关键词： 播种面积   灌溉需水量   Penman-Monteith公式   气候变化   水资源供需  

摘要： 我国是世界上水资源严重短缺的国家之一，在西北干旱区水资源短缺的形势更加严峻。西北干旱区农田灌溉消耗了水资源的绝大部分，近些年来随着社会经济的发展、人口的激增，耕地面积进一步扩大，对水资源的需求也进一步增加。大量抽取地表水灌溉引发了一系列的生态环境问题，导致河流断流、荒漠植被生态系统遭到破坏、沙漠侵袭，进而又制约了农业的发展。水资源已经成为西北干旱区社会经济发展的主要限制因素。因此研究农业灌溉需水量，分析其时空变化规律，对区域水资源安全以及农业可持续发展方面具有重要意义。 本文在充分收集数据资料的基础上，通过Penman-Monteith公式，结合作物生育期以及作物系数等数据计算了西北干旱区主要作物的单位面积需水量，然后通过对站点数据的空间插值以及对统计数据的空间化模拟1989年以来西北干旱区主要作物的灌溉需水量，并对流域水资源安全做了简单评价。这些研究的结果可以为西北干旱区水资源合理配置以及水资源规划等提供理论参考。 研究结果表明：近50年来，气候变暖导致西北干旱区热量条件得到改善，为农作物种植结构的调整提供了很好的热量资源，同时气候变暖也导致作物单位面积需水量显著增加。计算结果显示，温度每增加1℃，棉花需水量增加18mm，小麦、玉米增加13mm，且不同地区作物需水受温度增加的影响存在差异。作物需水量按其强度排列，依次为甜菜＞棉花＞玉米＞小麦＞油料，空间分布上表现为河西＞北疆＞南疆。 2010年灌溉需水量达到443亿m3，而河西地区仅46.5亿m3。相比1989年，多数地区灌溉需水量都呈增加趋势，总灌溉需水量增加136亿m3。灌溉需水增加的地区与棉花面积迅速增加的地区基本一致。灌溉需水量高峰期主要集中在6、7、8月份，南疆种植制度的差异使得存在5月和8月的双峰值。 就流域水资源安全来看，尽管叶尔羌河、黑河、开孔河流域地表水资源年尺度上基本满足作物灌溉，但是仍存在季节性缺水。自1989年以来多数流域水资源短缺的形势进一步加剧。 未来各GCM模式模拟的气温和降水差异较大，其中MPIECHAM5模拟气温偏低，而MIROC3.2模拟降水偏高。2046～2075年该区年均温将增加0.1～2.3℃，降水增加-39～145mm。未来IWR增加-1.9～68.4亿m3，其中北疆北部以及河西地区变化不大，而未来南疆以及天山北部地区IWR将显著增加。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   渭南市  

摘要： 以渭南市为实证研究对象,采用渭南市1961～2010年年均降水数据和1959～2009年年均温数据,运用Excel和相关的数理统计方法,分析渭南市气候变化及其对农业生产的影响,并提出了相应的农业措施,以促进渭南市农业生产对气候变化的响应。

关键词： 区域水资源   农业气象灾害   气候变化   莆田市   社会经济可持续发展   特征对   社会经济发展   福建沿海地区  

摘要： 使用平均气温和降水量气象资料,对30年来莆田市的水资源气候变化特征进行了分析,阐述了水资源不同的分布特征对于干旱和洪涝等农业气象灾害的影响,提出了农业生产中的减灾、防灾建议,对于指导农业生产提高灾害防御能力有重要意义。

关键词： 气候变化   农业   发展对策  

摘要： 【目的】进一步了解吉尔吉斯斯坦的自然环境、气候变化、农业生产等发展现状。【方法】对吉尔吉斯斯坦的气候、土地、土壤、农业等状况进行全面的实地调研和各州农业大学的考察学习,并与吉尔吉斯斯坦气候、土壤、土地利用、农业等方面的专家进行深入交流。【结果】对吉尔吉斯斯坦在气候变化趋势下,农业发展过程中遇到问题提出指导意见。【结论】为吉尔吉斯斯坦需重点开展的农业合作领域和发展提出建议。

关键词： 气候变化   巴中市   农业生产   对策  

摘要： 在研究巴中地区近31年气候变化特征的基础上,分析气温变化、水分特征、光照特征对农业生产的影响,并得出巴中市的农业发展必须加快完善农业基础设施、制定应对气候变化策略,以服务于巴中市农业发展。

关键词： 农业气候资源   变化特征   趋势   鲁西南  

摘要： 根据鲁西南地区1961—2010气象资料,应用气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall突变检测法,分析了该地区春、夏、秋、冬四季及年际的光、热、水等主要农业气候资源变化特征。结果表明:研究区年均气温、≥0℃积温、≥10℃积温呈上升趋势,其气候倾向率分别为0.16℃/10a、53.8(℃.d)/10a、83.5(℃.d)/10a,其中冬季升温最为明显,其次是春季,并在20世纪90年代的中期发生突变,无霜期以1.9 d/10a的速率延长,表明自突变后热量资源处于丰富阶段;光照资源呈极显著的减少趋势,尤其以夏、秋、冬季的减少趋势最为显著,光照资源在20世纪80年代的中期发生突变,其中太阳辐射量和日照时数减少的倾向率分别为208.4MJ/(m2.10a)、112.1 h/10a;年降水量总体变化不明显,呈略微增加趋势,年际和季节间分布不均,春季和秋季降水呈减少趋势,夏季和冬季呈增加趋势,年内降水分布不均,暴雨日数增多。鲁西南地区总体的农业气候变化存在以"热量资源丰富,光照资源欠缺、水资源不充足"为主要特点的暖干化趋势。

