacramento River   Irrigation efficiency   water circulation  

摘要： As part of the 2006 Climate Change Report to Governor Schwarzenegger and the California Legislature, an application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system in the Sacramento River Basin was deployed to look at the impact of climate change on agricultural water management and the potential for adaptation. The WEAP system includes a dynamically integrated rainfall runoff hydrology module that generates the components of the hydrologic cycle from input climate time series. This allows for direct simulation of water management responses to climate change without resorting to perturbations of historically observed hydrologic conditions. In the Sacramento River Basin, the four climate time series adopted for the 2006 Climate Change Report were used to simulate agricultural water management without any adaptation and with adaptation in terms of improvements in irrigation efficiency and shifts in cropping patterns during dry periods. These adaptations resulted in lower overall water demands in the agricultural sector, to levels observed during the recent past, and associated reductions in groundwater pumping and increases in surface water allocations to other water use sectors.

关键词： 气候变化   趋势分析   农业生产  

摘要： 利用1953—2005年本溪地区温度和降水资料,运用统计学方法对20世纪80年代前后本溪地区的气候变化特点进行了研究。结果表明:近50多年来,本溪地区的年各季平均气温呈波动性上升趋势,平均气温倾向率为0.28℃/10 a,冬季最大为0.54℃/10 a;年降水量和各季降水量呈波动性减少趋势,年降水量倾向率为-31.67 mm/10 a,春季倾向率为1.54 mm/10 a,其他各季倾向率均为负值;水热匹配条件趋于恶化,干旱发生频率增大。同时,分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响,为合理利用本地气候资源提供参考依据。

关键词： 西北地区   农业   气候变化   土壤水分   气候产量  

摘要： 在比较系统总结全球气候变化对我国西北地区农业影响的主要研究成果的基础上,揭示了我国西北地区现代气候变化对全球气候变暖响应的基本特征,阐述了现代气候变化对土壤水分、地表蒸发和作物气候生产力的影响规律;并且比较全面地概括了西北地区冬、春小麦、玉米、马铃薯、冬油菜、棉花、胡麻、牧草、葡萄等9种主要农作物的生长发育、病虫害、种植面积、气候产量以及畜牧业活动等对气候变化的响应特征,发现气候变化对农业生产过程的影响利弊皆存,而且不同农作物对气候变化的响应特征差异较大。研究对西北地区农业生产具有比较重要的科学指导意见。

关键词： 气候   温度   降水   生态系统   农作物  

摘要： 本文参考国内外发表的有关文章,概述了全球气候变化趋势及其对中国农业可能产生的影响,认为其总的影响是弊大于利。

关键词： 气候变化   气温   降水   影响  

摘要： 利用气温距平、线性倾向、滑动平均及小波分析等方法，对鞍山市1951～2005年鞍山观测站的气温、降水量、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、透雨等资料进行分析，结果发现鞍山市近55a春季气候变化特点为气温、降水呈现上升，且春季降水存在19～20、5和3a的主要变化周期、日照略减少的趋势；平均最低气温升温幅度高于平均最高气温，气温日较差变小；透雨偏晚及极端气候事件频率增大。

关键词： 春季   气候变化   农业生产   山西  

摘要： 利用山西省39个气象站1960-2005年春季平均气温和降水量资料,采用M-K方法,分析了山西省春季气候变化的区域特征。结果表明:春季平均气温全省呈现一致升高的趋势,但存在纵向差异,升温明显区域集中在中部断陷盆地一带;各气候区春季降水变化趋势不明显,主要以年际间的波动为主,西北部春季降水呈现微弱增多的迹象。春季气候的这种变化对农业生产有利也有弊。

关键词： Wheat   Cotton   Crops   Agricultural production   Climate change   Weather  

摘要： Climate changes, associated with accumulation of greenhouse gases, are expected to have a profound influence on agricultural sustainability in Israel, a semi-arid area characterized by a cold wet winter and a dry warm summer. Accordingly this study explored economic aspects of agricultural production under projected climate-change scenarios by the "production function" approach, as applied to two representative crops: wheat, as the major crop grown in Israel's dry southern region, and cotton, representing the more humid climate in the north. Adjusting outputs of the global climate model HadCM3 to the specific research locations, we generated projections for 2070-2100 temperatures and precipitations for two climate change scenarios. Results for wheat vary among climate scenarios;net revenues become negative under the severe scenario (change from -145 to -273%), but may increase under the moderate one (-43 to +35%), depending on nitrogen applied to the crop. Distribution of rain events was found to play a major role in determining yields. By contrast, under both scenarios cotton experiences a considerable decrease in yield with significant economic losses (-240 and -173% in A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively). Additional irrigation and nitrogen may reduce farming losses, unlike changes in seeding dates.