关键词： 农业气象   农业气候资源   气候倾向率   突变检验   肇庆市  

摘要： 利用1960—2019年高要区国家地面气象观测站的逐日气象观测资料,通过气候倾向率、M-K突变检验和滑动T检验方法,开展肇庆农业气候资源对全球气候变化的响应分析。结果表明:近60年肇庆年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,1987年突变增暖;年平均最高、最低气温同样显著上升,最低气温升温更显著、突变时间更早;四季都有不同程度的升温,秋、冬季增温尤其显著。各界限温度积温均呈显著增加趋势,热量资源秋季增加最显著、贡献最大。年降水量变化趋势不明显,但波动较大;降水变率呈微弱上升趋势,可能导致春夏涝害和秋冬干旱的概率增大。年平均日照时数呈显著下降趋势,四季日照时数都呈下降趋势,冬、春季日照减少、阴雨寡照天气增多。肇庆农业气候资源变化整体表现为光照资源减少,热量资源增多,降水资源变化趋势不明显,极端天气气候事件增多。农业生产发展需合理利用气候资源,趋利避害,加强应对气象灾害的防御能力建设。

关键词： Climate change   Adaptation   Agriculture   Rice production   Sri Lanka  

摘要： Climate change and its impact on the agricultural sector in developing economies is a matter of considerable academic and political debate. This paper examines the impact of climate change and variability on Sri Lankan agriculture and identifies the potential adaptation practices and their impacts on rice productivity. More spe-cifically, this study investigates how farming households' decisions to adapt to climate change affects agricul-tural productivity in the Batticaloa district of Sri Lanka. The data were collected through a primary survey of 238 farming households. We employ a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to investigate the differing effects of adaptation on adapters and non-adapters. The findings show that most farmers perceive there are adverse climate change impacts on their agricultural production. We also find that farmers' adaptation measures substantially boost rice yields. Moreover, it is shown that such strategies would benefit both adapters and non-adapters. Farmers' access to climate related information, education, membership in farmer organiza-tions and size of plots are found to play a key role in the adaptation process. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence of the positive impact of adaptations on food productivity and farm income, thus suggesting the need for policy interventions that enhance farmers uptake of strategies against climate change impacts.

关键词： Hydrological modeling   Climate change   Water availability   Agricultural productivity   Large scale watershed   Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW  

摘要： Climate change can have an adverse effect on agricultural productivity and water availability in semi-arid regions, as changes in surface water availability lead to groundwater depletion and resultant losses in crop yield. These inter-relationships necessitate an integrated management approach for surface water, groundwater, and crop yield as a holistic system. This study quantifies the future availability of surface water and groundwater and associated crop production in a large semi-arid agro-urban river basin in which agricultural irrigation is a leader consumer of water. The region of study is the South Platte River Basin (72,000 km(2)), Colorado, USA. The coupled SWAT-MODFLOW modeling code is used as the hydrologic simulator and forced with five different CMIP5 climate models downscaled by Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), each for two climate scenarios, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for 1980-2100. The hydrologic model accounts for surface runoff, soil lateral flow, groundwater flow, ground-water-surface water interactions, irrigation from surface water and groundwater, and crop yield on a per-field basis. In all climate models and emission scenarios, an increase of 3 to 5 degrees C in annual average temperature is projected. Whereas, variation in the projected precipitation depends on topography and distances from mountains. Based on the results of this study, the worst-case climate model in the basin is IPSL-CM5A-MR-8.5. Under this climate scenario, for a 1 degrees C increase in temperature and the 1.3% reduction in annual precipitation, the basin will experience an 8.5% decrease in stream discharge, 2-5% decline in groundwater storage, and 11% reduction in crop yield. These results indicate the significant effect of climate change on water and food resources of a large river basin, pointing to the need for immediate implementation of conservation practices. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 农产品市场   粮食出口   国际物流   贸易保护主义   供求失衡   物流成本   市场恐慌   高温酷暑  

摘要： 近年来全球食物系统结构面临多种挑战。首先,气候变化造成的极端气候频发,干旱、洪涝灾害,台风、低温严寒、高温酷暑将会给农业生产带来巨大的不确定性,造成粮食供求失衡。其次,新冠肺炎疫情的暴发给世界食物供应链的稳定性带来冲击,一些粮食出口国颁布限制粮食出口的措施,引发了全球农产品市场的预期变化和市场恐慌。由于疫情导致的停产停工、交通停航、供应链物流中断将会导致国际物流的货运时间延长,物流成本大幅度增加,从而对食物供应链带来断链风险。再次,近年来国际地缘政治经济环境发生了深刻变化,逆全球化思潮和贸易保护主义措施加剧,使全球粮食贸易格局发生变化,加大了中国合理利用国际市场食物资源的风险。

关键词： 惠安县   气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 文章利用1981年-2020年平均气温、降水观测资料对惠安县近40年气候变化特征进行分析,并阐述了气候变化对惠安县农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响。结果表明:惠安县近40年来年平均气温总的来说呈增温变化趋势;四季年平均温度变化与年变化都表现为升温趋势,惠安县平均温度升温幅度最为显著的为春季,其次是冬季和秋季,夏季升温幅度最小;降水量变化总体呈减少变化态势。

关键词： Soil organic carbon   Adaptation   Regional approach   4per1000   Response ratio  

摘要： Climate change adaptation strategies are needed for agriculture, one of the most vulnerable human activities. In Navarre, North of Spain, ongoing adaptive management practices were identified and promoted in the framework of a regional adaptation strategy. Most include practices aiming to increase topsoil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural land. In this work, the effectiveness of these practices (conservation agriculture, crop rotations, additions of organic matter, irrigation, and controlled grazing management) was assessed by means of monitoring SOC in a network of 159 agricultural fields across the region. These fields were selected across bioclimatic zones, where soil vulnerabilities and land-uses were previously assessed, to represent the most widespread conditions in the region. A sampling protocol designed to compare SOC stocks in plots with equal soil conditions within each zone, and with or without adaptive practices, allowed the determination of their effect size (measured as response ratios, RR). Exogenous organic matter addition was the most effective practice for SOC storage (RR 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.25-1.37]) across the region. Controlled grazing also resulted in net SOC gains (RR CI [1.13-1.42]) in temperate and semiarid grasslands. Conservation agriculture seemed to be more effective in the driest zone (RR CI [1.30-1.53]) than in the more humid ones (RR CI [0.98-1.21]). Irrigation also displayed a net positive effect (RR CI [1.17-1.34]), modulated by irrigated crop management, whereas crop rotations had an overall negative impact vs. monoculture (RR CI [0.84-0.96]), likely by their interaction with irrigation. These results confirm the variability in SOC responses to changes in management, and SOC as an indicator for assessing regional adaptation practices, although other biophysical, agronomic, and socio-economic factors also need to be accounted for.

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   影响  

摘要： 在全球气候变暖的背景下,阿拉善盟气候也产生了不同程度的变化,农业气象灾害以及病虫害频发,对农业生产造成较大影响。基于此,本文主要分析气候变化对阿拉善盟农业气象灾害和病虫害所产生的影响,并提出相应对策,以供参考。

关键词： 农业气象灾害   病虫害   气候变化   影响  

摘要： 我国是农业生产大国,农业生产与气象条件息息相关,气象因素在很大程度上决定了农业生产的产量和质量。近年来,随着全球变暖,气候变化显著,极端天气越来越频繁,气候灾害频发,对农业生产造成了较大损失。基于此,本文结合我国的降水和气温变化等特点,详细分析气候变化对我国农业气象灾害类型和病虫害发生频次、强度等方面的影响,并提出针对性的防御措施,以期为我国农业发展提供气象方面的保障,促进农业生产的可持续发展,为相关气象工作者提供参考和借鉴。

关键词： 农业全要素生产率   气候变化   农业科研投入  

摘要： 本文将气候变化与农业科研投入纳入理论分析框架,在分析气候变化对农业全要素生产率作用基础上,探讨了农业科研投入在气候变化影响农业全要素生产率方面发挥的潜在作用。实证结果表明:全年气温均值对农业全要素生产率有显著的正向作用,而全年降水总量、降水密度及高温、低温对农业全要素生产率有显著的负向影响。这些气候因素对农业全要素生产率的影响在不同区域间呈现出显著的差异。农业科研投入对农业全要素生产率有显著的正向作用,但在应对气候变化影响农业全要素生产率方面,农业科研投入的作用在区域间也同样存在显著的差异。

关键词： 农业   气候变化   脆弱性   适应性举措   可持续发展  

摘要： 气候变化已成为全球发展的重要议题,农业作为关系国计民生的重要产业,与气候变化息息相关。在气候变化面前,农业表现出较明显的脆弱性和依赖性,通过制定农业领域应对气候变化的适应性举措以提高农业适应能力,是促进农业可持续发展的重要途经。从农业生产环境和气候资源、农作物种植制度和结构布局、农业气候灾害和农作物产量、粮食贸易与安全等方面分析农业面对气候变化的脆弱性;根据农业面对气候变化的脆弱性提出生产性、技术性和政策性三大适应气候变化的举措;总结国际做法对我国农业适应气候变化发展的启示,以增强我国农业领域应对气候变化的适应能力和促进我国农业的可持续发展。