关键词： 濮阳   气候变化   分析   农业影响  

摘要： 为了确定气候变化对农业生产的利弊影响,笔者利用线性和方差分析法,对濮阳55年降水量、气温及日照年际变化进行重点分析。结果表明：55年来,濮阳地区平均气温呈上升趋势,各季中以冬季增温明显,春季次之,秋季最弱,夏季则有变凉趋势;日照时数总体呈减少趋势,年日照时数以平均每10年135h的幅度递减。年平均降水量为599.8mm,年降水量距平百分率为-56%~75%,表明年降水量的年际变化较大,容易形成干旱或夏季内涝。造成气候变化的原因是,人类活动导致气候持续变暖,空气污染的逐年加重导致日照减少,降水总体呈阶段性变化趋势。

关键词： 农业生产方式   气候变化   水稻  

摘要： 本文通过对气候变化和影响气候变化因素的分析,以南方水稻产区为例,提出了南方稻区生产方式的转变,农业措施的综合运用,适应与减缓气候变化影响。

关键词： Climate change   Agricultural production   Impact   Adaptation countermeasure  

摘要： Global climate warming has discernable impacts on various natural systems and biological systems. As the most fragile ecosystem,agriculture is subjected to the most direct impacts from climate change. Of these impacts,the first one is the change in agricultural climate resources,which directly affects agricultural cultivation structure and crop variety distribution and finally results in the change in crop yield. Here,we review the advances in the impacts of climate change on crop yield,agricultural climate resources and China＇s agricultural cropping system and crop variety distribution pattern,and prospect the countermeasures for agricultural production in order to meet the future climate change,and several issues must be given high priority.

关键词： 气候变化   农业种植   结构布局   影响   河南商城  

摘要： 介绍了商城县自北向南的气候特点,并根据各地区气候特点对当地农业产业结构布局提出建议,以期促进该县农业发展。

关键词： 气候变化   中国农业   农业生产   适应和应对   国家战略  

摘要： 通过整合农业科学界从不同行业产业角度和不同的影响方面对气候变化可能带来农业生产影响的分析资料,梳理和辨析了气候变化对农业生产影响的途径和机理,提出了气候变化对中国国家尺度农业影响的"发酵"效应假设:气候变化因子间相互作用与交错叠加,产业的传递和反馈,可能带来不利效应的严重放大;未来气候变化下中国农业面临的基本问题将是:农业技术进步的迟滞性和农业生产能力的波动性,稳定农业生产水平和粮食供应能力将愈来愈困难。讨论和建议了应对气候变化的若干国家战略,这些战略应基于气候变化对中国农业生产的影响的敏感性行业和地区,气候变化的突出性趋势的认识。防患和应对极端性气象灾害事件将成为应对气候变化对农业影响的首要任务,需要加强研究和技术储备,同时迫切需要新的组织和运行机制全面开展气候变化对中国农业生产影响的试验和技术开发研究。

关键词： 气候变化   中国农业   农业生产   农业气象  

摘要： 未来气候变化下中国农业的稳定事关中国的长远持续发展,国内外气候变化研究界和农业气象研究界对气候变化对中国农业生产的影响的评估未有一致的认识。本文从农业科学角度讨论了气候变化对中国农业生产涉及的气象资源、土地资源、农业生物环境和生态系统的影响,并从作物生长和经济产量形成的角度讨论和分析了气候变化对中国种植业、养殖业不同产业行业的影响,气候变化中一些趋势性变化因不同作物和不同区域而异,例如温度和CO_2浓度变化对农业生产的影响因不同作物和不同时相而异,反之,极端性气候/天气事件对农业不同行业的生产都显得危害很大,而气候变化中区域性干旱将成为我国未来农业生产愈来愈严重的挑战。气候变化对中国农业生产的影响甚为复杂,一些气候变化因子的实际影响还存在很大不确定性。当前,定量评价气候变化对中国农业生产的影响还存在困难。

关键词： Sea-level rise   Impact on coastal agriculture   Geomatics analysis   Andhra Pradesh coast  

摘要： Climate change due to anthropogenic forcing through escalating greenhouse gas emissions and destruction of carbon sinks by deforestation is leading to floods and droughts affecting agriculture production. Global warming induces steric as well as eustatic rise in sea-level, by thermal expansion and addition of ice-melt water, respectively. Although the IPCC (2007) estimated a maximum possible sea-level rise of about 59 cm, more recent estimates show a global average rise of a parts per thousand yen1 m by the 2100 AD. The low-lying coastal zones are more vulnerable to rising sea levels as they face submergence or saltwater intrusion which affects the agriculture activities. Geomatics-based models on the possible impact of the predicted sea-level rise on coastal agriculture are necessary to initiate appropriate mitigation plans. The present study is an attempt in this direction taking the Andhra Pradesh (AP) coast as an example. The land use / land cover of the AP coast was mapped through the interpretation of IRS-P6 LISS III imagery from 2008. SRTM digital elevation models coupled with landform evidences have been used to interpolate contours at 0.5 m interval, although highly approximate, for the entire coastal region. If the sea level rises by 1.0 m, about 4040 km(2) area including the present intertidal wetlands as well as the land between the present and future high tide lines would be affected along the entire 1030-km-long AP coast displacing about 1.67 million inhabitants and their economic activities, in about 351 revenue villages. The low-lying Krishna-Godavari delta region in the central part of the AP coast would be the worst affected zone as 2205 km(2) of its area including about 1593 km(2) under various types of agricultural activities is lying within the future high tide limit of 2.5 m elevation.

关键词： Land capability   Climate change   Drought risk   Soil moisture   Land use  

摘要： Land capability classification systems define and communicate biophysical limitations on land use, including climate, soils and topography. They can therefore provide an accessible format for both scientists and decision-makers to share knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation. Underlying such classifications are complex interactions that require dynamic spatial analysis, particularly between soil and climate. These relationships are investigated using a case study on drought risk for agriculture in Scotland, which is currently considered less significant than wetness-related issues. The impact of drought risk is assessed using an established empirical system for land capability linking indicator crops with water availability. This procedure is facilitated by spatial interpolation of climate and soil profile data to provide soil moisture deficits and plant available water on a regular 1-km grid. To evaluate potential impacts of future climate change, land capability classes are estimated using both large-scale ensemble (multi-simulation) data from the HadRM3 regional climate model and local-scale weather generator data (UKCP09) derived from multiple climate models. Results for the case study suggest that drought risk is likely to have a much more significant influence on land use in the future. This could potentially act to restrict the range of crops grown and hence reduce land capability in some areas unless strategic-level adaptation measures are developed that also integrate land use systems and water resources with the wider environment.

关键词： 国际合作   农业科技   旱区农业   论坛   杨凌   气候变化   资源利用   持续发展  

摘要： 2010年11月1-3日，由中国教育部、国家外国专家局和陕西省人民政府主办，西北农林科技大学、陕西省外国专家局、杨凌农业高新技术产业示范区管委会承办的2010杨凌国际农业科技论坛在西北农林科技大学成功举办，杨凌国际农业科技论坛自2007年至今已成功举办4届。论坛为国内外同行积极参与和分享世界农业和农业科教领域的新理论、新技术、新成果提供了重要机会和交流平台，对于我国农业院校和科研机构进一步拓宽国际合作领域、丰富合作内容、提升合作水平具有重要意义并产生了积极影响。