关键词： Cameroon   Agriculture   Climate change   Policies   Food security  

摘要： The Cameroonian agricultural sector, a critical part of the local ecosystem, is potentially vulnerable to climate change raising concerns about food security in the country's future. Adaptations policies may be able to mitigate some of this vulnerability. This article investigates and addresses the issue of selected adaptation options within the context of Cameroonian food production. A methodology is applied where transient diagnostics of two atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the NASA/Goddard Institute GISS and the British HadCM3, are coupled to a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) to simulate current and future (2020, 2080) crop yields for selected key crops (bambara nut, groundnut, maize, sorghum, and soybean) in eight agricultural regions of Cameroon. Our results show that for the future, substantial yield increases are estimated for bambara groundnut, soybean and groundnut, while little or no change or even decreases for maize and sorghum yields, varying according to the climate scenario and the agricultural region investigated. Taking the "no regrets" principle into consideration, we explore the advantages of specific adaptation strategies specifically for three crops viz. maize, sorghum and bambara groundnut, under GISS A2 and B2 marker scenarios only. Changing sowing dates may be ineffective in counteracting adverse climatic effects because of the narrow rainfall band that strictly determines the timing of farm operations in Cameroon. In contrast, the possibility of developing later maturing new cultivars proved to be extremely effective in offsetting adverse impacts, giving the highest increases in productivity under different scenario projections without management changes. For example, under climate change scenario GISS A2 2080, a 14.6% reduction in maize yield was converted to a 32.1% increase;a 39.9% decrease in sorghum yield was converted to a 17.6% increase, and for bambara groundnut (an under-researched and underutilised African l

关键词： Public Health  

摘要： What we eat is rapidly becoming an issue of global concern. With food shortages, the rise in chronic disease, and global warming, the impact of our dietary choices seems more relevant today than ever. Globally, a transition is taking place toward greater consumption of foods of animal origin, in lieu of plant-based diets. With this transition comes intensification of animal agriculture that in turn is associated with the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases, environmental degradation, and the epidemics of chronic disease and obesity. Health professionals should be aware of these trends and consider them as they promote healthier and more environmentally-sustainable diets.

关键词： Climate change   Multicriteria decision   EPIC   Agriculture sector   GCMs  

摘要： The agriculture of some areas considered marginal in the EU agricultural context is being questioned due to its low productivity and growing dependence on economic aid programs Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This study shows that climate change increases these areas marginalisation of since worsens crop growth conditions. The influence of climate change on the agricultural sector is analyzed using the Multicriteria Decision Paradigm with information provided by the Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) and a General Circulation Model (GCM) as inputs for multicriteria mathematical programming models. The results obtained show climate change effects on the crop portfolio. Further results suggest that climate change effects are not only economics and environmental, reducing the suitable area for crops, but also social as it causes loss of jobs in the agricultural sector. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化   农业灾害   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 根据对三门峡站1971～2000年近30年来尤其是近10年来的气候资料的统计分析,结合三门峡地区农业生产情况,总结出三门峡市的气候变化特点以及主要农业灾害的发生发展规律,分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响。

关键词： 行为经济学   农业决策   气候变化   适应   时滞   中国东北   behavioral economy   agricultural decision-making   climate change   adaptation   time lag   Northeast China  

摘要： 利用调查问卷和入户访谈的方法，以中国东北地区11个调查点为研究区，对554户农户进行调查研究，从行为经济学的视角出发，把农业实践者的粮食种植行为作为一种农业经济行为，分析20世纪80年代气候变暖以来，农业实践者在农业种植决策中的行为过程及其与传统经济学理性行为之间的差异。结果显示，在不确定条件下，农业决策行为符合行为经济学的一般规律，在认知偏差和思维定式等因素的影响下，会系统地偏离传统经济学理论，产生非理性行为，从而导致适应与变化之间存在时滞现象：①受启发式认知偏向的影响，农业实践者在作物种类选择、种植计划制定和粮食出售时间确定等方面均表现为非理性的特点；②受中国具体国情和农业生产固有特点的影响，出于“保障生活能够继续”的考虑，农业实践者判断“获得”和“损失”的参照点通常很低，对作物品种选择的行为更倾向于保守。

