关键词： agricultural intensification   agroecological resistance   climate change adaptation   climate extremes   ecological management  

摘要： An inevitable consequence of global climate change is that altered patterns of temperature and precipitation threaten agriculture in marry tropical regions, requiring strategies of human adaptation. Moreover, the process of management intensification in agriculture has increased and may exacerbate vulnerability to climate extremes. Although many solutions have been presented, the role of simple agroecological and agroforestry management has been largely ignored. Some recent literature has shown how sustainable management may improve agroecological resistance to extreme climate events. We comment specifically on a prevalent form of agriculture throughout Latin America, the coffee agroforestry system. Results from the coffee literature have shown that shade management in coffee systems may mitigate the effects of extreme temperature and precipitation, thereby reducing the ecological and economic vulnerability of many rural farmers. We conclude that more traditional forms of agriculture can offer greater potential for adapting to changing conditions than do current intensive systems.

关键词： phenology   lowland rice   thermal time accumulation   observed trend   model deficiency   climate change  

摘要： Current modeling studies on the impacts of climate change on agriculture widely assume that thermal time accumulation of crops during the growing season remains constant under various climate conditions. However, in this study, a 20-year single rice variety, experimental dataset indicates that the thermal time accumulation for the entire growing season is not constant. As a result, a crop model based on constant thermal time accumulation significantly underestimates the observed phenological trend exhibited over the two decades of research-despite comparably accurate simulations of short periods. This deviation can result in misleading yield simulations, whereas the model simulations, using observed phenology data, show a similar yield trend as the observation. This study casts serious doubt on the assumptions of constant thermal time accumulation made in previous modeling studies, and, moreover, it highlights the critical requirements needed to improve phenology simulations on a larger scale so that predictions of the eventual yield trends due to climate change can more accurately reflect the results of yield trends in reality. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   对策  

摘要： 利用统计的方法对聊城市42年来的气候资料进行了分析,探讨了主要农业气候学因子的变化规律和特征,论证了气候变化对聊城市农业生产的影响,并提出了相应的防御对策。

关键词： 政府间气候变化专门委员会   河南省   农业   国家方案   国务院   省政府   组织  

摘要： 气候变化已成为全世界关注的焦点、热点问题。为此，国际上已成立了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）。我国政府也高度重视应对气候变化工作，国务院组织了近20个部委共同研究、制定、发布了《中国应对气候变化国家方案》。河南省委、省政府也组织了多部门，结合本省的实际情况，投入了大量的人力、物力进行研究，贯彻、落实国务院的要求。

关键词： 黑龙港流域   气候变化   农业   影响   对策  

摘要： 近百年来,大气中CO2增多,温室效应进导致了全球气候正经历以大气温度升高、降水分布改变、极端天气事件增多为主要特征的显著变化。为此,黑龙港流域的农业生产受到了正、负两方面的影响。面对这种弊大于利的影响局面,政府从宏观调控、政策引导的层面,宜采用还原法、限制减少CO2排放等对策,农业自身宜采取主动出击法、适应法等措施,保障农业又好又快地发展。

关键词： 气候变化   特征   农业生产   影响   山东菏泽  

摘要： 依据菏泽市气象局1954～2007年的观测资料进行对比分析,找出近27年气候变化及主要气象灾害较前27年发生的变化,分析这种变化对农业生产的可能影响。

关键词： 全球气候变化   农业生产   科技发展   威胁   经济发展   人类社会   小麦产量   澳大利亚  

摘要： 现在全球气候变化已经对人类社会的经济发展、生态与环境等诸多方面产生了影响，而首当其冲的则是农业。去年以来，由于澳大利亚遭受严重旱灾小麦产量下降、出口减少及美国生物柴油政策改变，玉米出口减少，引发全球粮价明显上涨。观测结果显示，在过去的25年，全球气候变化已经导致世界上一些地方的粮食作物减产。那么，全球气候变化对我国现在和未来农业有哪些影响？我们应该有哪些应对措施呢？

关键词： global warming   food production   sensitivity analysis  

摘要： Estimates of climate change impacts are often characterized by large uncertainties that reflect ignorance of many physical, biological, and socio-economic processes, and which hamper efforts to anticipate and adapt to climate change. A key to reducing these uncertainties is improved understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors. We evaluated uncertainties for projections of climate change impacts on crop production for 94 crop-region combinations that account for the bulk of calories consumed by malnourished populations. Specifically, we focused on the relative contributions of four factors: climate model projections of future temperature and precipitation, and the sensitivities of crops to temperature and precipitation changes. Surprisingly, uncertainties related to temperature represented a greater contribution to climate change impact uncertainty than those related to precipitation for most crops and regions, and in particular the sensitivity of crop yields to temperature was a critical source of uncertainty. These findings occurred despite rainfall's important contribution to year-to-year variability in crop yields and large disagreements among global climate models over the direction of future regional rainfall changes, and reflect the large magnitude of future warming relative to historical variability. We conclude that progress in understanding crop responses to temperature and the magnitude of regional temperature changes are two of the most important needs for climate change impact assessments and adaptation efforts for agriculture.

关键词： CLIMATIC changes   AGRICULTURE   MANAGEMENT   MANURE gases   METHANE   NITROUS oxide   BEST management practices (Pollution prevention)   GREENHOUSE gas mitigation   CARBON sequestration   CORN -- Yields   BIOMASS energy  

摘要： This article discusses the connections between climate change and agriculture in the U.S. According to the author, agriculture affects climate change by the greenhouse gas emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. Agriculture can mitigate climate change by utilizing best management practices for fertilizer and manure management, methane digesters and carbon sequestration in soils. The author reviews various U.S. climate scenarios and concludes that the overall impact in the U.S. would be mildly positive on crop yields. The author discusses pending legislation and adaptations to corn ethanol production.

关键词： EFFECT of human beings on climatic changes   GREENHOUSE gases   AGRICULTURE   INDUSTRIALIZATION  

摘要： We test the early anthropogenic hypothesis that greenhouse-gas emissions produced by early agricultural activities in recent millennia kept the climate warmer than its natural level and offset an incipient glaciation. We use versions of the NCAR's Community Climate System Model to investigate the natural climate that might exist today if CO2 and CH4 concentrations had fallen to their average levels reached during previous interglaciations (while ignoring the effects of aerosol changes). The model is run in a coupled atmosphere-slab ocean configuration with fixed land cover in one experiment and interactive vegetation changes in the other. With lowered greenhouse-gas concentrations, global-mean temperature falls by 2.75 K under fixed land cover and by 3.0 K with vegetation feedbacks included. Of the total global cooling with fixed land cover, 38% (62%) is attributable to early agricultural activities (industrialization), while early agriculture accounts for approximately half of the expanded permanent snow cover area. The large-scale cooling is amplified in polar regions, where mean-annual temperatures fall by up to 9 K and sea-ice area more than doubles in the Southern Hemisphere. In high latitudes, boreal forest is replaced by tundra and tundra by polar desert, causing a higher surface albedo that amplifies regional Arctic cooling by up to 2 K annually and 5 K during spring. The greenhouse cooling in our simulations triggers widespread glacial inception in the Northern Hemisphere, where permanent snow cover expands by 80% (206%) without (with) vegetation feedbacks. The regional pattern of incipient glaciation is strongly influenced by both vegetation feedbacks and atmospheric circulation changes. While these results are fully consistent with the early anthropogenic hypothesis, further simulations with a dynamical ocean, higher spatial resolution, and other models are still needed to investigate the origin of human influence on global climate. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd.