关键词： 西北干旱区   农业气候资源   时空特征  

摘要： 基于1961-2007年中国西北干旱区78个气象台站的气象资料,分析了西北干旱区全年、喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内热量、光照和水分的时空变化特征.结果表明:研究期间,西北干旱区年均气温呈上升趋势,其气候倾向率为0.35℃.(10 a)-1;喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内积温总体呈升高趋势,其气候倾向率分别为67和50℃.d.(10 a)-1;研究区大部站点的年日照时数呈明显下降趋势,除新疆大部地区和宁夏平原以东的喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内日照时数呈降低趋势外,其余地区均呈升高趋势;研究区大部地区的全年参考作物蒸散量呈下降趋势,而喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内的参考作物蒸散量则表现为研究区西部下降、东部上升.与1961-1980年相比,1981-2007年研究区大部地区全年及喜凉作物和喜温作物温度生长期内的降水量呈增加趋势,其增幅的空间变化趋势均由西北向东南递减.

关键词： 气候变化政策   国外农业   技术   农业可持续发展   农业综合开发   考察活动   农业生产   培训  

摘要： 2010年11月30日至12月19日，由国家农发办组织的“农业生产适应气候变化政策及相关技术措施”培训团一行14人赴美国进行了相关培训考察活动，这次培训学习使大家学到了很多新知识、新理念，对农业综合开发工作如何适应并积极应对气候变化，走农业可持续发展的路子有了新的认识。

关键词： 气候变化趋势   农业领域   西班牙   英国   农业综合开发   农业生产水平   农业自然灾害   持续稳定发展  

摘要： 2010年6月27日至7月6日,河南省农业综合开发办公室＂农业领域应对气候变化的支持政策与适应措施考察团,赴西班牙和英国进行了为期10天的考察学习。通过这次考察,对两国农业生产水平有了深入了解，尤其是在气候变化趋势下，两国政府部门主动加强农业领域对气候变化的战略研究，开展农业自然灾害的预警预报，强化抗灾减灾技术研究，采取政策支持、财政补贴、全民参与等多种途径措施，促进农业持续稳定发展，农业生态环境保护治理，给考察团成员留下了深刻的印象，受益匪浅。

关键词： 有机农业   气候变化  

摘要： 有机农业有多种客观事实,如避免对环境的伤害、促进生物多样性、维护迷人的风景、以尊重其自然福利的方式养殖畜禽,以及生产出良好的食物。它同样提供了一条线索来解决气候变化的问题:有机农业是一种节俭地运用资源的不同途径,是气候友好的,并提供出了对适应气候变化的有重大意义的知识视角。

关键词： Taita hills   Water resources   Simulation models   Agricultural expansion   Climate change  

摘要： Water resources and land use are closely linked with each other and with regional climate, assembling a very complex system. The understanding of the interconnecting relations involved in this system is an essential step for elaborating public policies that can effectively lead to the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, an integrated modelling framework was assembled in order to investigate potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) in the Taita Hills, Kenya. The framework comprised a land use change simulation model, a reference evapotranspiration model and synthetic precipitation datasets generated through a Monte Carlo simulation. In order to generate plausible climate change scenarios, outputs from General Climate Models were used as reference to perturbing the Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that throughout the next 20 years the low availability of arable lands in the hills will drive agricultural expansion to areas with higher IWR in the foothills. If current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. This expansion will increase by approximately 40% the annual water volume necessary for irrigation. Climate change may slightly decrease crops' IWR in April and November by 2030, while in May a small increase will likely be observed. The integrated assessment of these environmental changes allowed a clear identification of priority regions for land use allocation policies and water resources management. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Agricultural impacts   Effects of drought   Adaptive capacity   Climate risks to agriculture  

摘要： Australian agriculture has operated successfully in one of the world's most hostile environments for two centuries. However, climate change is posing serious challenges to its ongoing success. Determining what might constitute dangerous climate change for Australian agriculture is not an easy task, as most climate-related risks are associated with changes in the highly uncertain hydrological cycle rather than directly to more predictable changes in temperature. In addition, the adaptive capacity of Australian producers is generally high, as they have had to cope with a highly variable climate in which periodic, severe droughts are the norm. As the underlying global trends in climate interact with the continent's patterns of natural variability, producers can generally deal with gradual changes in climate but are most concerned about high rates of change in regional and local climates and with abrupt, unexpected shifts in climate patterns. Perhaps the best indicator of dangerous climate change for Australian agriculture is the persistence, or not, of the drying trends in many of the Country's most productive regions and the strength of the linkage between these trends and global climate change.

