关键词： agriculture   climate change   climate change economics   environment   resource industries   trade policy  

摘要： There is a limited case for assisting trade-exposed emissions-intensive industries during a transitional period during which Australian resource industries but not all of their major competitors are subject to emissions constraints. There is no case for protecting Australian industry from all adjustment and loss of asset values during the transition. The valid case is analogous to anti-dumping assistance, being confined to the case where weaker emissions constraints elsewhere would force adjustments that would be reversed later. The case for assistance is limited by the effect of others' weaker emissions constraints on global resource prices.

摘要： Issue Title: Special Online Supplement: 50 Editorial Communications on Environmental Issues

摘要： The article offers information on the current environmental crises. It discusses the crop failure, dieing cattle and lack of potable water during the current environmental crises in Kenya. It discusses that the present reality of drought and global warming is needed to dealt with and countries should be convinced to take measures to prevent immense suffering and death. It also discusses how international cooperation can solve problems by conducting researches to prevent global warming.

关键词： Watershed modeling   Climate change   Agricultural pollution   Pesticides   California   SWAT  

摘要： The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO2, temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO2 concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by +/- 10% and +/- 20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO2 concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO2 concentration changes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 应对气候变化   农业   粮食综合生产能力   粮食损失   未来气候   粮食总产  

摘要： 近5年来,我国每年因自然灾害造成的粮食损失达1000亿斤左右,为粮食总产的10%。中国农科院的研究表明,如果不采取气候变化适应对策,到2030年全国粮食综合生产能力可能下降5%~10%。

关键词： agriculture   climate change   drought   Jamaica   local knowledge  

摘要： The purpose of this study is to reach a basic understanding of drought and climate change in southwestern Jamaica through an integration of local knowledge and perception of drought and its physical characteristics manifested in remotely sensed precipitation and vegetation data. Local knowledge and perception are investigated through a survey of sixty farmers in St. Elizabeth Parish and physical characteristics of drought are examined through statistical analysis of satellite precipitation and vegetation vigor time series. The survey indicates that most farmers are concerned about an increase in drought occurrence. Satellite estimates of rainfall and vegetation vigor for St. Elizabeth Parish support this perception and suggest that severe drought events are becoming more frequent. The satellite precipitation time series also suggest that the early growing season is becoming drier as compared to the primary growing season, especially since 1991. This recent divergence in growing season moisture conditions might add to farmers' observations that drought is becoming more prevalent. Consequently, Jamaican farmers perceptions of drought are not driven by magnitude and frequency of dry months alone but rather by the difference between growing seasons. Any development of drought adaption and mitigation plans for this area must not focus solely on drought;it must also compare moisture conditions between months and seasons to be effective.

关键词： Climate change   Adaptation   Action research   Rainfed agriculture   Livelihoods  

摘要： Climate change and rainfall variability poses serious risks to rainfed farming communities in the semi-dry agro-ecological zones of Zimbabwe. Its impacts include erratic and unpredictable seasonal rainfall, floods and cyclones. These impacts are more magnified in marginal rainfed agricultural areas characterized by low and erratic precipitation leading to low and unpredictable levels of crop production. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being advocated as a more sustainable response that enhances livelihoods. Through an examination of key debates from climate-science scholars, this paper examines the social research and action priorities that can be pursued in order to build the resilience of rural communities who rely on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods. The paper examines the nature of adaptation processes and subsequently identifies research themes, action priorities and approaches that can generate more robust responses to climate change at various levels. The study found out that despite the weaknesses identified in Zimbabwean water and agricultural policies, there are a number of specific actions that researchers, policy-makers and communities can take to enhance adaptation capacity. Systematic assessment of rural risk and vulnerability and participatory identification of possible solutions can enable the rural poor to get better access to options, assets and the services they require to improve their livelihoods. This also enables the identification and improvement of more adaptation options that the farmers themselves have already been trying out for many years. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 江汉平原   气候变化   农业影响  

