摘要： Significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be achieved whilst at the same time developing the production potential of EU agriculture and forestry through increased productivity. Therefore, research and investment in innovation and new technologies are needed. Agriculture and forestry are uniquely placed in being able to reduce GHG emissions whilst adapting their own businesses and facilitating society's adaptation to climate change. Farmers in the EU-27 have already contributed to a significant decrease in GHG emissions of 20 per cent between 1990 and 2006. The implementation of the EU's climate and energy package must not jeopardise the economic viability and competitiveness nor the social component of agricultural and forestry activities. Beyond their productive role, environmental benefits, landscape preservation and employment opportunities are delivered by both sectors. However, several factors hamper their contribution to combating climate change: and there is a risk that measures put in place to reduce GHG emissions will result in the delocalisation of agricultural production outside the EU. There is limited capacity of autonomous farm level adaptation. It is vital, therefore, that we have a strong Common Agricultural Policy to support farmers in improving their resilience to climatic variability and in contributing to climate change mitigation, which will deliver cost-saving benefits for society as a whole.

关键词： Ellenberg values   Ecological envelope   Broader habitat   Regional climate model   Upper-Austria  

摘要： Climate change amongst others is considered as a major threat to biodiversity. The aim of the present study was to assess the potential impact and regional variation of modelled climate change on selected Austrian habitats and agricultural landscapes for 20 landscape samples in the region of Upper-Austria. In order to avoid biases caused by the lack of data of species and their ecological requirements, we used a concept that addresses higher aggregated forms of biodiversity, the broader habitats. We defined their ecological envelope by applying Ellenberg's temperature and water availability values based on vegetation releves and related these with the output of a regional climate model for the time periods 1981-1990 and 2041-2050. Further we defined a sensitivity index for assessing possible responses of broader habitats to future climatic conditions. Regression analysis revealed quite strong relationships for temperature values (R-2=0.72, p-value < 0.01) but not for water availability. Differences in R-2 were given regarding the individual broader habitats. Water availability had higher sensitivity indices than temperature. Forests, fallow land, field margins and aquatic habitats had the best regression models, the highest sensitivity and also showed rather high naturalness values. It was concluded that more natural habitats will suffer more because of climate change. Species loss and turnover can only be mitigated by improving migration possibilities. Consequences for nature conservation planning are discussed and need to be further explored. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： CLIMATE change mitigation   ADAPTATION (Biology)   IRRIGATION farming   DROUGHTS   AGRICULTURAL water-supply   WATER use  

摘要： Le changement climatique risque d'avoir des repercussions considerables sur l'agriculture irriguee. Les phenomenes climatiques extremes, tels que les secheresses, risquent de devenir plus frequents. Ces phenomenes sont mis en evidence dans les projections medianes du changement climatique etablies pour le bassin de Murray-Darling, en Australie. Pour comprendre les repercussions du changement climatique sur le rendement des cultures irriguees, il faut disposer d'une representation explicite des changements spatiaux qui touchent les stocks naturels (c.-a-d. l'approvisionnement en eau) et de leur variabilite temporelle (c.-a-d. les etats de la nature de la frequence de la secheresse) et assurer une gestion active des stocks de capital grace a des strategies d'attenuation et d'adaptation selon l'etat de la nature. Une variation de la frequence des secheresses entrainera une modification de l'allocation des terres et de l'eau entre les activites de production. Dans le present article, nous avons utilise un modele de simulation etats-contingences pour analyser les repercussions des strategies d'attenuation du changement climatique et d'adaptation a ce changement. En l'absence de strategies d'attenuation, le changement climatique aura des repercussions defavorables sur l'agriculture irriguee dans le Bassin. Toutefois, des strategies d'attenuation combinees a des strategies d'adaptation comprenant des changements dans l'utilisation des terres et de l'eau permettront de maintenir l'utilisation de l'eau a des fins agricoles et les debits environnementaux.