关键词： 岚县   气候要素   变化特征   农业   影响  

摘要： 气候作为人类赖以生存的自然环境的一个重要组成部分,它的任何变化都会对自然生态系统以及社会经济系统产生影响。气候的变化具有地域特点,不同地区气候变化趋势是不一样的,因此气候变化的影响也将是多尺度,多层次的,山西岚县作为黄土高原典型的小区域气候类型区之一,研究其在全球气候变化背景下的区域响应特征,对正确进行农作物品种布局和种植结构调整,促进农业持续发展起着重要的指导作用。 本文选用岚县气象局提供的1957-2007a的气象观测资料,运用线性回归法,距平法等数学分析方法以及GIS技术,从时间和空间的角度对岚县气候的变化做了全面系统的分析,主要研究气温、降水等因子的变化特征及其趋势;以及对岚县其它气候要素如日照时数、蒸发量、无霜期、积温等的变化特征亦进行了简单分析。同时对岚县的极端气候事件:暴雨、干旱、洪涝、沙尘暴、大风、冷冻害的变化分布进行分析。最后根据岚县气候变化情况,简单分析了当地气候变化对农业生产的影响。 结果表明:近50a来岚县年及四季平均气温均呈上升趋势,特别是近10a增暖程度更加明显。近10a年平均气温较多年平均气温升高了0.6℃,各季气温变化趋势与年的变化一致,但各季增温幅度差异较大,对于20世纪90年代的变暖贡献最大的是冬季。气候倾向率为0.37℃/10a,年平均最高气温和平均最低气温均有明显的增温趋势,但为曲线式上升。最低气温的增温趋势和变化幅度均低于最高气温,说明白天气温有较强的增温趋势,夜间有较弱的增温趋势。近20a来岚县各地域增温幅度中部高于四周地区,平川高于山地,增温幅度最大的乡镇出现在东村镇,毕家坡乡,梁家庄乡,增温超过1.3℃。 岚县近50a降水总趋势减少,20世纪90年代以后减少趋势显著。年降水气候倾向率为-30.1mm/10a,1988a以来,岚县降水转入偏少的气候背景,为有气象记录以来最严重的干旱阶段。夏季降水减少趋势显著,春、秋、冬三季降水气候倾向率数值较小,没有通过显著性检验。岚县各地域降水普遍减少,但程度不同,从几毫米到几十毫米不等。总的趋势是:由中部平川到山地逐渐减少,由南向北逐渐减少。≥0.1mm降水日数呈减少趋势,1992a以后降水日数急剧减少,平均年降水日数与年降水量的年际变化基本同步,相关系数达到0.61。 岚县日照时数呈逐渐减少趋势,阶段性变化显著。蒸发量呈下降趋势(但年蒸发量始终大于年降水量):岚县1990a以来积温增多、初霜拖后、终霜提前、无霜期增长。 岚县干旱灾害的总趋势是频次提高,强度逐渐增强,严重干旱的年份在20世纪90年代后出现。干旱频次逐渐提高,强度逐渐增强,伏旱、冬旱发生机率较大,洪涝出现次数明显少于干旱,致灾程度却比干旱严重,岚县洪涝灾害的总趋势是频次逐渐减少,强度逐渐减弱。 岚县冰雹主要出现在夏季的6-7月,20世纪90年代后降雹日数明显减少。岚县多大风天气,且年际变化大,20世纪60年代大风次数最多,90年代急剧减少。岚县各级冷冻害的发生呈减少趋势。 岚县年平均气温升高,无霜期增加,使该地的光热资源增加,对农作物的生产起到了有益的影响。但温度升高使作物发育速度加快,生育期普遍缩短,导致单产下降,同时温度升高加大了土壤水分的无效蒸发。导致农田的盐碱化,降低农业产量。水资源短缺对农业生产的威胁更加突出。气候变暖,尤其冬季增温幅度较大,发生病虫害的几率明显增大,并呈上升趋势。

关键词： 气候变化   区域层面   气候变动   旱作农业   策略  

摘要： 气候变化的影响与适应已经成为农业生产面临的现实而紧迫的问题。近50年来,东北地区增温1.5℃,幅度明显高于全国平均水平,给作物生产带来复杂的影响。东北是重要的国家商品粮生产基地,对国家粮食安全起着重大作用。探讨区域层面上适应气候变化的能力建设更具有针对性和现实性。

摘要： 一、气候资源的基本变化(一)光资源变化特征大庆市光合有效辐射量新气候值为2595.3MJ/m2,比前三十年降低了1.4%,并呈逐年递减趋势,以春、夏季减少最为明显.尤其是4月-9月农作物生长季光照处于低位周期,其中6月-8月递减率达到159小时/月.

关键词： Agricultural products   Ambient temperature   Climate change   CO2 Emission   Drying   Global warming  

摘要： Global warming is affecting the world and will continue to affect humans and the ecosystem in the future, in different regions of the earth in diverse ways: air temperature rise, modifications in the precipitation and snow/ice melting rates, sea level rise, changes in geographical distribution, and even extinction of some plants and animals. In particular, the predictions presented in the 2007 Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group 1 (available at ***) for the mean temperature increase in the present century is about (31)C/century for a middle range scenario of human behavior. Mitigation measures need to be taken urgently in all aspects of activities in order to reduce the future impact of the temperature augmentation. In particular, the drying process (as well as the pre- and post-drying operations) needs to be reanalyzed, in order to try to participate in this world effort to reduce the impact of anthropogenic activities that introduce in the atmosphere an excess of greenhouse gases (GHG). The energy savings, use of renewable energies, optimization of each part of the drying process, and use of control devices for detecting and minimizing the atmospheric injection of GHG are some of a large number of possible actions to be taken in this respect. A nice example of how a planetary problem can be solved with the global participation of scientists, professionals, authorities and general public is the stopping of the destruction of the ozone layer and its possible recuperation in the near future, as discussed in the WMO related report (Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, that can be obtained at http://***/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ozone2006/***).[10].

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   措施  

摘要： 概述气候变化时农业生产的影响,井提出了相应的对策.