关键词： PRAIRIES   CLIMATIC changes   AGRICULTURE   ECONOMICS   WATER supply   BIOTIC communities  

摘要： Les risques et les avantages que presente le changement climatique dans les provinces des Prairies sont lies au climat sec et variable - augmentations de temperature prevues plus elevees qu'ailleurs dans le sud du Canada;sensibilite des ressources en eau, des ecosystemes et des economies fondees sur les ressources naturelles aux variations climatiques saisonnieres et interannuelles;anomalies importantes (par exemple, la secheresse) par rapport aux conditions climatiques normales. Le secteur agricole subira des repercussions positives et negatives. Les repercussions nettes sur l'agriculture ne sont pas claires, etant donne que divers aspects de l'adaptation au changement climatique ne sont pas encore bien compris. D'autres secteurs de l'economie subiront egalement des repercussions. Un climat plus chaud presenterait des avantages sur le plan des revenus, des economies de couts et des loisirs. Compte tenu de notre manque de certitude concernant les repercussions et les mesures d'adaptation appropriees, une collaboration accrue entre les scientifiques et les parties interessees serait souhaitable.

关键词： North Africa   Drought   Climate scenarios   Rain-fed wheat   Agricultural production   Agriculture   Maghreb   Climate change   Climate impact  

摘要： In the Maghreb and North African regions, the interannual climate variability causes severe impacts on agriculture through long drought episodes. Impacts are expected to increase due to projected climate change. Decreasing water availability will have a direct impact on the agriculture sector and could endanger the socioeconomic development and social stability in Tunisia where rain-fed agriculture represents the main occupancy and means of subsistence for the large rural population.

关键词： Climate change   agriculture   rural   drought   health policy  

摘要： Population health is a function of social and environmental health determinants. Climate change is predicted to bring significant alterations to ecological systems on which human health and livelihoods depend;the air, water, plant, and animal health. Agricultural systems are intrinsically linked with environmental conditions, which are already under threat in much of southern Australian because of rising heat and protracted drying. The direct impact of increasing heat waves on human physiology and survival has recently been well studied. More diffusely, increasing drought periods may challenge the viability of agriculture in some regions, and hence those communities that depend on primary production. A worst case scenario may herald the collapse of some communities. Human health impacts arising from such transition would be profound. This article summarizes existing rural health challenges and presents the current evidence plus future predictions of climate change impacts on Australian agriculture to argue the need for significant augmentation of public health and existing health policy frameworks. The article concludes by suggesting that adaptation to climate change requires planning for worst case scenario outcomes to avert catastrophic impacts on rural communities. This will involve national policy planning as much as regional-level leadership for rapid development of adaptive strategies in agriculture and other key areas of rural communities.

关键词： Climate change   Public adaptation   Irrigation   South America  

摘要： This paper provides an analysis of public adaptation to climate change using agricultural water schemes in South American farms. Unlike other studies of adaptation, this paper examines the differences between private irrigation and public irrigation schemes based on around 1400 farm surveys collected across seven countries in South America which recorded detailed water schemes. We analyze the choice of water schemes in the first stage and the land values for each scheme in the second stage. We find that public irrigations do not increase in response to a warmer climate, but private irrigations do. On the other hand, we find that public irrigation schemes are provided primarily as a response to water scarcity. Moreover, we find that private irrigations are taken gradually while public irrigations are provided as a lump sum, resulting in either too much or too little provision. Therefore, public adaptations to climate change will likely involve two inefficiencies. No provision of irrigation in a hotter climate may result from a lack of knowledge. Overprovision of irrigation in dry zones may result from a lump-sum provision of a public good. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.