关键词： 气候变化   中国   农业气候资源  

摘要： 利用中国558个气象台站1961—2007年地面气象观测资料,分析了不同区域农业气候资源变化的差异,并分析和比较了1961—1980年(时段Ⅰ)和1981—2007年(时段Ⅱ)的农业气候资源变化特征.结果表明:与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ中国年均气温增加了0.6℃,喜凉作物生长期内≥0℃积温和喜温作物生长期内≥10℃积温分别平均增加123.3和125.9℃.d;1961—2007年,年均气温增幅最大的区域是东北地区,喜温作物生长期内≥10℃积温增幅最大的是华南地区.对全国而言,与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ在全年、喜凉和喜温作物生长期内日照时数分别减少了125.7、32.2和53.6h;1961—2007年,长江中下游地区年日照时数的减幅最多,喜凉和喜温作物生长期内日照时数减少量最大的地区分别是华北和华南地区;在全年、喜凉和喜温作物生长期内,中国的降水量和参考作物蒸散量总体均表现为减少趋势,其中,华北地区在全年、喜凉和喜温作物生长期内降水量的减幅均最大,长江中下游地区参考作物蒸散量在全年和喜温作物生长期内的减幅最大,西北地区参考作物蒸散量在喜凉作物生长期内的减幅最大.研究期间,中国气候在全年和喜温作物生长期内总体表现为暖干趋势,其中,喜温作物生长期内西南、华北和东北地区为暖干趋势,长江中下游、西北和华南地区为暖湿趋势,喜凉作物生长期内华北地区为暖干趋势,西北地区为暖湿趋势.

关键词： 气候变化   农业   粮食产量   影响研究  

摘要： 总结了国内外学者对气候变化对我国农业影响的研究结果,鉴于我国人口增长对粮食需求量的增加,重点研究了气候变化对我国粮食产量的影响。结果表明,在不同区域以及应用不同的研究方法所得到的结果并不相同,这与研究方法、研究假设的场景及研究区域均有一定的关系。同时,农业发展还受到政策因素和科学技术的作用,在未来的模拟研究中如何去掉这两者对农业产量变化的影响,以及考虑到农业生物对气候变化的适应性,模拟研究中模型与参数的使用性与敏感性的问题,将会得到更加准确的结果。

关键词： CLIMATIC changes   WATER supply -- Management   WATER resources development   IRRIGATION -- Management   CROPPING systems  

摘要： Climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategies were assessed using an application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system developed for the Sacramento River basin and Delta export region of the San Joaquin Valley. WEAP is an integrated rainfall/runoff, water resources systems modeling framework that can be forced directly from time series of climatic input to estimate water supplies (watershed runoff) and demands (crop evapotranspiration). We applied the model to evaluate the hydrologic implications of 12 climate change scenarios as well as the water management ramifications of the implied hydrologic changes. In addition to evaluating the impacts of climate change with current operations, the model also assessed the impacts of changing agricultural management strategies in response to a changing climate. These adaptation strategies included improvements in irrigation technology and shifts in cropping patterns towards higher valued crops. Model simulations suggested that increasing agricultural demand under climate change brought on by increasing temperature will place additional stress on the water system, such that some water users will experience a decrease in water supply reliability. The study indicated that adaptation strategies may ease the burden on the water management system. However, offsetting water demands through these approaches will not be enough to fully combat the impacts of climate change on water management. To adequately address the impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies will have to include fundamental changes in the ways in which the water management system is operated.

关键词： Biomass   Bioenergy potential   Climate change   Food   Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP)   Material flow analysis (MFA)  

摘要： There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a "food first" approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO2 on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y(-1), depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply. (C) 20

关键词： 岷江上游   干旱河谷   气候变化   农业发展   适应性对策  

摘要： 岷江上游干湿季节分明,在局地焚风效应的影响下,还出现干旱河谷的隐域性分异现象,农业也呈现立体分布格局。对岷江上游干旱气候变化对农业发展的潜在影响进行了分析,提出以集约农业技术推广建立干旱河谷生态农业区、优化土地利用格局,采用科学整地方式,构建生态农业推广技术保障体系和合理规划居民用地的岷江上游干旱河谷农业适应性对策。

关键词： 气候变化   农业   影响   应对  

摘要： 农业是气候变化最敏感脆弱的领域之一,直接受制于气候变化与气象要素。未来气候变化与气象要素时空性与振荡性的加剧,需对农业生产系统全方位影响做因地制宜、因时制宜全方位多层次应对。气候变化带来很多影响,需积极开展农业生产系统性减缓、适应应对策略和农业技术研究,全面理清农业应对气候变化的科学思绪和国家农业扶持政策。综合运用多学科理论方法,开展气候变化对农业生产影响机理和应对机制的系统构成和集成研究,更科学更合理地指导气候变化下的农业生产与积极有效应对,为农业可持续发展和粮食安全献策。

关键词： 宁夏自治区   农业生产   气候变化   风蚀地貌   黄土地貌   流水侵蚀   剥蚀   干旱  

摘要： 宁夏自治区地处西北内陆，北部和中部以干旱剥蚀、风蚀地貌为主，南部以流水侵蚀的黄土地貌为主，境内地形南高北低，而气温则呈“南低北高、南寒北暧”的“倒挂”现象。

摘要： 以全球变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化对环境、生态和社会经济系统产生重大影响。适应气候变化在我国可持续发展中占有极其重要的地位，特别反映在农业及相关产业的发展中。趋势性的气候变化和它所带来的灾害，通过改变水分（水资源）和热量条件，

关键词： Comparative advantage   Climate change   Broadacre agriculture  

摘要： Australia has long been a major exporter of the products of broadacre agriculture, a production system well suited to the economic and climatic conditions of the country. Presumably, it holds a comparative advantage in these products, among which grain crops and grazing livestock predominate. However, the future plausibility of this proposition is sensitive to the projected impacts of climate change. This article develops a framework to quantify the future patterns of comparative advantage in broadacre agriculture, given the projections of several global climate models. We find empirical support for the conventional wisdom, and note substantial resilience and robustness in Australia's comparative advantage under a number of scenarios.