关键词： climate change   agriculture   forestry   CO2   growing season   crop yield   frost damage   phenology   flowering   crop cycle   temperature   sowing date   grapevine   maize   wheat   water demand   irrigation   drought   carbon cycle   fire danger  

摘要： This article reviews major impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry.

关键词： Climate change   Economic impacts   Agriculture   Africa   AEZ  

摘要： This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the sixteen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and crops and regress total net revenue on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables with and without country fixed effects. Although African crop net revenue is very sensitive to climate change, combined livestock and crop net revenue is more climate resilient. With the hot and dry CCC climate scenario, average damage estimates reach 27% by 2100, but with the mild and wet PCM scenario, African farmers will benefit. The analysis of AEZs implies that the effects of climate change will be quite different across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid AEZs become more productive in the future.

关键词： China   Crop productivity   EPIC model   Impacts   Global warming  

摘要： Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce significant climate change over the next century and beyond, but the impacts on society remain highly uncertain. This work examines potential climate change impacts on the productivity of five major crops in eastern China: canola, corn, potato, rice, and winter wheat. In addition to determining domain-wide trends, the objective is to identify vulnerable and emergent regions under future climate conditions, defined as having a greater than 10% decrease and increase in productivity, respectively. Data from the ICTP RegCM3 regional climate model for baseline (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) periods under A2 scenario conditions are used as input for the EPIC agro-ecosystem simulation model in the domain [30 degrees N, 108 degrees E] to [42 degrees N, 123 degrees E]. Simulations are performed with and without the enhanced CO2-fertilization effect. Results indicate that aggregate potential productivity (i.e. if the crop is grown everywhere) increases 6.5% for rice, 8.3% for canola, 18.6% for corn, 22.9% for potato, and 24.9% for winter wheat, although with significant spatial variability for each crop. However, without the enhanced CO2-fertilization effect, potential productivity declines in all cases ranging from 2.5 to 12%. Interannual yield variability remains constant or declines in all cases except rice. Climate variables are found to be more significant drivers of simulated yield changes than changes in soil properties, except in the case of potato production in the northwest where the effects of wind erosion are more significant. Overall, in the future period corn and winter wheat benefit significantly in the North China Plain, rice remains dominant in the southeast and emerges in the northeast, potato and corn yields become viable in the northwest, and potato yields suffer in the southwest with no other crop emerging as a clear beneficiary from among those simulated in this study. (C) 20

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   分析  

摘要： 通过对1956～2005年朔州市气象局气温、降水等资料的统计分析,结果表明:朔州气候趋向变暖,其中20世纪90年代后期气温显著上升,冬季增温的贡献最大;降水呈减少的趋势;分析还表明由于气候的变化,导致极端天气气候事件趋多趋强,农业气象灾害发生频次增多,使农作物受灾、成灾面积均有不断增加的趋势,并由此给农业生产带来更大的损失。

关键词： 行为经济学   农业决策   气候变化   适应   时滞   中国东北  

摘要： 利用调查问卷和入户访谈的方法,以中国东北地区11个调查点为研究区,对554户农户进行调查研究,从行为经济学的视角出发,把农业实践者的粮食种植行为作为一种农业经济行为,分析20世纪80年代气候变暖以来,农业实践者在农业种植决策中的行为过程及其与传统经济学理性行为之间的差异。结果显示,在不确定条件下,农业决策行为符合行为经济学的一般规律,在认知偏差和思维定式等因素的影响下,会系统地偏离传统经济学理论,产生非理性行为,从而导致适应与变化之间存在时滞现象:①受启发式认知偏向的影响,农业实践者在作物种类选择、种植计划制定和粮食出售时间确定等方面均表现为非理性的特点;②受中国具体国情和农业生产固有特点的影响,出于"保障生活能够继续"的考虑,农业实践者判断"获得"和"损失"的参照点通常很低,对作物品种选择的行为更倾向于保守。

关键词： 生态环境   气候变化   利弊影响  

摘要： 小浪底水库蓄水后,库区降水量明显增加,平均增幅16.9%;库区和周边的温度均呈增高趋势;夏、秋季日照和蒸发量显著减少,轻雾日数明显增多,相对湿度呈略增大趋势。生态环境得到明显改善,有利于小麦稳产高产,有利于夏玉米丰产丰收,有利于林果业及冬凌草产业的发展,有利于大面积种植薄皮核桃,有利于烟叶生长。虽然也存在一些弊端,但总体上利远大于弊。

关键词： 气候变化   适应性   适应技术  

摘要： 中国地域差异性显著,各地农业生产条件相差很大,如何因地制宜的选择农业气候变化适应技术,趋利避害的利用气候变化适应性就尤为重要。根据国际上已有的研究成果和中国农业生产实践,分区域综述中国已有的和潜在的适应技术,并将其分为适应对策和措施、适应技术两类,最后提出研究中仍然存在的问题。

关键词： 气候变化   中国农业   影响  

摘要： 从种植制度、作物生产潜力、作物产量、气象灾害以及病虫害等方面阐述了气候变化对中国农业的影响,分析了应对气候变化的对策,并对未来研究作出展望。

关键词： 同江市   气候变化   农业生产   分析  

摘要： 依据黑龙江省同江市1967～2007年41年间的气象资料，分析了近20年和近10年来气候资源变化对农业生产的影响，并提出了相关的建议。

关键词： 气温   降水   变化   影响  

摘要： 根据临颍1960-2005年46 a的气象资料,分析了气温、降水的年代际、年际变化趋势及其对农业的影响。结果表明:随着全球气候变暖,临颍年平均气温变化趋势近似"V"字型,上世纪60年代偏高,以后逐渐下降,80年代处于谷点,是最冷期,90年代后显著升温进入暖期。各季变化趋势不尽一致,冬季呈逐年增高趋势,增温幅度为0.28℃/10 a;夏季呈逐年降低趋势,降低幅度为0.21℃/10 a;春、秋两季变化较复杂。从80年代到90年代,四季均明显升温。90年代后,临颍气温显著升高(冬季最明显),降水偏少,发生旱涝灾害频率和强度增大,1991-1997年以旱为主,1998年后降水偏多,但年际变化大,2001、2002年旱,2003、2004年涝。气温由冷向暖转型突变点出现在1994年,暖冬增大了各种病虫(卵)越冬存活率,加重了病虫危害程度,使冬小麦各生育期提前;降水减少及年际起伏加大了农业水资源供需矛盾和农业生产的不稳定性。