关键词： 气候变化   诊断分析   农业防灾减灾  

摘要： 运用气候统计学方法,用距平、变率、气候均值等参数及tα-检验法,对朝阳地区主要气候要素降水、气温和日照的变化进行了稳定性诊断分析。并结合当地农业环境提出了防灾减灾对策。

关键词： 温度   降水   无霜期   有效积温   育种  

摘要： 此文通过对1957～2006年50 a间依安县气象因素的分析,论述了温度、降水、无霜期、有效积温几个要素的变化情况。通过对有效积温、无霜期的分析,为今后农业栽培中合理有效利用当地气象资源,引进更适合当地栽培的品种,及应用合理的栽培方法提供了理论依据。

关键词： 气候变化   农业和林业   减少温室气体排放  

摘要： 本文分析和研究了气候变化对德国农业和林业的正反两方面的影响,肯定了德国农业和林业对气候保护、减少温室气体排放的积极作用。阐述了德国为减少温室气体排放采取的相应措施,如改进传统农业,扩大现代农业,大力生产可再生长原料,促进可再生能源的利用。这些做法对我国发展现代农业,促进农业和林业领域节能减排具有积极的参考作用。

关键词： Agricultural data   Land use   Land function  

摘要： The paper examines drivers of change in agricultural land use in order to identify data requirements and assess data Suitability. In order to assess the fitness for purpose of available data, the paper Provides ail overview of the sources of data for agriculture and land use in the UK, in both a contemporary and historical context. It provides a brief assessment of the state of scientific knowledge on the analysis of land use change, combined with a consideration of some of the possible advances promised by the new land use science. (C) 2009 Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO. Published by Elsevier, Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Australia   Climate change   Grazing   Integrated property planning   Soil moisture planning  

摘要： In response to a drying climate, an integrated property planning tool was developed over three years to help landowners make better use of available rainfall. A sequence was identified which indicated how parts of each property are affected by soil moisture limitations. The sequence was combined with soil properties to indicate targeted strategies for each location aimed to improve soil moisture availability, biomass utilisation, and long-term viability of the farm or ranching enterprise. As a result of training of land owners and operators in use of this tool, 97% of participants indicated that they have begun or intend to make changes in land management;78% are intending to make three or more substantial changes;and 91% felt better prepared for the impacts of climate change. The key to the success of this technique is that it identifies critical sustainable production drivers in a simple plan format and offers tailored management options which can address more variable climate conditions. The integrated planning tool has application as a driver of climate change adaptation in agricultural regions where farm units contain substantial landscape variation and seasonal rainfall is frequently limiting to production.

关键词： comparative advantage   climate change   Australian broadacre agriculture  

摘要： According to the conventional wisdom, Australia enjoys a comparative advantage in broadacre agriculture, despite the fact that little empirical research supporting this proposition has been reported in the literature. This paper seeks to survey the theoretical and empirical models that may potentially be used to test the theory of comparative advantage as it relates to broadacre agriculture under climate change. The implications of the analysis are explored.

关键词： agriculture   data availability   error model   Cross-Sectional Studies   long run   climate change   farm rent   Ecological Impacts of Climate Change  

摘要： Based on a Ricardian analysis accounting for spatial autocorrelation and relying on recent climate change forecasts at a low spatial scale, this study assesses the impact of climate change on German agriculture. Given the limited availability of data (e.g., the unknown average soil quality at the district level), a spatial error model is used in order to obtain unbiased marginal effects. The Ricardian analysis is performed using data from the 1999 agricultural census along with data from the network of German weather observation stations. The cross-sectional analysis yields an increase of land rent along with both a rising mean temperature and a declining spring precipitation, except for in the Eastern part of the country. The subsequent simulation of local land rent changes under three different IPCC scenarios is done by entering into the estimated regression equations spatially processed data averages for the period between 2011 and 2040 from the regional climate model REMO. The resulting expected benefits arising from climate change are represented in maps containing the 439 German districts;the calculated overall rent increase corresponds to approximately 5-6% of net German agricultural income. However, in the long run, when temperature and precipitation changes will be more severe than those simulated for 2011-2040, income losses for German agriculture cannot be excluded.

关键词： 气候变化   农业影响   分析   2008年  

摘要： 概述了2008年夏季濮阳市气象要素的气候状况,并对季内出现的主要气候事件作了评述,最后着重分析了夏季气候对农业生产的影响。

关键词： 气候变化   特征分析   农业气象灾害   山东沾化  

摘要： 通过分析沾化县1971～2000年的气象资料,对沾化县近30年的气温与降水量变化特征及农业气象灾害发生规律进行了分析,为合理开发气候资源和防灾减灾提供依据。

关键词： 气候变化   粮食生产   农业研究   单位面积   干旱指数   能力   力度   节水  

摘要： 全球气候变暖作为一个不争的客观事实，不可避免地会对我国农业用水和粮食安全产生影响。分别将Palmer干旱指数（PDSI）、单位灌溉面积用水量（GIQ）、单位面积粮食产量（PHGO）作为气候变化、农业用水和粮食生产具体度量指标．分析了我国1949—2005年干旱指数、单位灌溉面积用水量、单位面积粮食产量年际变化特征，建立了单位灌溉面积用水量与干旱指数以及单位面积粮食产量与干旱指数的关系模型,