关键词： 气候变化   中国农业   农业生产   农业气象  

摘要： 未来气候变化下中国农业的稳定事关中国的长远持续发展,国内外气候变化研究界和农业气象研究界对气候变化对中国农业生产的影响的评估未有一致的认识。本文从农业科学角度讨论了气候变化对中国农业生产涉及的气象资源、土地资源、农业生物环境和生态系统的影响,并从作物生长和经济产量形成的角度讨论和分析了气候变化对中国种植业、养殖业不同产业行业的影响,气候变化中一些趋势性变化因不同作物和不同区域而异,例如温度和CO_2浓度变化对农业生产的影响因不同作物和不同时相而异,反之,极端性气候/天气事件对农业不同行业的生产都显得危害很大,而气候变化中区域性干旱将成为我国未来农业生产愈来愈严重的挑战。气候变化对中国农业生产的影响甚为复杂,一些气候变化因子的实际影响还存在很大不确定性。当前,定量评价气候变化对中国农业生产的影响还存在困难。

关键词： Sea-level rise   Impact on coastal agriculture   Geomatics analysis   Andhra Pradesh coast  

摘要： Climate change due to anthropogenic forcing through escalating greenhouse gas emissions and destruction of carbon sinks by deforestation is leading to floods and droughts affecting agriculture production. Global warming induces steric as well as eustatic rise in sea-level, by thermal expansion and addition of ice-melt water, respectively. Although the IPCC (2007) estimated a maximum possible sea-level rise of about 59 cm, more recent estimates show a global average rise of a parts per thousand yen1 m by the 2100 AD. The low-lying coastal zones are more vulnerable to rising sea levels as they face submergence or saltwater intrusion which affects the agriculture activities. Geomatics-based models on the possible impact of the predicted sea-level rise on coastal agriculture are necessary to initiate appropriate mitigation plans. The present study is an attempt in this direction taking the Andhra Pradesh (AP) coast as an example. The land use / land cover of the AP coast was mapped through the interpretation of IRS-P6 LISS III imagery from 2008. SRTM digital elevation models coupled with landform evidences have been used to interpolate contours at 0.5 m interval, although highly approximate, for the entire coastal region. If the sea level rises by 1.0 m, about 4040 km(2) area including the present intertidal wetlands as well as the land between the present and future high tide lines would be affected along the entire 1030-km-long AP coast displacing about 1.67 million inhabitants and their economic activities, in about 351 revenue villages. The low-lying Krishna-Godavari delta region in the central part of the AP coast would be the worst affected zone as 2205 km(2) of its area including about 1593 km(2) under various types of agricultural activities is lying within the future high tide limit of 2.5 m elevation.

关键词： Land capability   Climate change   Drought risk   Soil moisture   Land use  

摘要： Land capability classification systems define and communicate biophysical limitations on land use, including climate, soils and topography. They can therefore provide an accessible format for both scientists and decision-makers to share knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation. Underlying such classifications are complex interactions that require dynamic spatial analysis, particularly between soil and climate. These relationships are investigated using a case study on drought risk for agriculture in Scotland, which is currently considered less significant than wetness-related issues. The impact of drought risk is assessed using an established empirical system for land capability linking indicator crops with water availability. This procedure is facilitated by spatial interpolation of climate and soil profile data to provide soil moisture deficits and plant available water on a regular 1-km grid. To evaluate potential impacts of future climate change, land capability classes are estimated using both large-scale ensemble (multi-simulation) data from the HadRM3 regional climate model and local-scale weather generator data (UKCP09) derived from multiple climate models. Results for the case study suggest that drought risk is likely to have a much more significant influence on land use in the future. This could potentially act to restrict the range of crops grown and hence reduce land capability in some areas unless strategic-level adaptation measures are developed that also integrate land use systems and water resources with the wider environment.

