关键词： 农业气候资源   黄淮海平原   气候倾向率  

摘要： 基于中国黄淮海平原半湿润暖温麦-玉两熟灌溉农区66个气象台站1961—2007年的气候资料,比较分析了该区域内1961—1980年和1981—2007年2个时段喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期长度以及温度生长期内的活动积温、日照时数、降水量、参考作物蒸散量和干燥度等农业气候资源的时空变化特征.结果表明:随着气候变暖,与1961—1980年的平均状况相比,1981—2007年研究区域喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期均呈延长趋势,分别延长了7.4和6.9 d;≥0℃和≥10℃积温总体表现为增加趋势,其气候倾向率分别为4.0～137.0和1.0～142.0℃.d.(10 a)-1;喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期日照时数均呈显著下降趋势;全区仅安徽省北部和河南省东南部喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内降水量呈增加趋势,其他地区均呈减少趋势,且以河北省、山东省北部的减幅最明显;全区大部分区域喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内参考作物蒸散量呈下降趋势,干燥度呈增加趋势.

关键词： 气候变化   脆弱性   农业  

摘要： 随着对气候变化研究的不断深入,气候变化脆弱性问题也得到了更多的关注。相对于水资源、森林等其他自然生态系统,农业受气候变化的影响最大,科学地评价其对气候变化的脆弱性,对于制定合理有效的适应对策具有重要意义。从气候变化脆弱性与农业对气候变化脆弱性的定义、研究内容和评价方法等角度综述了研究进展,在此基础上分析了目前该领域存在的问题,包括情景应用、方法和不确定性等方面,并展望了未来脆弱性评价的发展方向。

关键词： 气候变化   气候变暖   农业气象灾害   极端气候事件   适应  

摘要： 基于国内有关研究,综述了气候变化对我国农业气候资源和农作物种植结构影响的观测事实,分析了气候变化中农业气象灾害时间变化趋势,评述了未来气候变化对农作物生产的可能影响和适应策略。得出:(1)中国大陆(西南地区除外)光温生产潜力呈明显增长趋势,其中北方增幅大于南方,气候变化对不同地区的不同作物的生产潜力影响不同。(2)气温升高增加了各地的农业热量资源,促进了复种指数增加和农业气候带向北向西推移,喜温作物播种面积比例增加;同时我国北方干暖化趋势,南方洪涝灾害频发,也引起不同地区的种植制度发生变化。(3)气候变化背景下,我国近50年来因气象灾害导致的农业受灾面积不断扩大,农业经济损失逐年升高,同时极端气候事件发生的频率和强度在加大,增加了农业生产的风险。(4)未来气候变化对我国农业生产有利有弊,气候变暖将导致适宜作物种植和多熟种植的北界都将北移,作物布局和品种熟制也将发生变化;同时气候变化可能导致未来气象灾害更加频繁,农业生产的不稳定性增加。(5)基于已有的科学认识,提出了优化我国农业种植制度、调整作物种植结构、加强农业基础设施建设和选育抗逆品种等农业适应气候变化策略。

关键词： SEDIMENTATION & deposition   PREHISTORIC agriculture   CLIMATIC changes   CROPS & climate   STRATIGRAPHIC geology -- Holocene   FLUVISOLS   ARCHAEOLOGICAL geology  

摘要： Despite the importance of understanding the effect of land use on floodplains in eastern North America, few studies have directly addressed the possibility and extent of prehistoric indigenous land use on floodplain development. Here we report geoarchaeological evidence of increasing floodplain sedimentation and prehistoric land-use intensification in the Delaware River Valley (eastern United States) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age transition. The evidence of this anthropogenic sedimentation event, documented throughout eastern North America, is designated here as pre-colonial sediment (PCS), ca. A. D. 1100-1600. The data demonstrate that the combined effects of prehistoric land use and climate change affected eastern North American floodplain development several hundred years prior to the onset of major European settlement.

关键词： Farmers   Perceptions   Agronomy   Climate change   Drought  

摘要： This paper investigates farmers' perceptions of climate change and variability in southwest Uganda and compares them with daily rainfall and temperature measurements from the 1960s to the present, including trends in daily rainfall and temperature, seasonality: changing probability of risk and intensity of rainfall events. Statistical analyses and modelling of rainfall and temperature were performed and contrasted with qualitative data collected through a semi-structured questionnaire. The fieldwork showed that farmers perceived regional climate to have changed in the past 20 years. In particular, farmers felt that temperature had increased and seasonality and variability had changed, with the first rainy season between March and May becoming more variable. Farmers reported detailed accounts of climate characteristics during specific years, with recent droughts in the late 1990s and late 2000s confirming local perceptions that there has been a shift in climate towards more variable conditions that are less favourable to production. There is a clear signal that temperature has been increasing in the climate data mid, to a lesser extent, evidence that the reliability of rains in the first season has decreased slightly However, rainfall measurements do not show a downward trend in rainfall amount, a significant shift in the intensity of rainfall events or in the start and end of the rainy seasons. We explore why there are some differences between farmers' perceptions and die climate data due to different associations of risk between ideal rainfall by farmers, including the amount and distribution needed for production, meteorological definitions of normal rainfall or the long-term statistical mean and its variation, and the impact of higher temperatures. The paper reflects on the methodological approach and considers the implications for communicating information about risk to users in order to support agricultural innovation.

关键词： AGRICULTURE -- United States   CLIMATIC changes  

摘要： The article focuses on how agriculture can adapt to climate change in the U.S.

关键词： AGRICULTURE   RISK assessment   FOOD security   CROPPING systems   ECONOMETRIC models  

摘要： The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change;existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

关键词： 农业安全生产   气候变化   农业结构战略性调整   可持续发展道路   保障   自然灾害   生产任务   粮食安全  

摘要： 农业是应对自然灾害最脆弱的产业，受气候变化的影响最大。目前我国处于农业结构战略性调整的关键时期，粮食安全生产任务艰巨，未来的气候变化对农业生产的影响还存在相当大的不确定性，因此迫切需要探索一条可持续发展道路，以适应和减缓气候变化对农业产生的影响。

关键词： 气候变化   低碳农业   可持续发展  

摘要： 气候变化给我国自然生态系统和经济社会发展带来了现实的威胁，主要体现在农牧业、林业、自然生态系统、水资源等领域以及沿海和生态脆弱地区，适应气候变化已成为中国的迫切任务。我国是农业自然灾害频发的国家，气候变化使我国更加频繁地出现极端天气，如强暴雨、强雷暴、干旱化等。倨国家减灾委、民政部统计，截至2010年8月6日，洪涝灾害造成全国2亿人（次）受灾，

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   本溪山区  

摘要： 利用本溪地区1953-2008年温度、降水和主要农业气象灾害资料,根据农业气象学原理和农业气象灾害指标,整理、统计、分析相应的气象要素。采用气候倾向率和Mann-kendall方法,对气象要素变化特征进行诊断分析。结果表明:本溪山区温度呈上升趋势、降水呈下降趋势变化,年平均气温线性倾向率为0.29℃/10a,四季中,冬季线性倾向率最大,为0.61℃/10a;年降水量的线性倾向率为-26.11mm/10a,春季线性倾向率为2.88mm/10a,其他各季呈减少趋势变化。暴雨日数呈现减少趋势变化,但是灾害损失呈现增加趋势,洪涝频率减少,干旱频率增加。通过对气候变化与主要气象灾害研究,为合理开发山区气候资源,调整产业结构提供科学的气象依据。