摘要： Climate change will have significant impacts on agriculture. Farmers and the agri-food supply chain will have to adapt, while at the same time providing food for a growing population. Agriculture can be expected to contribute to meeting targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, although the sector did not figure significantly at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009. The ongoing or expected international climate change, food security and trade commitments present both challenges and opportunities for the agri-food sector, as agriculture is one of the few sectors that can contribute to both mitigation and sequestration of carbon emissions. Accounting for agriculture's carbon footprint is a key issue given the possibility of including agriculture in greenhouse gas reduction commitments. However, the range and variability of estimates, and the complexity and uncertainty of accounting for indirect land use change remain to be resolved. Policies will play a role in enhancing the ability of agriculture to adapt to climate change, in reducing greenhouse gases, while contributing to other environmental goals. There is an urgent need to consider whether an international agreement would be the channel to enable appropriate national policy actions to be taken in the context of a global framework to reduce emissions from agriculture in the most efficient and least-cost manner.

关键词： Ranching -- Environmental aspects   Sedimentation & deposition   Water quality   Climate change   Nonpoint source pollution laws   Water quality management   Soil erosion  

摘要： In the Amazonian agricultural frontier, pasture for cattle ranching is an important and potentially hazardous form of land use because of sediment erosion as pastures degrade. This relationship between ranching, sediment load, and water quality is likely to further exacerbate environmental impacts, particularly in the context of climate change. We examine the role that river basin councils (RBCs) - a water governance option of Brazil's 1997 National Water Act - might play in managing this nonpoint-source pollution in the Amazonian state of Rondonia. We implement a simple coupled rancher-water system model to compare two potential governance options: a bulk water cleanup charge (BWC) implemented by RBCs and a land-use fine (LUF) for failing to maintain riparian buffers. We find no significant advantage of BWC over LUF in reducing sediment loading while keeping ranching profitable, under a changing climate. We also fail to find in Rondonia the important stake in water issues that has driven water reform elsewhere in Brazil. Moreover, the comparative success of reforestation programs suggests these programs may, in fact have the potential to manage nonpoint-source agricultural pollution in the region.

关键词： 未来气候变化   农业热量资源   影响   适应对策  

摘要： 根据区域气候模式PRECIS输出的未来A2气候情景(2011—2050年)以及基准气候时段(1961—1990年)的逐日资料,对2011—2050年我国农业热量资源的变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明:与1961—1990年相比,未来A2气候情景下,2011—2050年我国大部分地区的平均无霜期日数延长趋势明显,主要表现为终霜冻日的提前和初霜冻日的推迟;各地日均气温稳定通过0℃的持续日数也明显延长,大部分地区延长了1～14d,其中2041—2050年,青藏地区大部、长江中下游地区大部、甘新地区西部和西南地区北部均可延长49d;我国大部分地区≥0℃积温均呈增加趋势.为适应未来农业热量资源的变化,应进一步调整农业种植制度、优化农业生产布局和发展生物技术等,以实现我国农业的可持续发展.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 气候是影响我国农业生产的一个重要环境因素,他对农作物生产、产量和质量有着直接影响。现如今,全球气候的剧烈变化,温室效应愈来愈明显,同时随着我国经济建设的加快,国内气候也随之呈现出一些新特点,例如夏天不热、冬天不冷、南方干旱、北方高温暴雨等,都给我国的农业生产带来了非常大的影响,最显著的表现就是农作物的大量减产甚至绝产。本文将分析气候变化的新现象,对如何调整农作物生产,提出自己的对策,做到趋利避害。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   防御对策   可持续发展  

摘要： 基于IPCC第四次评估报告和气象学家对我国气候变化的研究成果,从温度、降水、海平面上升等几方面分析了气候变化对我国农业生产的影响,提出了应对气候变化的具体措施,并根据气候变化趋势,制定出了防御对策,增强农业对气候变化的应对能力,趋利避害,实现可持续发展。