关键词： 气候变化   农业环境   农作物生育   石羊河流域  

摘要： 用石羊河流域气象站47 a气象观测资料和武威农试站37 a农作物生育资料,探讨流域气候变化背景下农业气象、水文变化特征及对作物布局、生育和产量形成的影响。结果表明:流域内≥10℃积温呈逐年代增加趋势,热量条件好转;气候干旱指数呈逐年代增大趋势,暖干化明显;来水量呈逐年代减少趋势,水问题日趋严重;受气候变暖的影响,易受旱害的高耗水作物春小麦种植面积减小,耐旱、喜温的经济作物玉米、棉花种植面积扩大;春小麦生育进程加快,生育期缩短,对产量形成不利,反之,对喜温作物玉米、棉花等提高产量和品质有利。

关键词： Drivers of change   Dryland farming   Land use change   Livelihood strategies   Senegal   West Africa  

摘要： Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

关键词： Q54   Agriculture   Climate change   China   Impacts   Ricardian model  

摘要： This article examines how expected changes in climate are likely to affect agriculture in China. The effects of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues are analyzed using cross-sectional data consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results suggest that global warming is likely to be harmful to rainfed farms but beneficial to irrigated farms. The net impacts will be only mildly harmful at first, but the damages will grow over time. The impacts also vary by region. Farms in the Southeast will only be mildly affected but farms in the Northeast and Northwest will bear the largest damages. However, the study does not capture the indirect effects on farms of possible changes in water flow, which may be important in China.

关键词： 长三角地区   气候变暖   农业生产   农作物  

摘要： 在全球气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化背景下,中国长三角地区的年平均气温不断升高,极端天气气候事件趋多增强。文章根据这一气候变化特点和趋势,结合相关研究报告和资料,分析探讨气候变化对中国长三角地区农作物的生长发育、种植制度、分布结构、病虫害的发生以及沿海的渔业生产等的影响,进而提出相应的对策,指出长三角地区应通过调整种植制度、发展节水农业、推行生态农业、提高灾害预测警水平等措施,积极应对气候变化的影响。

关键词： 《联合国气候变化框架公约》   粮食政策   哥本哈根   研究所   农业   谈判   国际   《京都议定书》  

摘要： 国际粮食政策研究所（IFPRI）发表了这份由粮食政策专家撰写的报告。报告指出，农业将受到气候变化的“显著”影响，但是如果贯彻实施正确的政策，农业还可能强有力地遏制气候变化。报告认为，在通向12月于丹麦哥本哈根举行的《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判的进程中，农业的角色尚未得到支持。IFPRI的负责人3月31日在美国华盛顿的报告发布仪式上说，目前的国际气候变化协议——《京都议定书》中并未重点提及农业，这是由于那时候人们对于农业和气候变化的关系知之甚少。IFPRI的研究员吉拉德·尼尔森说：“我们现在所处的情况是谈判将为未来的5～15年设置新的机制。关键在于这次要把农业纳入其中。”

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   趋势   突变  

摘要： 利用1978-2007年福建省常规气象资料和主要农业气象灾害数据,采用气候倾向率、突变分析、最大熵谱分析等方法研究近30a来福建省气候变化背景下主要农业气象灾害的演变特征和变化趋势。结果表明:福建省气候存在明显变暖的趋势,气候倾向率为0.381℃·10a-1;在这种气候变化背景下,4种主要农业气象灾害表现出不同的变化趋势,其中旱灾呈减少趋势,洪涝、低温冻害和风雹灾害的灾情呈增加趋势,尤其是风雹灾害,进入20世纪90年代后期(突变点在1998年),灾情明显加重。总体上说,农业气象灾害对福建农业生产的影响呈增加趋势,特别是从20世纪80年代中期开始(突变点在1986年),灾情持续扩大,这种变化势必造成农业生产的风险加大。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气候   气候生产潜力模型   气候区划方法   作物生长模式  

