关键词： 盐城市   气候变化   农业   作物产量  

摘要： 对盐城地区7个气象观测站1961—2010年的气温、降水和日照等气象资料进行统计分析,分析了盐城市近50年的气候变化特征。主要的变化表现为温度呈明显上升趋势,降水略有减少,日照呈明显下降趋势;同时讨论了气候变化对农业生产的一些有利影响和不利影响,为合理利用变化了的农业气候资源提出了对策和建议,从而减少不利因素带来的影响。

关键词： 作物模型   气候情景   气候模式   脆弱性  

摘要： 概述了我国在未来气候变化下主要粮食作物(水稻,小麦,玉米)的模型模拟研究的概况,主要包括粮食产量和敏感性、脆弱性研究。作物模型与气候模式相结合的模型模拟研究是目前的主流方法。虽然我国的模型模拟研究取得了一定的进步,但当前研究所用的作物模型大多是国外的模型,国内的模型模拟水平还有待提高。针对目前研究中存在的问题,认为在气候模式本身、温室气体排放情景、应用技术的不确定性、作物生长模拟模型和农业气候变化的脆弱性等方面应进行重点研究,为准确评价气候变化对我国农业生产的可持续发展提供理论依据。

关键词： 气候变化   影响   农业开发   研究   宁夏  

ISBN: (纸本)9787552501087

摘要： 本选题分7章，系统介绍了宁夏农业综合开发应对气候变化的实践和取得的成效，并结合宁夏农业综合开发应对气候变化的缺陷性分析和脆弱性评价研究，以及气候变化对宁夏中部干旱带农业生产潜力的影响分析研究，提出了宁夏农业综合开发适应气候变化的对策和建议。

关键词： 云南气候变化   云南农业   影响   对策  

摘要： 目前,全球气候变化之于全球环境与可持续发展的影响问题,已成为人们普遍关注的最主要问题之一,被世界各国政府以及公众广泛关注。本文在深入研究云南近几十年气候变化规律和特征的基础上,客观分析解读云南气候变化对云南农业生产的影响,并提出相关解决对策。

关键词： 田阳   气温   气候变化   农业生产对策  

摘要： 通过对田阳县1960—2009年气温的统计,引用气候倾向率、气候趋势系数作分析。结果表明,田阳50a来年平均气温有明显变暖趋势,其增温变暖趋势值持平于全区、略低于全国的平均值。为了应对气候变暖提出了相应的农业生产对策。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   对策建议  

摘要： 为了提高人们认识气候变暖对农业生产的利弊关系,把握影响粮食生产主要气象因子,适时调整农业种植结构,趋利避害,达到粮食高产稳产的目的,依据石羊河流域5个气象站1970—2009年的资料,将资料分为2个阶段1970—1989年,1990—2009年,然后分别统计年、月、春(3—5月)、夏(6—8月)、秋(9—11月)、冬(11—次年2月)四季平均气温、降水、积温、无霜期日数等相关资料进行前后对比分析,结果表明,1990—2009年较1970—1989年,年平均气温升高了1.0℃,升温春季>冬季>夏秋季;年降水增加了5.7 mm,在月季分布上6月减少了7.1 mm,7月增加了4.4 mm,且时空分布不均;同时农耕期的有效积温明显增多,无霜期日数增加,使农业种植结构发生了变化,玉米、葡萄、棉花等喜温作物种植面积进一步扩大,春小麦、春油菜等喜凉作物种植面积逐年减少,小麦收获后剩余积温增加,热量对套种、复种品种的限制作用大幅降低,使当地农业生产由过去一年一熟朝着一年两熟的趋势发展。

