关键词： 农业综合开发   气候变化   应用   设计   全球气候变暖   全球环境基金   农业生产   参与意识  

摘要： 目前，全球气候变暖已是不争的事实。采取适应气候变化的措施和开展相应的行动，以减少和消除气候变化对农业生产带来的不利影响，提高广大农民参与意识并形成自觉行动，增强决策者和管理者适应气候变化的能力，成为农业综合开发面临的一项新的长期任务。国家农发办通过积极争取世界银行和全球环境基金的支持，

关键词： 气候分析   气候变化   农业生产对策   抚顺市  

摘要： 利用抚顺地区1961～2008年气象资料进行统计分析,归纳出近48年抚顺市的气候变化特点:温度呈上升趋势,降水呈减少趋势,日照略有减少;对农业生产和农作物生长有利弊两方面的影响,应采取有效措施,利用有效积温。

关键词： 气候变化   气温   降水   环塔里木盆地  

摘要： 【目的】分析环塔里木盆地农业气候因子的变化特征与趋势。【方法】利用1951-2005年的逐月气候资料分析。【结果】在全球变暖的大气候背景下,过去55 a中环塔里木盆地年平均气温显著升高,增温速率在0.22℃/10 a以上。各季节及生长季平均气温都有所增加,冬季最大,达到0.5℃/10 a。冬季和秋季最高温增加均较明显。冬季、年平均和春季平均最低气温增加显著。生长季的平均、最高、最低气温增温速率都不明显。对降水量的分析结果表明,春季降水量、年降水量和生长季平均降水量有明显增加趋势。【结论】通过分析该地区农业气候变化特征,以期为有效管理区域农业、水资源,改善生态系统和实现可持续发展提供科学依据。

关键词： 齐齐哈尔   气候变化   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 根据齐齐哈尔市近50年逐月气温和降水量数据,采用Mann-Kendall、累积滤波器和距平分析方法,对不同时间尺度的气温和降水量变化特征进行分析。结果表明:年平均气温总体呈现上升趋势,特别是20世纪90年代以来,气温升高的速度和幅度明显加快。降水量年际和年内变化存在较大的差异,年降水量总体上呈下降趋势。而春季和冬季降水量呈上升趋势,夏、秋两季呈下降趋势。气候变化对齐齐哈尔市农业生产产生了多方面的影响,农业气象灾害增加,作物病虫害发生和影响程度加重,农业生产成本增加,使农业的不稳定性增强,气候变化对农业生产是弊大于利。

关键词： 中国东北地区   气候变化   农业  

摘要： 在回顾中国学者关于东北地区气候变化及对农业影响研究成果基础上,系统概括分析了近50年东北地区农业气候资源和灾害的变化特征及气候变化对农业的影响特征。近50年东北地区升温明显,生长季热量资源增加;农业可用水资源和光能资源呈不同程度减少趋势,且时空分布不均。霜冻害、低温冷害、寒潮、洪涝、冰雹等农业气象灾害减少,旱灾增加。东北地区气候变化对农业影响总体有利,表现为作物适宜生育期延长,发育进程加快,全生育期缩短;积温增加且积温带北移东扩明显,主栽作物适宜种植区域扩大;作物品种由中晚熟替换早中熟;作物种植格局的变化为玉米、水稻、马铃薯等喜温作物种植面积扩大,春小麦种植面积减小。在水分为非限制因子的农区,作物气候生产潜力和产量为增加趋势。气候变化对农业影响的研究存在较大的不确定性,有必要针对农业气候变化及其对农业影响等开展系统性研究。

关键词： Carbon dioxide   Climate change   Agriculture   Predictions   Water supply  

摘要： An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with larger economic value for the state (apples, potatoes, and wheat). To evaluate crop performance, a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) was utilized using historical and future climate sequences. Crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops), nutrients, and control of weeds, pests and diseases. Results project that the impact of climate change on eastern Washington agriculture will be generally mild in the short term (i.e., next two decades), but increasingly detrimental with time (potential yield losses reaching 25% for some crops by the end of the century). However, CO2 elevation is expected to provide significant mitigation, and in fact result in yield gains for some crops. The combination of increased CO2 and adaptive management may result in yield benefits for all crops. One limitation of the study is that water supply was assumed sufficient for irrigated crops, but other studies suggest that it may decrease in many locations due to climate change.

