关键词： agriculture   climate change   climate change economics   environment   resource industries   trade policy  

摘要： There is a limited case for assisting trade-exposed emissions-intensive industries during a transitional period during which Australian resource industries but not all of their major competitors are subject to emissions constraints. There is no case for protecting Australian industry from all adjustment and loss of asset values during the transition. The valid case is analogous to anti-dumping assistance, being confined to the case where weaker emissions constraints elsewhere would force adjustments that would be reversed later. The case for assistance is limited by the effect of others' weaker emissions constraints on global resource prices.

关键词： Watershed modeling   Climate change   Agricultural pollution   Pesticides   California   SWAT  

摘要： The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO2, temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO2 concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by +/- 10% and +/- 20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO2 concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO2 concentration changes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 应对气候变化   农业   粮食综合生产能力   粮食损失   未来气候   粮食总产  

摘要： 近5年来,我国每年因自然灾害造成的粮食损失达1000亿斤左右,为粮食总产的10%。中国农科院的研究表明,如果不采取气候变化适应对策,到2030年全国粮食综合生产能力可能下降5%~10%。

关键词： agriculture   climate change   drought   Jamaica   local knowledge  

摘要： The purpose of this study is to reach a basic understanding of drought and climate change in southwestern Jamaica through an integration of local knowledge and perception of drought and its physical characteristics manifested in remotely sensed precipitation and vegetation data. Local knowledge and perception are investigated through a survey of sixty farmers in St. Elizabeth Parish and physical characteristics of drought are examined through statistical analysis of satellite precipitation and vegetation vigor time series. The survey indicates that most farmers are concerned about an increase in drought occurrence. Satellite estimates of rainfall and vegetation vigor for St. Elizabeth Parish support this perception and suggest that severe drought events are becoming more frequent. The satellite precipitation time series also suggest that the early growing season is becoming drier as compared to the primary growing season, especially since 1991. This recent divergence in growing season moisture conditions might add to farmers' observations that drought is becoming more prevalent. Consequently, Jamaican farmers perceptions of drought are not driven by magnitude and frequency of dry months alone but rather by the difference between growing seasons. Any development of drought adaption and mitigation plans for this area must not focus solely on drought;it must also compare moisture conditions between months and seasons to be effective.

关键词： Climate change   Adaptation   Action research   Rainfed agriculture   Livelihoods  

摘要： Climate change and rainfall variability poses serious risks to rainfed farming communities in the semi-dry agro-ecological zones of Zimbabwe. Its impacts include erratic and unpredictable seasonal rainfall, floods and cyclones. These impacts are more magnified in marginal rainfed agricultural areas characterized by low and erratic precipitation leading to low and unpredictable levels of crop production. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being advocated as a more sustainable response that enhances livelihoods. Through an examination of key debates from climate-science scholars, this paper examines the social research and action priorities that can be pursued in order to build the resilience of rural communities who rely on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods. The paper examines the nature of adaptation processes and subsequently identifies research themes, action priorities and approaches that can generate more robust responses to climate change at various levels. The study found out that despite the weaknesses identified in Zimbabwean water and agricultural policies, there are a number of specific actions that researchers, policy-makers and communities can take to enhance adaptation capacity. Systematic assessment of rural risk and vulnerability and participatory identification of possible solutions can enable the rural poor to get better access to options, assets and the services they require to improve their livelihoods. This also enables the identification and improvement of more adaptation options that the farmers themselves have already been trying out for many years. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 江汉平原   气候变化   农业影响  

