关键词： 气候变化   农业生态环境   影响   防御对策  

摘要： 气候变暖已成为气候变化的主要特征。通过对丰都县1959～2006年47年间的观测资料统计分析,结果表明,丰都县80年代前和20世纪80年代后期以后发生了很大的变化,暖冬现象日趋明显,干旱、雾害、冰雹、连阴雨、大风、雷电灾害、病虫害等农业气象灾害发生了相应的变化,主要表现在干旱、雾害、雷电灾害、病虫害等灾害增加;洪涝、霜冻等灾害减少。针对气候变化对气象灾害产生的种种影响,需要人们在防灾减灾中制定相应措施,通过实施植树造林,荒山育草、大搞农田水利建设、积极开展人影作业、加大治污力度、做好农用天气预报气象服务等工作,来达到趋利避害、保障生态环境的安全和农业的可持续发展。

关键词： 农业综合开发项目   应对气候变化   宁夏大学   农业综合开发办公室   农村工作委员会   全球环境基金   环境委员会   人口资源  

摘要： 2012年5月8日，宁夏农业综合开发办公室在银川召开了全球环境基金赠款适应气候变化农业综合开发项目成果发布会。自治区党委农村工作领导小组办公室、人大农业与农村工作委员会、政府研究室、政协人口资源环境委员会及自治区财政厅、发改委、农牧厅、水利厅、科技厅、民政厅、国土局、林业局、环保局、扶贫办、妇联、气象局、宁夏大学、农科院等单位代表，各新闻媒体记者和全区农发系统代表等230余人参加了发布会。

关键词： 农业综合开发项目   全球环境基金   气候变化   宁夏   人口资源环境   农村工作   委员会   大农业  

摘要： 2012年5月8日，宁夏农业综合开发办在银川召开了全球环境基金赠款适应气候变化农业综合开发项目成果发布会。自治区人大农业与农村工作委员会、政协人口资源环境委员会、党委政研室、政府政研室及16个厅局负责人和全区农发21个单位的代表等共计230余人参会。

关键词： 美国   干旱   农业生产   气候变化   粮食安全  

摘要： 2012年入夏以来,持续发展的旱情致使美国农作物大幅减产、农产品价格持续飙升,美国的经济和社会受到了极大的影响。与此同时,美国大旱对我国这样一个自然灾害频发的农业大国也敲响了警钟。通过分析美国世纪大旱的特点、成因、影响以及气候变化背景下我国农业生产面临的自然灾害频发多发、农业投入品增加等问题,提出应从建立和完善气象监测预警系统,加强以水利为主的农业基础设施建设,加大农业减灾技术研究与推广的投入等角度提升我国农业生产应对气候变化的能力。

关键词： 冬季农业气候   基本特征   影响初探  

摘要： 为了给淮北平原冬季农业生产提供科学依据。利用1955—2010年淮北平原代表站宿州市冬季(12月—次年2月)逐日气候监测资料,采用数理统计方法,研究揭示了冬季农业气候基本要素和相关农业气候指标的演变特征及其对农业的影响。结果表明:(1)55年间,淮北平原冬季气温明显升高,≥0℃的积温明显增多,1986年为冬季气温升高的跃变点,但冬季日照时数减少,年际间冬季降水量波动增大,气象干旱是冬季小麦生产中的主要气象灾害;(2)冬季增暖后,致使冬小麦处于缓慢生长状态,但是冬小麦完成春化阶段的最适宜和适宜的低温天数呈"一少一多"变化态势,以及暖冬促进小麦生育进程相应提前的事实增加了小麦顺利完成春化阶段和后期遭受春霜冻害的风险;小麦育种和引种宜选择春化阶段温度指标范围较宽的品种;(3)虽然冬暖对设施农业生产有利,但是不利于设施农业生产的弱光照天数在增加;同时,现有结构的设施农业生产,在冬季增暖背景下仍然存在较大的低温冻害风险,生产中应注意防范强低温,并科学设计温棚结构来应对日照时数不足。安徽淮北平原冬季气候增暖趋势明显,冬季光、热、水等农业气候基本要素和积温、极端低温、弱光照等农业气候指标呈现诸多变化,对冬季农业生产的影响有利有弊。

关键词： Agricultural production   Climate change   Mathematical models   Environmental impact   Land use  

摘要： Agricultural sectors play a key role in the economics of climate change. Land as an input to agricultural production is one of the most important links between economy and the biosphere, representing a direct projection of human action on the natural environment. Agricultural management practices and cropping patterns exert an enormous effect on biogeochemical cycles, freshwater availability and soil quality. Agriculture also plays an important role in emitting and storing greenhouse gases. To consistently investigate climate policy and future pathways for the economic and natural environment, a realistic representation of agricultural land use is essential. Top-down Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have increasingly been used for this purpose. CGE models simulate the simultaneous equilibrium in a set of interdependent markets, and are especially suited to analyze agricultural markets from a global perspective. However, modeling agricultural sectors in CGE models is not a trivial task, mainly because of differences in temporal and geographic aggregation scales. This study surveys some proposed modeling strategies and highlights different tradeoffs involved in the various approaches. Coupling of top-down and bottom-up models is found to be the most applicable for comprehensive analysis of agriculture in prism of climate change. However, linking interdisciplinary data, methods and outputs is still the major obstacle to be solved for wide-scale implementation.

