关键词： 气候变化   河南省   水资源   农业   对策  

摘要： 全球气候变暖对自然生态和人类生存环境产生显著影响,其对水资源和农业的影响最为严重。本文在回顾了河南省气候变化特点的基础上,分析了气候变化对该省水资源状况的影响和变化趋势,探讨了水资源变化对农业发展的影响,并进一步针对该省粮食核心区应对气候变化的水资源可持续利用提出了农业对策。

关键词： 气候变化   应对措施  

摘要： 概述安徽的农业温室气体排放源、安徽气候变化的状况及对农业的影响,提出了应对气候变化的农业措施以及应对气候变化的保障措施。

关键词： Climate change   Pakistan   panel model   econometric analysis   adaptation  

摘要： Climate Change in Pakistan among others manifests itself in temperature increases, rainfall reduction in the arid plains and increases in the monsoon areas and last but not least, accelerated glacial melt. All these and other developments call for a deeper insight into the effects Recent Climate Change - or Weather Change has had on Pakistan in the course of the last 17 years. In this context the threats to food security remain one core issue to be investigated based on productivity analysis. This article studies how climate change affects the agricultural productivity in Pakistan's four provinces Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and the N.W.F.P., measured as weighted food crop yields per hectare, for the food crops wheat, rice and maize. By considering the RABI (Nov-Apr) growing season and including a measure for drought to capture the occurrence of extreme events, exacerbated through climate change, the proposed hypothesis is that changing climatic variables have reduced and are reducing the agricultural productivity and thus posing a threat to long term food security. To depict the effect of climate change, several control variables are introduced in a panel framework for intertemporal analysis. As a result, we should expect lower levels of productivity in the arid zones with greater climatic pressure and adverse effects on food security through lower agricultural yields.

关键词： Climate change   Trade policy   Mitigation   Adaptation   Carbon leakage   Carbon pricing  

摘要： Agricultural productivity in both developing and developed countries will have to improve to achieve substantial increases in food production by 2050 while land and water resources become less abundant and the effects of climate change introduce much uncertainty. Already less resilient production areas will suffer the most, as temperatures will rise further in tropical and semi-tropical latitudes and water-scarce regions will face even drier conditions. International trade plays an important role in compensating, albeit partially, for regional changes in productivity that are induced by climate change. While a well-functioning international trade system can support the adaptation to climate change-related challenges, trade policies as such are imperfect instruments to induce less emissions globally. A well-functioning international trading system can support the adaptation to climate change-related challenges. Hence welfare gains from reforms to trade policies may be greater than normally measured if they also reduce GHG emissions globally. (C) 2010 Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： climate change   agricultural land   global assessment  

摘要： Climate change can affect both crop yield and the land area suitable for agriculture. This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of the impact of climate change on worldwide agricultural land availability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections and ambiguity with regard to land classification. Uncertainty in general circulation model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from thirteen GCMs and two representative emission scenarios (A1B and B1 employ CO2-equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations of 850 and 600 ppmv, respectively;B1 represents a greener economy). Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e. soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that the total global arable land area is likely to decrease by 0.8-1.7% under scenario A1B and increase by 2.0-4.4% under scenario B1. Regions characterized by relatively high latitudes such as Russia, China and the US may expect an increase of total arable land by 37-67%, 22-36% and 4-17%, respectively, while tropical and sub-tropical regions may suffer different levels of lost arable land. For example, South America may lose 1-21% of its arable land area, Africa 1-18%, Europe 11-17%, and India 2-4%. When considering, in addition, land used for human settlements and natural conservation, the net potential arable land may decrease even further worldwide by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios due to population growth. Regionally, it is likely that both climate change and population growth will cause reductions in arable land in Africa, South America, India and Europe. However, in Russia, China and the US, significant arable land increases may still be possible. Although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are regionally consistent.

关键词： global climate change   industrial animal agriculture   Livestock's Long Shadow report   risk society  

摘要： This paper examines discourses of stakeholders regarding global climate change to assess whether and how they construct industrial animal agriculture as posing a risk. The analysis assesses whether these discourses have shifted since the release of Livestock's Long Shadow, a report by the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization, which indicated that the industrial animal agriculture sector as a whole contributes more to global climate change than the transportation sector. Using Ulrich Beck's theorizing of the "risk society," this paper examines how various animal rights and welfare groups, environmental organizations, meat industry stakeholders, governmental agencies, and newspapers in Canada, the United States, and internationally investigate and construct industrial animal agriculture as a risk, if at all, and how their respective discourses conflict. The findings indicate that while some stakeholders acknowledge industrial animal agriculture's contribution to global climate change, for the most part the problematization of animal agriculture has not increased since the release of Livestock's Long Shadow, and the animal agriculture industry has seemingly not lost its power to "rationalize risk."

关键词： 农业  

关键词： adaptation   agricultural policy   agriculture   climatic change   global warming   socioeconomics   weather   Developed Countries   EFTA   OECD Countries   Scandinavia   Northern Europe   Europe.   agricultural sector   Northern Norway   Global Warming   OECD countries   Farmers (2004)   agriculture   Europe   Northern Europe   adaptive capacity   Growing conditions   Scandinavia   agricultural policy   Weather   EFTA   Socioeconomic Factors  

摘要： As a primary industry, agriculture is directly dependent on natural conditions and therefore potentially vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. In Norway and Northern Norway in particular, the future climatic changes are expected to be overall positive. Still, the consequences for agriculture are not straightforward, but dependent on the interaction between different weather and biological elements, as well as political, economic and social conditions. In this interdisciplinary study we have assessed biological and agronomic effects of climate change, and their interaction with political, economic and social factors, to identify farmers' vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change. The assessments are based on downscaled climate change scenarios and interviews with local farmers in the three northernmost counties in Northern Norway (latitude 65.5 degrees to 70 degrees). The study shows that the farmers to a degree are vulnerable to a changing climate, not mainly because of the direct effects of changing growing conditions, but because these changes are an added factor to an already tenuous situation created by Norwegian agricultural policy and socio-economic development in general. We have found that farmers are highly adaptive, to both changing growing conditions and changing agricultural policies. However, changes in policy are currently a greater challenge to farmers than climate change, and such changes are therefore a more salient driver of vulnerability.