摘要： 由于温室效应造成的全球气候变化已经深刻地影响到了人类的生产与生活,人们对气候变化的关注也越来越“热”。在这样的大背景之下,江汉平原的气候也在发生着显著的变化。近55年来,气温逐步升高,降水的时空分布也更加不均衡,各种极端气象灾害出现的频率明显增多,这些都给江汉平原的社会经济发展和农业生产环境造成了极大的影响。所以,分析江汉平原气温、降水等气候要素的变化,对于提高本地区中短期气候预测水平,以及据此指导调整本区农业生产活动具有重要的参考意义。 本文收集了江汉平原的荆州、枝江等11气象站台1952年～2007年的气象资料,从年代、年和季等不同角度出发,分析了其平均气温、平均最高气温、最低气温及降水量的趋势变化、极端气候事件出现的频率,从而对江汉平原55年来的气候变化做了深入的研究。 分析表明:相对于温室气体导致的全球变暖,江汉平原的升温显得滞后而较弱。近55年来,平均气温上升了0.2℃,其中1960年和1990年是两个高温期。55年里,除了7、8月出现了降温趋势外,其余月份均显示了上升趋势,尤以冬季月份温度增加最为显著。近20年冬季气温较前35年上升了2℃之多,而7、8月气温下降趋势也在明显加快。 从1952年以来,江汉平原年降水量呈不显著意义的微上升趋势。从季节降水变化来看,以夏季降水的显著集中增加和冬季降水的显著下降为主要特征。1990年成为55年来夏季和冬季降水最多,秋季降水最少的年份。以年代来划分,江汉平原在60、70年代为少雨期,80、90年代都为多雨期,其余年代基本正常。 另外气候变暖使极端降水的强度和频次均有所增加:暴雨频数的增加主要集中在夏季的6、7月份,1990年—2007年这两个月份的降水日数与20世纪50～80年代相比,平均减少了14天。1954、1980、1983、1991、1998、1999年都发生了洪涝灾害。同时,江汉平原的干旱频次也逐渐提高,强度逐渐增强,特别是伏旱、秋旱发生的频率明显增多,1959、1978、1992、1992年都遭遇了严重的干旱少雨、成为危害严重的大旱年。 农业是各产业部门中对气候变化反应最为敏感的部门。江汉平原的气温升高使得作物生长季开始的日期提前,终止日期延后,使潜在生长季有所延长。气候变暖,如果适应技术及时,会由于生长期延长而使得作物的产量得到提高。但也造成了主要作物的生长期普遍缩短,对物质积累和籽粒有负作用从而使产量下降。这就使得江汉平原农业生产的不稳定性增加,产量波动加剧。同时农业生产布局和结构也要相应地调整。还有农业生产条件的改变以及病虫害的增加,这些都使得江汉平原农业生产的成本和投资都将大幅度增加。 通过分析江汉平原各主要气候要素的长期变化,认识了江汉平原极端气象事件和气象灾害的变化趋势,阐述了气候变化给江汉平原农业生产带来的影响,是对江汉平原气候变化研究的一次尝试,具有一定的系统性和创新性;同时也对江汉平原地区积极适应气候变化,及时调整各种生产生活活动提供参考,特别是对该地区的农业生产具有直接的指导作用。

摘要： In this dissertation, I study the effects of climate change on agricultural total factor productivity and crop yields and their variability. In addition, an examination was conducted on the value of select climate change adaptation strategies in forestry. Across the study, the climate change scenarios analyzed were based on the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Climate change impacts on the returns to research investments were examined extending the work of Huffman and Evenson (2006), incorporating climatic effects. The conjecture is that the rate of return of agricultural research is falling due to altered resource allocations and unfavorable weather conditions, arising from the early onset of climate change. This work was done using a panel model of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for the forty-eight contiguous states over 1970–1999. Climatic variables such as temperature and amount and intensity of precipitation were added into the model. The main results are (1) climate change affects research productivity, varying by region; (2) this effect is generally negative; (3) additional investments are needed to achieve pre-climate change TFP rates of growth; and (4) the predicted investment increases are on the order of 18%. The second inquiry involved the impact of historical climatic conditions on the statistical distributions of crop yields through mean and variability. This was done statistically, using historical yields for several crops in the US, and climate variables, with annual observations from 1960 to 2007. The estimation shows that climate change is having an effect on the first two moments of the distribution, concluding that crop yield distributions are not stationary. The implication is that risk analysis must consider means and volatility measures that depend on future climatic conditions. The analysis shows that future mean yields will increase, but volatility will also be greater for the studied crops. The

关键词： Q24   Q27   Q54   Q56   O13   O15  

摘要： Even though much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. In this article the authors focus on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor and as a sector at the forefront of climate change mitigation efforts in developing countries. In so doing, they offer some important insights that may help shape future policies as well as ongoing research in this area.

