关键词： 气候变化影响   农业   科学问题   科学基础   模型评估  

摘要： 一、如何认识气候变化对农业的影响？ 认识气候变化影响农业的特征是探索应对和适应的可能途径的科学基础。尽管有一些影响报道和影响的模型评估研究,但气候变化对农业的影响的具体机制对不同产业的影响特点和趋势仍然很不清楚。

关键词： 气候变化   宁夏农业案例实践   适应行动框架   气候风险  

摘要： 宁夏是我国生态脆弱区和贫困区之一,以宁夏为例开展农业适应行动实践具有一定的代表性和示范作用。根据气候变化适应行动实施框架,研究结果表明:宁夏未来气候干旱风险将增加,水资源短缺矛盾加剧,极端气候事件频率和强度加大。未来宁夏北部灌区农业应以发展节水灌溉和高效种植为主,中部以设施农业和牧业为主,南部以发展特色农业为主。气象部门和水利部门对适应技术的适应效果持乐观态度,农牧业部门和林业部门则态度谨慎。适应措施能否实施的首要条件是措施符合国家和地方的政策方针,其次是成本效益;在实施条件中,要求相对比较弱化的是公众对气候风险的认知程度以及措施的灵活调整性。在适应措施选择上,气象服务和种植结构调整成为首选的适应技术,而覆盖技术、节水技术由于更倾向于传统的技术范畴,虽然效果较好,但对其适应优先性选择存在影响。

关键词： 气象灾害   趋势   气候变化   锦州地区  

摘要： 农业气象灾害是影响和制约农业生产的重要因素,其发生发展趋势、时空分布、程度等随着气候变化亦在发生改变。该文对在气候变化尤其是气候变暖过程中,影响锦州地区的干旱、洪涝、大风、冰雹等主要农业气象灾害发生频率、程度等的变化趋势以20世纪80年代中期为界进行分析,并提出防灾减灾措施。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   影响   防御对策   新疆乌鲁木齐  

摘要： 通过对1960—2009年乌鲁木齐的观测资料统计分析,结果表明,乌鲁木齐气候发生了很大的变化,暖冬现象日趋明显,年降水量呈上升趋势,主要影响乌鲁木齐的农业气象灾害发生了相应的变化,主要表现在干旱灾害增加,霜冻、寒潮灾害减少,病虫害日趋严重,并提出对策,以达到趋利避害、保障农业的可持续发展。

关键词： 农业产业   气候变化   农村发展   民生   农民   中高纬度地区   生产成本   生产布局  

摘要： 一、气候变化与农业产业 气候变化已经对中国农业产生了重大影响。温度升高将使中高纬度地区热量资源增加．农作物生长季延长．农业种植界线向北移动．而气候变化给我国农业生产布局和结构带来的影响．今后还将进一步增加农业的生产成本（林而达，2001）。

关键词： 西南地区   农业气候资源   气候倾向率  

摘要： 基于1961—2007年中国西南地区88个气象台站的地面观测资料,结合统计方法和GIS软件,分析了全年及温度生长期内农业气候资源的时空变化特征.结果表明:1961—2007年,西南地区年平均气温呈上升趋势,平均增速为0.18℃.(10 a)-1;温度生长期内≥10℃和≥15℃积温均呈增加趋势,平均增速分别为55.3℃.d.(10 a)-1和37℃.d.(10a)-1.全区年日照时数呈现由西向东逐渐减少的特征,且东部的减少趋势较西部更显著;温度生长期内日照时数整体呈增加趋势,但空间差异较大.全区降水资源总体减少,年降水量和温度生长期内降水量的平均下降速率分别为10 mm.(10 a)-1和8 mm.(10 a)-1.全区年参考作物蒸散量普遍降低,其减幅小于年降水量的变化趋势,约53%的站点温度生长期内参考作物蒸散量减少.

