关键词： 熊岳地区   气温   积温   降水量   干旱指数   日照时数  

摘要： 以熊岳国家基本气象站1984-2019年气象资料为基础,综合分析熊岳地区气温、降水和日照变化等特征。结果表明:熊岳地区年均气温9.8℃,呈升高趋势,上升速率为0.32℃/10 a;年均气温日较差上升速率为0.11℃/10 a;年均≥10℃积温3853.0℃·d,上升速率为94.75℃·d/10 a;雨日数和大雨日数呈减少趋势,年均降水量599.6 mm,全年降水量波动大且整体呈减少的特征,倾向率为-16.27 mm/10 a;干旱指数>1,倾向率为-0.01/10 a,呈现干旱状况但有减小趋势;年均日照时数为2686.9 h,具有升高趋势,上升速率为39.71 h/10 a。

关键词： 气候变化   SWAT模型   乌伦古河流域   面源污染  

摘要： 以新疆乌伦古河流域为研究区,基于SWAT模型构建适用于该流域的面源污染分布式水文模型,采用情景设置法设定9种气候变化情景。分析不同气候变化情景对流域径流及面源污染负荷的影响,识别重点影响区域,为流域面源污染防控提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)径流、总氮和总磷在率定期和验证期的决定系数R^2均在0.75以上,纳什系数E_(ns)均在0.55以上,建立的SWAT模型能够用于乌伦古河流域农业面源污染负荷模拟;(2)增加20%的降水量,径流量增加48.01%、总氮负荷增加23.19%、总磷负荷增加29.65%,气温变化对径流量的影响小于降水量变化对径流量的影响;(3)各子流域年均单位面积总氮负荷为0.01~164.79 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1),单位面积总磷负荷为0.01~45.10 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1),气候变化对面源污染影响较大区域主要分布在福海县的阿尔达乡、富蕴县的吐尔洪乡、库尔特乡、恰库尔图镇,及青河县的阿热勒乡、阿热勒托别镇、塔克什肯镇等。说明降水增多是乌伦古河流域农业面源污染负荷的主要影响因素之一。未来在农业面源污染防治中应重点控制畜禽养殖和农田径流这两类污染源。

关键词： 气候变化   婺源   绿茶   早春霜冻   夏季热害   冬季冻害  

摘要： 基于1961~2021年婺源县逐日气温观测数据,采用线性倾向率、Manner-Kendall突变检验等方法研究了近61年婺源县平均气温和婺源绿茶主要农业气象灾害的演变特征及变化趋势。结果表明:1961~2021年婺源县气候存在明显变暖的趋势,2001年为年平均气温增加的突变起始年;婺源绿茶早春霜冻和低温冻害的发生程度均以轻度为主,并且发生频率均呈显著的减少趋势;不同等级夏季热害在年际间的变化趋势不显著,但进入21世纪后呈多发趋势;早春霜冻和冬季冻害年发生总日数的突变年份均在1996年,而夏季热害年发生总次数则无突变。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   影响  

摘要： 现代农业的发展依然会受到气候变化因素的影响引发各类病虫害,降低农产品产量与质量,需引起农业部门的高度关注。依据各地区实际情况,结合具体影响因素与问题,制定完善的防治方案与措施,并全面落实到农业种植与管理领域中,逐渐提高农业气象灾害预防水平与能力,满足现代化农业可持续发展要求。

关键词： agricultural practice   climate change   first-order difference multiple regression   latitude-dependent effects   northeast China   soybean yield  

摘要： BACKGROUND Although climate change and agricultural practices have non-negligible impacts on crop yields, their quantitative contributions to soybean yields remain unclear. First-order difference multiple regression was used to determine the respective contributions of climate change and agricultural practice to changes in soybean yields at station level from 1981 to 2010 in northeast China. RESULTS From 1981 to 2010, the soybean yields at 87% of the stations were increasing with an average 41.18 kg ha year(-1) change trend in northeast China. The individual impacts of climate change and agricultural practice on soybean yield were -0.33% to 0.58% year(-1) and -3.3% to 7.89% year(-1), respectively. The sensitivity of the soybean yield to climatic factors was related to latitude, and yields at high-latitude stations were positively correlated with temperature but negatively correlated with accumulated sunshine hours. Climate change contributed -24% to 38% to the trend in soybean yield, and the temperature had the greatest effect of all the climatic factors. CONCLUSION The contribution of agricultural practices was greater than that of climate change, counteracting the adverse effects of climate change and even affecting the direction of soybean yield changes. In adaptive decision making, priority should be given to management measures that have less impact on the environment, such as breeding new varieties adapted to specific latitudes, thus promoting the sustainable production of soybeans. (c) 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