关键词： 农业   土地   适应气候变化   库克   国际农业发展基金会  

摘要： 国际农业发展基金会技术顾问部主任罗德尼·库克近日在接受新华社记者专访时说,农业和土地使用所产生的二氧化碳排放常常被人们忽视,主要原因是它们对土地造成的影响难以衡量和监测。事实上,农业和土地使用对气候变化异常敏感。比如,如果不采取有效措施来适应气候变化,在半干旱土地上经营的农业活动就会受到严重影响,粮食安全将可能面临严峻挑战。

关键词： 甘肃中东部旱作农业区   气候变化   农业生产   生育期  

摘要： 农业生产与气候变化关系密切,农作物生长发育的好坏和产量的高低,除了决定于农作物本身的生物学特性和人们的经营措施外,很大程度上受到光、热、水、气等气候要素的支配。我国西北旱作农业区完全依赖自然降水,是气候变化的敏感区和农业生产脆弱区。因此掌握西北旱作农业区气候变化的规律,充分认识该地区农业生产对气候变化的响应,对该地区农业经济可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。 基于此,本文选取甘肃中东部定西、平凉、庆阳旱作农业区为研究对象,利用小波分析、kriging空间插值、曼-肯德尔(Mann-Kendall)趋势分析及突变分析等方法,分析了研究区内农业气候资源(包括光、热、水、风资源)的现状、变化趋势、空间分布以及各气候资源配合协调程度;在此基础上,结合农业观测资料和农业统计相关资料,详细分析了研究区农作物生长发育、产量和农业种植结构的变化特征及其对气候变化的响应规律。 经研究初步得出以下结论:(1)近48年研究区热量资源普遍增加,气温升幅最高气温>最低气温>平均气温。≥0℃积温、≥5℃积温和≥10℃积温均显著增加,负积温显著减少。稳定通过0℃、5℃和10℃的初日均提前,终日推迟,持续日数均显著增加。研究区热量资源普遍存在25a、11a(12～14a)、6a和2a的周期,均于90年代发生突变。(2)年平均降水量减少14.39mm/10a,蒸发量增加12.43mm/10a,均未通过显著性检验。年平均降水量普遍存在18a、4a、7a和2a的周期,蒸发量大致存在14a(15a)、6a、11a和2a的周期。经检验,年平均降水量没有明显突变点,年平均蒸发量1993年开始突然增加。(3)年平均日照时数每10年减少9.68h,减少趋势不显著;年平均日照时数大致存在25a(24a)、11a(12a)、6a(5a)、和2a的周期,经检验没有发生明显突变。(4)年平均风速减小趋势极显著,每10年减小0.1m/s;年平均风速存在18a、24a、和6a的周期;经检验年平均风速突变点为1986年。(5)2000年后与1980s相比,观测区冬小麦播种期、出苗期、停止生长期各推迟3～9d,2～9d和2～11d;越冬以后各发育期均提前,拔节期、抽穗期、乳熟期、成熟期分别提前5～11d、6～14d、5～15d和3～14d;冬小麦生殖生长阶段提早,全生育期天数缩短4～23d,全生育期天数的变化主要是由越冬期天数缩短引起的。(6)2000年后与1980s相比,观测区春小麦乳熟期推迟,其他各生育期均提前,播种期、出苗期、拔节期、抽穗期、成熟期分别提前1～2d、2～3d、2～7d、2～4d和6～7d,春小麦全生育期天数缩短3～12d。(7)近17年来观测区冬小麦的实际产量呈减少趋势,主要是由返青期～抽穗期内的干旱缺水及此时的高温二者协同作用导致的;观测区春小麦实际产量也呈减少趋势,产量的减少主要是由生长季节降水量减少引起的。(6)气候变暖使研究区冬小麦种植界限向西北扩展,理论上研究区均已可以种植冬小麦,但冬小麦北移界限只代表平均状况,一个地区种植制度和种植方式不仅取决于气候条件,还要根据当地具体情况科学决断。