关键词： 气候变化   宁夏   农业   影响  

摘要： 20世纪60年代中期以来,宁夏地区气候变化的主要特点是:气温升高、降水减少,1986年附近发生了一次明显的气温跃变,跃变后年平均气温升高了1.0℃,模拟预测显示,2080s宁夏的年平均、冬季和夏季平均气温还将明显上升,降水量较基准时段将有所增加。对主要作物而言,宁夏气候变暖以后春小麦气候产量下降明显,减产幅度在30%～60%;气候变暖为水稻高产品种的引进创造了条件,使单产变率减小,保证高产稳产;气温增幅在2.8℃内对玉米生产有利,增幅超过2.8℃会造成玉米减产;生育期平均温度升高会对马铃薯的产量产生负面影响,生育期提早,停止生长期推迟,生长季延长约15d。对于宁夏当地的特色农产品生产而言,枸杞、硒砂瓜、酿酒葡萄都会受到气候变暖、降水减少的不利影响,必须合理补充灌溉。对作物品质而言,气候变暖为酿酒葡萄、玉米等喜温和喜热作物生长发育提供了更充足和更有利的热量资源,使这些作物的品质有所提高。另外,气候变暖使某些农作物的适宜种植面积扩大,使宁夏地区采用的作物品种的熟性由早熟向中晚熟发展、多熟制向北推移和复种指数提高,但气候变暖后病虫害的影响会增加。在引黄灌区,有利于发展喜热、喜温的优质特色农业,可扩大酿酒葡萄、硒砂瓜等特色农业的种植面积。

关键词： 气候变化   农业影响   模型模拟  

摘要： 模型模拟是研究气候变化对农业生产影响的有效途径,得到了广泛关注和应用。本文着重介绍了利用作物模型研究气候变化对农业生产影响的发展过程,即从最初通过人为改变气候参数模拟气候变化对农业的可能影响,到与气候情景结合模拟未来气候变化对农业的可能影响及近年来与其它模型结合综合模拟未来气候变化对农业的影响,并通过对气候变化农业影响模型模拟研究中经验模型与机理模型、站点尺度与区域尺度、确定性气候情景与概率气候情景几个关键问题的评述,指出了存在的问题及未来发展趋势。

关键词： global change   water resources   agricultural water security  

摘要： Agriculture, in its broadest form, is the greatest consumptive user of water resources in the United States and around the world. Perhaps the greatest challenge facing agricultural producers will be adapting water management to an increasingly variable climate. Adaptation will be extremely difficult, in part because other demands for water (e.g., energy, domestic, industrial, municipal) will continue to increase. Despite considerable improvements in irrigation technology, product development, and other water-saving approaches, agricultural producers will be expected to reduce water consumption and improve or protect water quality of water discharged from agricultural operations. In 2004, the National Institute of Food and Agriculture embarked on an effort to address Agricultural Water Security, ensuring sufficient water of the appropriate quality at the needed time to meet demands for food, fiber, and other agricultural goods and services. This effort identified six broad areas where agricultural research, education, and extension can impact water management to achieve agricultural water security. The six areas are: biotechnology, water reuse, general conservation, irrigation efficiency, water markets and trading, and drought preparedness. We present an overview of the six areas and opportunities for agriculture and specifically horticultural and specialty crop producers to adapt to climate change through improved water management.

关键词： Climate change   Adaptation   Modelling   Farmer practice   Performance   West Africa   Southeastern United States  

摘要： Most climate change studies that address potential impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. While models are useful for visualizing potential future outcomes and evaluating options for potential adaptation, they do not adequately represent and integrate adaptive human agency. Richards' concept of 'agriculture as performance' is useful in counterbalancing the modelling approach to adaptation because it highlights how adaptive processes and technologies, whether short term or long term, are more than simple technical responses to biophysical conditions. Instead, adaptive processes are social phenomena whose significance and effects expand well beyond changing climate conditions. This examination of agriculture as performance in the context of climate adaptation draws on two different examples. The first example explores how technical aspects of climate adaptation in Mali are situated within the enactment of ethnic identities and political struggles between farmers and herders. The second example shows how farmers in southeastern United States approach climate variability and climate forecasts as risk management tools. There are substantial differences between approaching adaptation as a dynamic process that is socially embedded and approaching adaptation as a set of modelled responses to anticipated future conditions. It is unlikely that either is adequate to meet the challenges posed by the uncertainties associated with climate change. However, building a synergistic relationship between the two promises to be as difficult as it is necessary. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Royal Netherlands Society for Agricultural Sciences.