关键词： 国际合作   农业科技   旱区农业   论坛   杨凌   气候变化   资源利用   持续发展  

摘要： 2010年11月1-3日，由中国教育部、国家外国专家局和陕西省人民政府主办，西北农林科技大学、陕西省外国专家局、杨凌农业高新技术产业示范区管委会承办的2010杨凌国际农业科技论坛在西北农林科技大学成功举办，杨凌国际农业科技论坛自2007年至今已成功举办4届。论坛为国内外同行积极参与和分享世界农业和农业科教领域的新理论、新技术、新成果提供了重要机会和交流平台，对于我国农业院校和科研机构进一步拓宽国际合作领域、丰富合作内容、提升合作水平具有重要意义并产生了积极影响。

关键词： 气候变化   农业可持续发展   适应技术   应对措施  

摘要： 气候变化对全球农业发展带来挑战。在气候变暖的趋势下,极端天气不断出现。气候变化增加了我国农业环境的敏感性和脆弱性。局部干旱高温加重,农作物胁迫现象严重、农业气象灾害频发、农业生态环境恶化,粮食安全问题明显,对农业可持续发展造成严重影响。本文提出从适应气候变化的视角选择合理农业技术,从缓和气候变化影响上提出应对建议措施。

关键词： 气候变化   生长度日   低温度日   高温度日   双季稻   时空特征  

摘要： 基于江西省地面气象资料和农业气象试验站数据,分析了江西省双季稻生育期的变化趋势,并利用生长度日(GDD)、低温度日(CDD)和高温度日(HDD)对1981—2007年江西省水稻各生育期热量资源的变化趋势进行分析.结果表明:气候变暖背景下,江西省水稻生长季平均气温、平均最低气温和平均最高气温均呈升高趋势,引起双季稻生长季缩短,其中,营养生长期日数减少最明显,而生殖生长期延长;生长度日和高温度日均增加,低温度日减少.研究期间,江西省双季稻有效热量资源增加,低温风险减少,但高温风险增多;江西省水稻有效热量资源的空间变化特征表现为东北部的增幅大于西南部,南部的低温风险大于北部,中部的高温风险最大.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   措施  

摘要： 通过分析近50年来巴彦的气温、降水、积温资料,得出气温呈明显的增温趋势、积温增加、降水略有下降,气候向干暖方向发展,并着重分析了这些变化对巴彦作物种植结构、作物生长发育及农业生态环境的有利和不利影响,提出了为适应这种变化,达到农业增产增收的应对措施。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气候资源   开发应用   研究  

摘要： 应用开封市近60年的气象、作物生育期、粮食产量和农业气象试验数据,采用数理统计分析研究全球气候变暖背景下的区域气候、农业气候资源、粮食产量、作物生育期变化及其相互关系,结果表明:区域气候以冬半年为主整体变暖,近二十多年变暖加速;农业气候资源量增加,农业气候产量提高;作物生长发育加快,春季开始生长发育时间提前,秋冬季停止生长时间延后,全年作物有效生长时间延长;粮食产量在气候变暖和农业科技进步、生产方式改进等因素的共同作用下不断增长.结合田间农业气象试验和生产实践调查,提出了农业生产主动适应气候变暖,趋利避害,开发利用气候资源五项措施:调整农业结构,提高复种指数;延长作物生长发育和农业生产时间;扩大种植面积;提高农业科技水平;改善农业生产条件.最后通过讨论,提出了农业生产主动适应气候变暖,趋利避害,利大于弊的观点.

摘要： The present paper provides a geographically scaled analysis of adaptation to climate change using adoption of agricultural systems observed across Africa. Using c. 9000 farm surveys, spatial logit models were applied to explain observed agricultural system choices by climate variables after accounting for soils, geography and other household characteristics. The results reveal that strong neighbourhood effects exist and a spatial re-sampling and bootstrapping approach can remove them. The crops-only system is adopted most frequently in the lowland humid forest, lowland sub-humid, mid-elevation sub-humid Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) and in the highlands in the east and in southern Africa. Integrated farming is favoured in the lowland dry savannah, moist savannah and semi-arid zones in West Africa and eastern coastal zones. A livestock-only system is favoured most in the mid/high-elevation moist savannahs located in southern Africa. Under a hot and dry Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) scenario, the crops-only system should move out from the currently favoured regions of humid zones in the lowlands towards the mid-/high elevations. It declines by more than 5% in the lowland savannahs. Integrated farming should increase across all the AEZs by as much as 5%, but less so in the deserts or in the humid forest zones in the mid-/high elevations. A livestock-only system should increase by 2-5% in the lowland semi-arid, dry savannah and moist savannah zones in the lowlands. Adaptation measures should be carefully scaled, up or down, considering geographic and ecological differentials as well as household characteristics, as proposed in the present study.