关键词： 农业   气候资源   气候变化   响应  

摘要： 为了揭示全球气候变化背景下湖南农业气候资源的变化特征。利用湖南省97个台站1960—2010年逐日气象观测资料,在进行均一性检验和订正的基础上,分析湖南省农业气候资源时间、空间变化趋势及其差异。结果表明:湖南气温与全球气温变化趋势一致,呈现以变暖为主要特征的气候变化,相对应的热量资源也呈现为显著增多的变化趋势,以活动积温对气候变暖响应最敏感;湖南降水量无显著趋势变化,但在不同季节、不同地区的变化趋势差异较大,冬季湘北地区呈显著增多趋势,春季湘西地区呈显著减少趋势,夏季湘中地区呈显著增多趋势,秋季湘西南地区呈显著减少趋势;日照时数呈现以夏季显著减少为主要特征的变化趋势,减少幅度最大的地区位于湘江中下游地区。气候变化导致湖南省农业气候资源发生变化,进而影响到农业生产布局和结构,需合理利用气候资源,提高农业适应气候变化的能力。

关键词： Adoption   Climate change   Double hurdle model   Drought tolerant maize   Nigeria   Smallholder farmers  

摘要： Climate change is a major problem undermining agricultural production in Africa. Consequently, efforts are being made to provide farmers with adaptation technologies, but little empirical research exists on the determinants of adopting such technologies. This article addresses this research gap, using the case of drought tolerant maize (DTM) technology in Nigeria. With survey data from 200 farm households and econometric techniques, we explore the determinants of whether to invest and how much to invest in adaptation technology by smallholder farmers. Results from the study indicate that among the key determinants of adoption are access to the technology, complementary inputs, extension services, and climate change information. We also show that off-farm income and wealth status of a household play a significant role in adoption, implying capital constraints;hence, it can be difficult for resource-poor farmers to adopt the technology. Moreover, the farmers identified cost of the technology and complementary inputs, particularly fertilizer as major constraints to adoption. We conclude that while the DTM technology is suitable and important in helping smallholder maize farmers to continue to produce under a changing climate, more support is needed for them to invest in the technology and overcome adoption constraints. Necessary interventions include improving access to information about climate change and the available adaptation technology, timely access to the technology and complementary inputs, and improving access to credit, particularly for the resource-poor farm households.

摘要： To achieve food security for many in low-income and middle-income countries for whom this is already a challenge, especially with the additional complications of climate change, will require early investment to support smallholder farming systems and the associated food systems that supply poor consumers. We need both local and global policy-linked research to accelerate sharing of lessons on institutions, practices and technologies for adaptation and mitigation. This strategy paper briefly outlines how the Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) of the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centres (CGIAR) is working across research disciplines, organisational mandates, and spatial and temporal levels to assist immediate and longer-term policy actions.

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture  

摘要： Human-induced changes in climate will have both common and differentiated impacts. It is now widely accepted that the average mean temperature will increase by 1 to 2 degrees C during this century. Such an increase in temperature will reduce the duration of crops like wheat and thereby reduce yield in Northern India. In contrast, a rise in mean temperature will increase the crop duration resulting in higher yield in the Northern latitudes. Climate change leading to adverse changes in temperature, precipitation and sea level will disturb the food, water and livelihood security systems in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, regions where already widespread hunger prevails. Pest and disease problems will increase. For example, stem rust of wheat may become important in North India, if the mean temperature goes up. Similarly, the advantage of an aphid-free season for raising disease-free seed potato in the plains of North India will be lost. Recourse will have to be taken to true potato seeds. Anticipatory research to checkmate the adverse impact of unfavourable weather is urgently needed. Crop breeding should shift its emphasis from per crop to per-day productivity. Drought and floods codes will have to be developed and implemented. Climate risk management research and training centres should be established in all agro-climatic zones. Gene Banks containing genetic resources for a warming planet should be set-up. Along coastal areas, mangrove and non-mangrove bioshields should be established. Sea water farming using agri-aqua production systems should be popularised. Genetic Gardens of Halophytes should be established. Salinity tolerant varieties of rice and other crops should be developed using recombinant DNA technology where needed. The poor nations and the poor in all nations wills suffer most from climate change, since they do not have the necessary coping capacity. Agricultural research should therefore be tailored to the need for climate resilient farming systems.