摘要： 本文利用京、津、冀地区气象观测及作物生长期资料，结合GIS技术，分析了近40年(1971～2007年)太阳辐射、气温、降水等农业气候资源的时空演变特征，对作物生产潜力模型进行了光、温、水逐级订正，估算了该区冬小麦的光合、光温和气候生产潜力；借助ThornthwaiteMemorial模型，评估了不同气候变化情景下的气候生产潜力变化幅度；提出基于作物生长模式的气候生产潜力计算模型及相对气候生产潜力的新概念。\n 研究结果表明：(1)全区光热资源比较丰富，但大部分区域水分条件相当匮乏，且三大资源不具备雨热同区的组合优势；在全球气候变化大背景下，近40年来，该区光能资源逐年减少，热量资源逐年增加，水分条件保持平稳波动，由于降水年际变化大，导致水分条件很不稳定，若能适时配合农灌措施，可保证作物高产、稳产化。(2)该区光合生产潜力的空间分布特征是西高东低，北高南低，光温生产潜力由南向北渐减，气候生产潜力则东高西低；历年各级生产潜力均呈递减趋势，其中光合潜力递减最显著，光温潜力次之，气候潜力在波动中缓慢递减。(3)“暖湿型”气候对作物气候生产力的提高最有利，相反，“冷干型”气候最不利，“冷湿型”和“暖干型”气候对产量的影响界于前两型之间。总体说来，“偏干型”气候不利于该区作物产量积累。(4)降水量是制约该区气候生产潜力的主要强迫因子，如能保证充足的水分供给，气候产量有望提高1倍。(5)利用生长期内9个气象指标组成气候状态向量建立的代表光、热、水等资源的因子分析模型具有良好效果。(6)基于RPCA(RotatedPrincipalComponentAnalysis)和CAST(ClusterAnalysiswithStatisticTest)相结合的新型区划方法所进行的数值试验，表明该方法用于气候生产潜力区划具有一定的新意。

关键词： 潮州   气候变化   农业生产   影响   对策  

摘要： 用广东省潮州市1957～2006年的气象资料，分析了气候变化的特征和规律。近20年来潮州气温上升明显，夏季高温天气明显增加，冬季低温霜冻、春季低温阴雨、秋季低温冷害天气发生几率明显减小，但仍然有发生的可能；降水季节性变化明显：近10年春季降水明显偏少，夏季降水明显偏多，暴雨等极端气候事件的发生几率有所增加。分析了气候变化对潮州农作物生长发育、产量形成等的影响，提出了调整种植季节、种植布局等农业气象建议、措施，为潮州农业生产顺应气候变化提供依据。

关键词： Environmental-Health  

摘要： The article discusses research by Boxall et al. on human exposure to agricultural chemicals and pathogens in Great Britain that may be associated with global climate change. It indicates that pesticide use and exposure pathways may grow with climate change and affect larger populations of human receptors.

关键词： Atmospheric precipitations   Carbon   Climate change   Climate   Soils   Greenhouse effect   Ecosystem disturbance   Winter   Modelling   Agriculture   Future temperatures   Global climate   Climate models   Numerical simulations   Climatic regions   Global warming   Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change   Precipitation   Climate change scenarios   Historical account   Weather   Grasses   Rainfall   Temperature   agriculture   Simulation   agricultural land   crop production   no-till cropping   Crops   Soil   winter   Semiarid environments   Side effects   Soil Contamination   Climates   Global Warming  

摘要： Under the threat of global warming it is important to determine the impact that future changes in climate may have on the environment and to what extent any adverse effects can be mitigated. In this study we assessed the impact that climate change scenarios may have on soil carbon stocks in Canada and examined the potential for agricultural management practices to improve or maintain soil quality. Historical weather data from 1951 to 2001 indicated that semi-arid soils in western Canada have become warmer and dryer and air temperatures have increased during the spring and winter months. Results from the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM1,2) under two climate change forcing scenarios also indicated that future temperatures would increase more in the spring and winter. Precipitation increased significantly under the IPCC IS92a scenario and agreed with historical trends in eastern Canada whereas the IPCC SRES B2 scenario indicated very little change in precipitation and better matched historical trends in western Canada. The Century model was used to examine the influence of climate change on agricultural soil carbon (C) stocks in Canada. Relative to simulations using historical weather data, model results under the SRES B2 climate scenario indicated that agricultural soils would lose 160 Tg of carbon by 2099 and under the IS92a scenario would lose 53 Tg C. Carbon was still lost from soils in humid climatic regions even though C inputs from crops increased by 10-13%. Carbon factors associated with changes in management practices were also estimated under both climate change scenarios. There was little difference in factors associated with conversion from conventional to no-till agriculture, while carbon factors associated with the conversion of annual crops to perennial grass were lower than for historical data in semi-arid soils because water stress hampered crop production but were higher in humid soils.