关键词： CLIMATIC changes   WATER supply -- Management   WATER resources development   IRRIGATION -- Management   CROPPING systems  

摘要： Climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategies were assessed using an application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system developed for the Sacramento River basin and Delta export region of the San Joaquin Valley. WEAP is an integrated rainfall/runoff, water resources systems modeling framework that can be forced directly from time series of climatic input to estimate water supplies (watershed runoff) and demands (crop evapotranspiration). We applied the model to evaluate the hydrologic implications of 12 climate change scenarios as well as the water management ramifications of the implied hydrologic changes. In addition to evaluating the impacts of climate change with current operations, the model also assessed the impacts of changing agricultural management strategies in response to a changing climate. These adaptation strategies included improvements in irrigation technology and shifts in cropping patterns towards higher valued crops. Model simulations suggested that increasing agricultural demand under climate change brought on by increasing temperature will place additional stress on the water system, such that some water users will experience a decrease in water supply reliability. The study indicated that adaptation strategies may ease the burden on the water management system. However, offsetting water demands through these approaches will not be enough to fully combat the impacts of climate change on water management. To adequately address the impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies will have to include fundamental changes in the ways in which the water management system is operated.

关键词： Biomass   Bioenergy potential   Climate change   Food   Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP)   Material flow analysis (MFA)  

摘要： There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a "food first" approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO2 on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y(-1), depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply. (C) 20

关键词： 岷江上游   干旱河谷   气候变化   农业发展   适应性对策  

摘要： 岷江上游干湿季节分明,在局地焚风效应的影响下,还出现干旱河谷的隐域性分异现象,农业也呈现立体分布格局。对岷江上游干旱气候变化对农业发展的潜在影响进行了分析,提出以集约农业技术推广建立干旱河谷生态农业区、优化土地利用格局,采用科学整地方式,构建生态农业推广技术保障体系和合理规划居民用地的岷江上游干旱河谷农业适应性对策。

关键词： 气候变化   农业   影响   应对  

摘要： 农业是气候变化最敏感脆弱的领域之一,直接受制于气候变化与气象要素。未来气候变化与气象要素时空性与振荡性的加剧,需对农业生产系统全方位影响做因地制宜、因时制宜全方位多层次应对。气候变化带来很多影响,需积极开展农业生产系统性减缓、适应应对策略和农业技术研究,全面理清农业应对气候变化的科学思绪和国家农业扶持政策。综合运用多学科理论方法,开展气候变化对农业生产影响机理和应对机制的系统构成和集成研究,更科学更合理地指导气候变化下的农业生产与积极有效应对,为农业可持续发展和粮食安全献策。

关键词： 宁夏自治区   农业生产   气候变化   风蚀地貌   黄土地貌   流水侵蚀   剥蚀   干旱  

摘要： 宁夏自治区地处西北内陆，北部和中部以干旱剥蚀、风蚀地貌为主，南部以流水侵蚀的黄土地貌为主，境内地形南高北低，而气温则呈“南低北高、南寒北暧”的“倒挂”现象。

摘要： 以全球变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化对环境、生态和社会经济系统产生重大影响。适应气候变化在我国可持续发展中占有极其重要的地位，特别反映在农业及相关产业的发展中。趋势性的气候变化和它所带来的灾害，通过改变水分（水资源）和热量条件，

关键词： Comparative advantage   Climate change   Broadacre agriculture  

摘要： Australia has long been a major exporter of the products of broadacre agriculture, a production system well suited to the economic and climatic conditions of the country. Presumably, it holds a comparative advantage in these products, among which grain crops and grazing livestock predominate. However, the future plausibility of this proposition is sensitive to the projected impacts of climate change. This article develops a framework to quantify the future patterns of comparative advantage in broadacre agriculture, given the projections of several global climate models. We find empirical support for the conventional wisdom, and note substantial resilience and robustness in Australia's comparative advantage under a number of scenarios.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   黑龙江饶河  

摘要： 饶河县热量资源贫乏,水分供应过剩,随着气候的变化,热量资源和水分资源也发生了变化,年平均气温和10℃活动积温呈逐年代增长趋势,作物生长季长度和无霜期也随年代明显增长。随着农业生产技术的提高、水利设施的完善,水分供应过剩与农业生产的矛盾已愈来愈小。通过分析热量资源和水分资源变化对饶河县农业生产的影响,指出应适当调整农业生产方式、趋利避害,合理利用气象资源。根据气候变化对当地气象灾害的影响,制订和调整气象灾害防御对策和措施。

关键词： 安徽省   气候变化   低碳农业   保障措施  

摘要： 农业作为气候变化的高敏感产业,其可持续发展和粮食安全面临着气候变化带来的严峻挑战,越来越受到国际社会、各国政府和社会各界的普遍关注。文章立足安徽省情,分析了气候变化对安徽省农业发展产生的影响,提出了发展低碳农业,应对气候变化的思路、对策,以及加大资金投入、加强组织领导、开展试点示范等保障措施,以科学应对气候变化带来的挑战。

关键词： 气候变化   温室气体   影响   农业措施  

摘要： 阐述了农业生产对温室气体排放的影响,提出了减缓气候变化的农业措施。