关键词： 农业   水资源   适应性管理   经济效应  

摘要： 在全球气候变化的背景下,农业水资源管理面临前所未有的挑战,传统的农业水资源管理方法逐渐显示出其局限性,已经无法满足当前农业的水资源管理需求。本文对农业水资源管理进行一定论述,在此基础上,分别提出按需灌溉与高效利用、科学干预与统筹管理以及水权保护与水资源市场化等农业水资源适应性管理策略,并对其经济效益进行评估,进而为实现农业水资源的合理利用提供参考。

关键词： Climate change   Livelihood vulnerability   Driving factors   Coastal agricultural livelihood   Adaptation   Bangladesh  

摘要： Understanding the spatial variation of agricultural livelihood vulnerability to climate change is crucial for developing adaptation strategies in the future, something that has only been seldom done so far in developing economies like Bangladesh. To this end, we developed an integrated vulnerability index (IVI) based on the IPCC framework for analyzing and mapping the vulnerability of agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh. The IVI was calculated as a function of three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We used 45 indicators from nationally comparable and reliable datasets to conduct the research. Besides, a socio-economic livelihood vulnerability index (SELVI) was developed on the basis of sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators and displayed in a scatter diagram in order to identify the socio-economically more vulnerable districts of coastal Bangladesh. A circumplex chart was used to disaggregate the normalized indices of sensitivity and adaptive capacity components, allowing the researcher to discover the factors that cause and mitigate the vulnerability. Using the IVI information, a vulnerability map was created that revealed that Patuakhali, Noakhali, Bhola, and Barguna districts in the exposed central coastal region were the topmost vulnerable districts, reflecting the fact that the agricultural livelihoods of 7.3 million people were highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The geographical diversity in salt intrusion, river-bank erosion, dependence ratio, crop yield, literacy, the density of physicians in the hospital, disaster-resistant houses, shelter facilities, and irrigated farming areas contributed to the diverse coastal agricultural livelihood vulnerability.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   山西沁水   1957—2019年  

摘要： 本文利用1957—2019年沁水县气温、降水等气象资料,基于气候统计原理,对沁水县气候变化趋势及其对农业生产的影响进行了分析。结果表明:1957—2019年沁水县气温上升趋势明显,气候倾向率为0.10℃/10 a;气温年代际变化显著,21世纪后气温明显上升;春、冬季增温尤其明显,夏季气温降低;≥0℃积温增加18℃/10 a,粮食作物春播期提前,秋播期推迟,作物生长期延长;冬、春季热量资源增加,有利于冬小麦生长,春季小麦返青、果树萌动等发育期提前;年降水量波动较大,且呈下降趋势,降水量的减少主要集中在春季和秋季,夏季降水略有增加,冬季降水变化不明显,作物生长期内降水明显减少,干旱发生频率增加;气候变化对沁水县作物生长、产量等均有一定的影响。

关键词： 气候智慧型农业   农业生产总值   甲烷排放量   一氧化二氮排放量  

摘要： 农业、林业和其他土地利用(AFOLU)类别的排放量占全球温室气体排放量的24%,其中主要为甲烷和一氧化二氮。文章从农业甲烷、一氧化二氮排放量对农业产值影响进行了回归分析,得出结论:气候智能型农业对中国经济发展起到积极影响,对气候变化起到有效缓解的作用。

关键词： 康保县   降水量   干燥度   气温   日照时数   气候变化  

摘要： 为了探求康保县近年来的气候变化特征,利用一元线性回归方程等数理统计方法,分析了康保县1961—2019年的降水、气温和日照情况。结果表明:1997—2019年康保县的年降水量呈上升趋势,1997—2013年的干燥度呈下降趋势,近23年的降水量和干燥度的发展趋势有利于农业生产;1961—2019年康保县的年平均气温和冬季极端最低气温均呈上升趋势,有利于大部分农作物生长和玫瑰等灌木的顺利越冬;康保县日照充足,2006—2019年的日照时数呈上升趋势;康保县雨热同季,月降水量和月平均气温的最大值均出现在7月。近年来,利用康保县的气候变化特征,逐步引进了玫瑰、枸杞和藜麦等经济作物,取得了一定的经济效益和社会效益。