关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   影响  

摘要： 现代农业的发展依然会受到气候变化因素的影响引发各类病虫害,降低农产品产量与质量,需引起农业部门的高度关注。依据各地区实际情况,结合具体影响因素与问题,制定完善的防治方案与措施,并全面落实到农业种植与管理领域中,逐渐提高农业气象灾害预防水平与能力,满足现代化农业可持续发展要求。

关键词： agricultural practice   climate change   first-order difference multiple regression   latitude-dependent effects   northeast China   soybean yield  

摘要： BACKGROUND Although climate change and agricultural practices have non-negligible impacts on crop yields, their quantitative contributions to soybean yields remain unclear. First-order difference multiple regression was used to determine the respective contributions of climate change and agricultural practice to changes in soybean yields at station level from 1981 to 2010 in northeast China. RESULTS From 1981 to 2010, the soybean yields at 87% of the stations were increasing with an average 41.18 kg ha year(-1) change trend in northeast China. The individual impacts of climate change and agricultural practice on soybean yield were -0.33% to 0.58% year(-1) and -3.3% to 7.89% year(-1), respectively. The sensitivity of the soybean yield to climatic factors was related to latitude, and yields at high-latitude stations were positively correlated with temperature but negatively correlated with accumulated sunshine hours. Climate change contributed -24% to 38% to the trend in soybean yield, and the temperature had the greatest effect of all the climatic factors. CONCLUSION The contribution of agricultural practices was greater than that of climate change, counteracting the adverse effects of climate change and even affecting the direction of soybean yield changes. In adaptive decision making, priority should be given to management measures that have less impact on the environment, such as breeding new varieties adapted to specific latitudes, thus promoting the sustainable production of soybeans. (c) 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

关键词： Climate change   Livelihood vulnerability   Driving factors   Coastal agricultural livelihood   Adaptation   Bangladesh  

摘要： Understanding the spatial variation of agricultural livelihood vulnerability to climate change is crucial for developing adaptation strategies in the future, something that has only been seldom done so far in developing economies like Bangladesh. To this end, we developed an integrated vulnerability index (IVI) based on the IPCC framework for analyzing and mapping the vulnerability of agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh. The IVI was calculated as a function of three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We used 45 indicators from nationally comparable and reliable datasets to conduct the research. Besides, a socio-economic livelihood vulnerability index (SELVI) was developed on the basis of sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators and displayed in a scatter diagram in order to identify the socio-economically more vulnerable districts of coastal Bangladesh. A circumplex chart was used to disaggregate the normalized indices of sensitivity and adaptive capacity components, allowing the researcher to discover the factors that cause and mitigate the vulnerability. Using the IVI information, a vulnerability map was created that revealed that Patuakhali, Noakhali, Bhola, and Barguna districts in the exposed central coastal region were the topmost vulnerable districts, reflecting the fact that the agricultural livelihoods of 7.3 million people were highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The geographical diversity in salt intrusion, river-bank erosion, dependence ratio, crop yield, literacy, the density of physicians in the hospital, disaster-resistant houses, shelter facilities, and irrigated farming areas contributed to the diverse coastal agricultural livelihood vulnerability.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   山西沁水   1957—2019年  

摘要： 本文利用1957—2019年沁水县气温、降水等气象资料,基于气候统计原理,对沁水县气候变化趋势及其对农业生产的影响进行了分析。结果表明:1957—2019年沁水县气温上升趋势明显,气候倾向率为0.10℃/10 a;气温年代际变化显著,21世纪后气温明显上升;春、冬季增温尤其明显,夏季气温降低;≥0℃积温增加18℃/10 a,粮食作物春播期提前,秋播期推迟,作物生长期延长;冬、春季热量资源增加,有利于冬小麦生长,春季小麦返青、果树萌动等发育期提前;年降水量波动较大,且呈下降趋势,降水量的减少主要集中在春季和秋季,夏季降水略有增加,冬季降水变化不明显,作物生长期内降水明显减少,干旱发生频率增加;气候变化对沁水县作物生长、产量等均有一定的影响。

关键词： 气候智慧型农业   农业生产总值   甲烷排放量   一氧化二氮排放量  

摘要： 农业、林业和其他土地利用(AFOLU)类别的排放量占全球温室气体排放量的24%,其中主要为甲烷和一氧化二氮。文章从农业甲烷、一氧化二氮排放量对农业产值影响进行了回归分析,得出结论:气候智能型农业对中国经济发展起到积极影响,对气候变化起到有效缓解的作用。

关键词： 康保县   降水量   干燥度   气温   日照时数   气候变化  

摘要： 为了探求康保县近年来的气候变化特征,利用一元线性回归方程等数理统计方法,分析了康保县1961—2019年的降水、气温和日照情况。结果表明:1997—2019年康保县的年降水量呈上升趋势,1997—2013年的干燥度呈下降趋势,近23年的降水量和干燥度的发展趋势有利于农业生产;1961—2019年康保县的年平均气温和冬季极端最低气温均呈上升趋势,有利于大部分农作物生长和玫瑰等灌木的顺利越冬;康保县日照充足,2006—2019年的日照时数呈上升趋势;康保县雨热同季,月降水量和月平均气温的最大值均出现在7月。近年来,利用康保县的气候变化特征,逐步引进了玫瑰、枸杞和藜麦等经济作物,取得了一定的经济效益和社会效益。

关键词： Adaptation   agriculture   behavioral response   climate change   growing season   inputs   Q12   Q16   Q54  

摘要： Recent studies have shown that climate change will impose severe challenges on agriculture with profound implications. Although some hypothetical simulations have suggested that an optimal re-arrangement of the growing season can substantially mitigate yield losses under future climate, no causal estimate has been provided on quantifying the extent to which farmers are adapting through growing-season adjustments. Using a novel microlevel data with detailed crop progress information in China over 1993-2013, we show that both planting dates and growing season lengths significantly respond to contemporaneous temperature and precipitation. Our estimates suggest that, for a median site in our sample, the adaptive behavior in growing season adjustments can lead to a two to six days earlier planting date and another three to six days shorter growing season by the end of this century. These induced adjustments can avoid up to 9% of the crop damages caused by climate change. However, our empirical analysis does not find clear evidence of long-run response or accompanied input adjustments, suggesting potential for developing policies and tools to further aid the adaptive process.

关键词： Climate change impacts   Climate adaptation   Climate policy   Stakeholder involvement   Cluster analysis  

摘要： As ongoing research efforts contribute to elucidating the consequences of climate change as well as adaptation and mitigation options, aligning the current research knowledge with stakeholder opinions and perceptions remains critical for adopting effective climate change policies. This paper utilizes an interactive survey to (1) address the aforementioned gap in studies involving three groups of stakeholders and opinion makers and (2) perform a comparative primary study of the climate change assumptions, risk perceptions, policy preferences, observations, and knowledge of Czech farmers, governmental policy-makers and researchers. This study shows that the stakeholder groups agree that the climate is clearly changing, attribute this change mostly to man-made causes and expect the negative effects to either prevail or be unevenly geographically distributed. The large majority of all three groups consider unmitigated climate change a major threat even by 2050 and agree that preparing in advance is the best sectoral strategy. Importantly, while investment in adaptation measures is considered the most efficient tool for accelerating the implementation of adaptation measures, the CAP and EU rules (as valid in 2016) are believed to hinder such measures. The results of this study have ramifications for the wider region of Central Europe.

关键词： 农业文本翻译   词句优化   逻辑重现   能源消耗   目的论  

摘要： 能源、环境和农业三者息息相关。如何应对能源消费与农业发展不平衡问题对人类的生存与发展至关重要。然而,我国农业发展与能源消耗之间的关系尚未得到足够的重视,在这一领域的研究相对不足。《气候变化下的农业能源》一书主要介绍了农业发展与能源消费之间的关系,对我国资源节约型农业发展具有借鉴意义。在此背景下,译者选择该书作为翻译材料。 所选文本属于信息型文本,文中大量使用专业术语和名词化结构,句式上被动句和复杂句较多,此外,该文本篇章结构严谨,语义严密。对词句翻译进行优化,同时重现原文的逻辑:1)在词汇层面上,译者运用词义选择法和词性转换法分别对专业术语和名词化结构进行了翻译,以优化表达;2)在语句层面上,作者将原文中部分被动句翻译为汉语的主动句和无主句,并利用拆分法和重组法对复杂句进行了翻译,增强译文的可读性;3)在篇章层面上,作者采用保留、增加和删减原文衔接手段等方法以实现译文的逻辑性。在目的论的指导下,译者最大限度地优化了词句的翻译并实现了篇章逻辑的重现。 此次翻译实践将是对国内相关研究的补充,可以使目标读者对农业发展与能源消费之间的关系有较为系统的了解,同时,也将为从事或有兴趣从事农业翻译和能源翻译的人员提供参考。

关键词： 气候变化   阿德尔   气候变量   农业生产  

摘要： 巴基斯坦易受气候变化的影响,极端气候条件给粮食安全带来了巨大威胁。本文使用1960年至2020年的时间序列数据,利用ARDL方法对气候变量(如降雨、二氧化碳排放、土地、平均、最高和最低温度)影响农业生产的方向与程度进行实证检验。格兰杰因果检验表明,气候变量对农业生产存在单向因果关系。此外,实证分析表明,温度和二氧化碳对农业生产产生了显著的积极影响,即温度、降雨量、二氧化碳排放量是刺激农业生产的关键投入。当我们将平均、最高和最低温度、降雨量、二氧化碳排放量作为气候变化变量扩充基本模型时,结果表明二氧化碳排放量、平均、最高和最低温度显着影响农业生产,降雨量、土地、二氧化碳排放量与农业生产之间没有相关性。