摘要： 由于温室效应造成的全球气候变化已经深刻地影响到了人类的生产与生活,人们对气候变化的关注也越来越“热”。在这样的大背景之下,江汉平原的气候也在发生着显著的变化。近55年来,气温逐步升高,降水的时空分布也更加不均衡,各种极端气象灾害出现的频率明显增多,这些都给江汉平原的社会经济发展和农业生产环境造成了极大的影响。所以,分析江汉平原气温、降水等气候要素的变化,对于提高本地区中短期气候预测水平,以及据此指导调整本区农业生产活动具有重要的参考意义。 本文收集了江汉平原的荆州、枝江等11气象站台1952年～2007年的气象资料,从年代、年和季等不同角度出发,分析了其平均气温、平均最高气温、最低气温及降水量的趋势变化、极端气候事件出现的频率,从而对江汉平原55年来的气候变化做了深入的研究。 分析表明:相对于温室气体导致的全球变暖,江汉平原的升温显得滞后而较弱。近55年来,平均气温上升了0.2℃,其中1960年和1990年是两个高温期。55年里,除了7、8月出现了降温趋势外,其余月份均显示了上升趋势,尤以冬季月份温度增加最为显著。近20年冬季气温较前35年上升了2℃之多,而7、8月气温下降趋势也在明显加快。 从1952年以来,江汉平原年降水量呈不显著意义的微上升趋势。从季节降水变化来看,以夏季降水的显著集中增加和冬季降水的显著下降为主要特征。1990年成为55年来夏季和冬季降水最多,秋季降水最少的年份。以年代来划分,江汉平原在60、70年代为少雨期,80、90年代都为多雨期,其余年代基本正常。 另外气候变暖使极端降水的强度和频次均有所增加:暴雨频数的增加主要集中在夏季的6、7月份,1990年—2007年这两个月份的降水日数与20世纪50～80年代相比,平均减少了14天。1954、1980、1983、1991、1998、1999年都发生了洪涝灾害。同时,江汉平原的干旱频次也逐渐提高,强度逐渐增强,特别是伏旱、秋旱发生的频率明显增多,1959、1978、1992、1992年都遭遇了严重的干旱少雨、成为危害严重的大旱年。 农业是各产业部门中对气候变化反应最为敏感的部门。江汉平原的气温升高使得作物生长季开始的日期提前,终止日期延后,使潜在生长季有所延长。气候变暖,如果适应技术及时,会由于生长期延长而使得作物的产量得到提高。但也造成了主要作物的生长期普遍缩短,对物质积累和籽粒有负作用从而使产量下降。这就使得江汉平原农业生产的不稳定性增加,产量波动加剧。同时农业生产布局和结构也要相应地调整。还有农业生产条件的改变以及病虫害的增加,这些都使得江汉平原农业生产的成本和投资都将大幅度增加。 通过分析江汉平原各主要气候要素的长期变化,认识了江汉平原极端气象事件和气象灾害的变化趋势,阐述了气候变化给江汉平原农业生产带来的影响,是对江汉平原气候变化研究的一次尝试,具有一定的系统性和创新性;同时也对江汉平原地区积极适应气候变化,及时调整各种生产生活活动提供参考,特别是对该地区的农业生产具有直接的指导作用。

摘要： In this dissertation, I study the effects of climate change on agricultural total factor productivity and crop yields and their variability. In addition, an examination was conducted on the value of select climate change adaptation strategies in forestry. Across the study, the climate change scenarios analyzed were based on the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Climate change impacts on the returns to research investments were examined extending the work of Huffman and Evenson (2006), incorporating climatic effects. The conjecture is that the rate of return of agricultural research is falling due to altered resource allocations and unfavorable weather conditions, arising from the early onset of climate change. This work was done using a panel model of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for the forty-eight contiguous states over 1970–1999. Climatic variables such as temperature and amount and intensity of precipitation were added into the model. The main results are (1) climate change affects research productivity, varying by region; (2) this effect is generally negative; (3) additional investments are needed to achieve pre-climate change TFP rates of growth; and (4) the predicted investment increases are on the order of 18%. The second inquiry involved the impact of historical climatic conditions on the statistical distributions of crop yields through mean and variability. This was done statistically, using historical yields for several crops in the US, and climate variables, with annual observations from 1960 to 2007. The estimation shows that climate change is having an effect on the first two moments of the distribution, concluding that crop yield distributions are not stationary. The implication is that risk analysis must consider means and volatility measures that depend on future climatic conditions. The analysis shows that future mean yields will increase, but volatility will also be greater for the studied crops. The

关键词： Q24   Q27   Q54   Q56   O13   O15  

摘要： Even though much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. In this article the authors focus on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor and as a sector at the forefront of climate change mitigation efforts in developing countries. In so doing, they offer some important insights that may help shape future policies as well as ongoing research in this area.