关键词： Reservoir   Adaptations   Water management   Water rights   Climate change   River discharge   River basins   Archives   Agricultural runoff   Agriculture   River flow   Climate models   Rainfall runoff   Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change   Snow cover   Reservoirs   Historical account   Rainfall   Economics   Emissions   Snowmelt   agriculture   water rights   Water Rights   Water Management   Hydrologic Models   Water Shortage   Runoff   Freshwater  

摘要： The Yakima River Reservoir system supplies water to similar to 180,000 irrigated hectares through the operation of five reservoirs with cumulative storage of similar to 30% mean annual river flow. Runoff is derived mostly from winter precipitation in the Cascade Mountains, much of which is stored as snowpack. Climate change is expected to result in earlier snowmelt runoff and reduced summer flows. Effects of these changes on irrigated agriculture were simulated using a reservoir system model coupled to a hydrological model driven by downscaled scenarios from 20 climate models archived by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. We find earlier snowmelt results in increased water delivery curtailments. Historically, the basin experienced substantial water shortages in 14% of years. Without adaptations, for IPCC A1B global emission scenarios, water shortages increase to 27% (13% to 49% range) in the 2020s, to 33% in the 2040s, and 68% in the 2080s. For IPCC B1 emissions scenarios, shortages occur in 24% (7% to 54%) of years in the 2020s, 31% in the 2040s and 43% in the 2080s. Historically unprecedented conditions where senior water rights holders suffer shortfalls occur with increasing frequency in both A1B and B1 scenarios. Economic losses include expected annual production declines of 5%-16%, with greater probabilities of operating losses for junior water rights holders.

摘要： The article reviews the book 'Climate Change and Agriculture: An Economic Analysis of Global Impacts, Adaptation and Distributional Effects,' by Robert Mendelsohn and Ariel Dinar.

关键词： Crop modelling   CropSyst   Monte Carlo approach   Onset of the rainy season   Planting date   Climate change   Attainable crop yield  

摘要： Rainfed farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa are suffering from low productivity. Prolonged dry spells and droughts often lead to significant crop losses, a situation that is expected to be exacerbated by climate change. In this study, the impact of climate change on attainable yields of maize and groundnut, as major alimentary crops in sub-Saharan Africa, is evaluated at five stations in Cameroon under rainfed conditions. It is focussed on the contribution of future climate change in terms of the direct fertilisation effect of the expected CO2 alteration and the indirect effects of the expected temperature and precipitation change. As improved agricultural management practices in rainfed systems are crucial to increase agricultural productivity, the impact of the planting date is analysed in detail. For this purpose, a fuzzy logic-based algorithm is developed to estimate the agriculturally relevant onset of the rainy season (ORS) and, thus, the optimal planting date. This algorithm is then connected to the physically based crop model CropSyst, hereinafter referred to as optimal planting date following crop modelling system. A Monte Carlo approach is used to optimise the ORS algorithm in terms of maximising the mean annual crop yields (1979-2003). The optimal planting date following crop modelling system is applied to past and future periods, mainly for two reasons: (i) to derive optimal fuzzy rules and increase mean attainable crop yields;and (ii) to reliably estimate the impact of climate change to crop productivity with ('optimal planting date scenario') and without planting date adaptations ('traditional planting date scenario'). It is shown that the fuzzy rules derived for assessing the optimal planting dates may allow for significantly increased crop yields compared to the existing planting rules in Cameroon under current climatic conditions, especially for the drier northern regions. A change in the climatic conditions due to global warming will reduce the g

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   新疆阿图什市  

摘要： 利用阿图什市气象站1960-2006年气温和降水观测资料,以回归分析、趋势线分析方法分析了阿图什市近47 a来气温和降水的年际和季节变化特征及其对农业生产的影响。分析结果显示：（1）近47 a来阿图什市年均气温总体呈增加趋势,年均气温线性倾向率为0.13℃/10a。从20世纪60年代至70年代,气温在平均值附近波动且略有降低。自80年代以来波动较大,并明显升高,气温波动基本上与我国西北地区气温变化趋势一致。年内气温变化存在季节差异,冬、秋和春三个季节气温均呈上升趋势,夏季的气温略呈下降趋势,其中,冬、秋两季对全年平均气温增加贡献较大。（2）近47 a来年降水量总体呈增长趋势,年均降水量线性倾向率约为9.38 mm/10a,与我国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转变的趋势基本一致。20世纪60年代初至70年代末期年降水在多年平均值附近波动。自80年代以来波动较大,且变干、变湿趋势较显著。年内降水量变化有明显的季节差异,四季均呈增长趋势,增长幅度从大到小依次夏季、春季、秋季和冬季,其中,夏、春两季对全年降水量增长贡献较大,秋、冬两季贡献较小。（3）阿图什市气候变暖对越冬作物的冬前生长发育及喜热作物的全生育期生长发育较为有利,但气候变暖会引起土壤干旱化和农作物病虫害增加,将对多数农作物生长发育不利。