关键词： Socioeconomic factors   Climate change   Sustainable agriculture   Terrestrial ecosystems  

摘要： Policy measures regarding adaptation to climate change include efforts to adjust socio-economic and ecologic systems. Colombia has undertaken various measures in terms of climate change mitigation and adaptation since becoming a party of the Kyoto protocol in 2001 and a party of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995. The first national communication to the UNFCCC stated how Colombian agriculture will be severely impacted under different emission scenarios and time frames. The analyses in this document further support that climate change will severely threaten the socioeconomics of Colombian agriculture. We first query national data sources to characterize the agricultural sector. We then use 17 Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to quantify how Colombian agricultural production may be affected by climate change, and show the expected changes to years 2040-2069 ("2050") under the A2 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A2) and the overall trends in both precipitation and temperature to 2100. We then evaluate expected changes within different regions and measure the proportion of area affected within each crop's distributional range. By 2050, climatic change in Colombia will likely impact 3.5 million people, 14 % of national GDP corresponding to agriculture, employment of 21 % of the population, agro-industries, supply chains, and food and nutritional security. If no adaptation measures are taken, 80 % of crops would be impacted in more than 60 % of their current areas of cultivation, with particularly severe impacts in high value perennial and exportable crops. Impacts also include soil degradation and organic matter losses in the Andes hillsides;likely flooding in the Caribbean and Pacific coasts;niche losses for coffee, fruit, cocoa, and bananas;changes in prevalence of pests and diseases;and increases in the vulnerabilities of non-technically developed smallho

关键词： Adaptation   Agriculture   Assessment   Climate scenario   Impacts   Uncertainty  

摘要： To prepare agricultural systems for climate change, scientists need to be able to effectively engage with land managers and policy makers to explore potential solutions. An ongoing challenge in engagement is to distil the complexity of climate-change-management-change interactions in agro-ecological systems to identify responses that are most important for adaptation planning. This paper presents an approach for selecting climate change scenarios to provide a focal point for engaging with stakeholders to evaluate adaptation options and communicate assessment outcomes. We illustrate how scenarios selected with the approach can be used by evaluating climate change impacts and an adaptation option for livestock industries in the north-east Australian rangelands. Climate change impacts on forage production, animal liveweight gain and soil loss are found to track projected climate changes in four pasture communities;increasing by up to 50% and declining by up to 110% in response to doubled atmospheric carbon-dioxide (CO2), 4A degrees C warming, and +20% to -40% changes in mean annual rainfall. The effectiveness of reducing grazing pressure as an adaptation option shows a similar response;resulting in higher forage production (up to 40%), animal liveweight gains (up to 59%) and gross margins (up to 40%), and reduced soil erosion (down by 91%) per hectare relative to the baseline management. The results show that a few key scenarios may be selected to represent the range of global climate model (GCM) projections for use in assessing and communicating impacts and adaptation;simplifying the assessments and allowing limits to the effectiveness of adaptation options to be explored. The approach provides a framework for capturing and communicating trends in climate change impacts and the utility of options, which are required for successful engagement of stakeholders in finding viable adaption responses.

关键词： agriculture   Reinforcement   Gender   climate change impact   international conference   Malnutrition   Debates   crop losses  

摘要： Climate change impacts are gendered. Many UN and international conferences have constantly highlighted women and their work environment relationships over time and have concluded that environmental change would bring adverse effect on women's livelihood, probably leading to their high stake in adaptation responses to climate change. As it is clear, gender is a cross-cutting issue for different sectors in health, agriculture, livestock, education, etc. and climate change is no exception. Climate change is expected to cause increased crop losses, widespread food and water insecurity, malnourishment and negative health impacts1. Women are much more affected and susceptible to severe malnourishment, particularly in low-income groups. In fact, women aremore sensitive to vulnerable actions posed by climate change in terms of needs, opportunities, access to resources, etc. due to the differences that exist in social settings of varied cultures and norms, particularly among the poorest of the poor in thedeveloping countries. In rural areas, 72% of men and women are affected due to climate change impacts as they all depend on agriculture which is one of the most vulnerable sectors. In such situations, there is a profound need to include social issues with women in the forefront of climate change debates, policies for them to be heard and seen2. With growing concerns on climate change and its impacts affecting food production and livelihood structure, a strong need to integrate gender perspectives into climate change discussions is highly warranted. To add further to the discussion and reinforce learning, some issues related to gender are presented here that have relevance to planning and design of climate-resilient agriculture.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   地理科学   空间格局   敏感性   研究所   中科院   气温  

摘要： 中科院地理科学与资源研究所陶福禄研究组系统地开展了我国四种主要作物水稻．小麦、玉米、大豆对主要气候变量．气温、降雨、辐射以及气候总体的变化趋势敏感性研究，得出了敏感性的空间格局．发现正负影响并存。