关键词： 气候变化   农业影响   气候变暖   不确定性   粮食安全   农业生产   中国  

摘要： 近年来，虽然我圉的气候变暖对农业影响研究取得了较快的进展，得到了一些初步结果，但与国外目前进展状况相比，仍有不小的差距，加之，气候变暖对农业影响存在很多的不确定性。因此，应当把适应气候变化作为中国应对气候变化的优先战略，把促进农业生产和保障粮食安全作为中国应对气候变化的首要任务。

关键词： 沈阳地区   设施农业   气候变化   气象灾害   对策  

摘要： 为了设施农业生产可持续发展趋利避害,研究了气候变化对设施农业生产的影响及气象灾害的对策,为当地设施农业的发展提供了科学依据。利用沈阳地区近40年气象观测资料,采用常规数理统计方法,分析沈阳地区蔬菜大棚生产期气候变化,并探讨气象灾害天气的应对措施。结果表明:近40年来,沈阳地区冬季日照时间短,平均每天只有4.6 h,对大棚生产不利,日照时数存在微弱的减少趋势;蔬菜大棚生产期气温倾向率0.371℃/10年,气温虽呈升高趋势,但波动幅度较大,让生产管理难以控制;较寒冷期(11月至次年3月)降水量、阴天日数呈增加趋势,对蔬菜大棚生产影响较大;低温寡照阴天是该地区冬季特点,对发展蔬菜大棚产业不利,尤其冷冬年份大棚生产受到限制。

关键词： Water   Economics   Irrigation   Salinity   Climate change   Water scarcity  

摘要： Increased irrigation has been identified as an important potential adaptation to meet growing world food demand. Yet many of the world's major irrigation regions are in arid and semi-arid regions that face climate change projections of hotter and drier weather. A growing body of analysis assesses irrigated agriculture impacts of climate change in such regions. Most published literature focuses on reductions in the mean-levels of freshwater supplies: less information is available on the potential impacts from changes in the reliability and quality of those diminishing water supplies. This article investigates the combined impacts on irrigated agricultural food supply from reduced, more variable and more saline water supply for a representative semi-arid irrigation region. Results indicate that understanding the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural production requires an understanding of not only how production may adapt to changes in mean water supplies, but also how it may respond to changes in water supply variability and salinity. We illustrate, using an Australian, Murray Darling Basin semi-arid region example, that ignoring these combined water-related climate effects lead to results that overlook thresholds where the structure of production and cost incurred fundamentally change above certain levels of variability and salinity. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Adaptation   climate change   crop suitability   indirect impacts   maize   South Africa   species distribution modelling   wheat  

摘要： Aim: Ecosystems face numerous well-documented threats from climate change. The well-being of people also is threatened by climate change, most prominently by reduced food security. Human adaptation to food scarcity, including shifting agricultural zones, will create new threats for natural ecosystems. We investigated how shifts in crop suitability because of climate change may overlap currently protected areas (PAs) and priority sites for PA expansion in South Africa. Predicting the locations of suitable climate conditions for crop growth will assist conservationists and decision-makers in planning for climate change. Location: South Africa. Methods: We modelled climatic suitability in 2055 for maize and wheat cultivation, two extensively planted, staple crops, and overlaid projected changes with PAs and PA expansion priorities. Results: Changes in winter climate could make an additional 2 million ha of land suitable for wheat cultivation, while changes in summer climate could expand maize suitability by up to 3.5 million ha. Conversely, 3 million ha of lands currently suitable for wheat production are predicted to become climatically unsuitable, along with 13 million ha for maize. At least 328 of 834 (39%) PAs are projected to be affected by altered wheat or maize suitability in their buffer zones. Main conclusions: Reduced crop suitability and food scarcity in subsistence areas may lead to the exploitation of PAs for food and fuel. However, if reduced crop suitability leads to agricultural abandonment, this may afford opportunities for ecological restoration. Expanded crop suitability in PA buffer zones could lead to additional isolation of PAs if portions of newly suitable land are converted to agriculture. These results suggest that altered crop suitability will be widespread throughout South Africa, including within and around lands identified as conservation priorities. Assessing how climate change will affect crop suitability near PAs is a first step towards