关键词： AGRICULTURAL economics   VOLATILITY (Finance)   SUPPLY & demand   EXPORTS   CLIMATIC changes -- Economic aspects   AGRICULTURAL productivity  

摘要： Given global heterogeneity in climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the potential to substantially increase its maize exports to other countries. If global maize production is lower than usual owing to supply shocks in major exporting regions, Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices, even if it also experiences below-trend productivity. Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced trading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect the partners' usual import sources. Future climate predictions suggest that some of Tanzania's trading partners will experience severe dry conditions that may reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania is only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain to countries as climate change increases the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in other countries while simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of these opportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   可持续发展   新疆农八师垦区  

摘要： 为了给新疆农八师垦区农业生产的可持续发展和防灾减灾提供参考,使用该地区气象资料,应用气候倾向率、气候趋势系数等统计方法分析气候变化的同时探讨气候变暖对农业生产的影响。结果表明:气温升高趋势明显,年平均气温倾向率为0.349℃/10a,其中冬半年倾向率为0.446℃/10a,夏半年倾向率为0.293℃/10a;降水量存在增加趋势,年降水量倾向率为15.227mm/10a,其中作物生长季平均降水量倾向率为9.186mm/10a,冬季降水量倾向率为4.716mm/10a;日照时数有微弱增加趋势,年日照总量倾向率为24.861h/10a,作物生长季日照时数倾向率为24.035h/10a;春季倾向率为18.141h/10a。气候变暖增加了该地区热量资源使棉花栽培界限西进北移扩大了种植面积,同时极端气候事件的不稳定性及病虫害加重现状增加了农业对防灾的投入,掌握气候变化规律,适应气候变化调整农业生产,因势利导趋利避害是丰产丰收的保障。

关键词： 宣城市   2011年   气候   农业   分析  

摘要： 为了提高农业生产对气象灾害的防御能力,采用安徽省宣城市2011年气象资料,分析气候变化对农业的不利影响。结果表明,2011年宣城市平均年降水量正常略偏少,宣城、广德、泾县为正距平,其余各县(市)为负距平;入梅、出梅期偏早,梅雨日数较常年偏少1天,全市平均梅雨量较常年偏多。全市年平均气温比常年正常略偏高,高温日数多于常年。主要气象灾害是1月20日大到暴雪及持续低温雨雪冰冻灾害,1—5月出现不同程度的旱害,6月出现暴雨洪涝灾害。气象灾害对农业造成严重损失,但粮油产量比上年增产,气候上属正常略偏好年景。

关键词： Development of climate change scenario   Agricultural risk assessment   General circulation models   Downscaling  

摘要： Climate change presents perhaps the greatest economic and environmental challenge we have ever faced. Climate change and its associated impacts, adaptation and vulnerability have become the focus of current policy, business and research. This paper provides invaluable information for those interested in climate change and its impacts. This paper comprehensively reviews the advances made in the development of regional climate change scenarios and their application in agricultural impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Construction of regional climate change scenarios evolved from the application of arbitrary scenarios to the application of scenarios based on general circulation models (GCMs). GCM-based climate change scenarios progressed from equilibrium climate change scenarios to transient climate change scenarios;from the use of direct GCM outputs to the use of downscaled GCM outputs;from the use of single scenarios to the use of probabilistic climate change scenarios;and from the application of mean climate change scenarios to the application of integrated climate change scenarios considering changes in both mean climate and climate variability.

关键词： 气候变化   影响   农业  

摘要： 利用1957—2010年章丘气象资料,研究气温、降水的年代际、年际变化;结合病虫害、小麦发育期和产量资料等分析了自20世纪90年代以来随着气温显著升高、降水减少及年际变化增大对章丘农业生产造成的不利影响,最后提出了针对气候变化应采取的应对措施和建议。

关键词： 气候变化   特征分析   农业气象灾害   兴仁  

摘要： 通过分析贵州省兴仁县1981~2010年的气象资料，对兴仁县近30a的气温与降水量变化及农业气象灾害发生规律进行了分析，为合理开发气候资料和防灾减灾提供依据。

关键词： 气候变化   低碳农业   农业碳排放   农业碳汇  

摘要： 减缓和适应是人类应对气候变化行动中两种相辅相成的措施。中国农业在应对气候变化中,减缓和适应同等重要:一方面,农业在减缓气候变化中具有独特的作用;另一方面,农业适应气候变化比减缓气候变化更为现实的迫切。积极发展低碳现代农业实现减排增汇,中国农业生态系统可以作为一种非常重要的固碳增汇措施,纳入全球CO2减排措施中去。中国低碳农业在减缓和适应气候变化中具有巨大潜力。

关键词： 气温   降水   变化趋势   农业种植   影响   对策  

摘要： 利用巴彦淖尔地区多年气候资料分析得出:巴彦淖尔地区年平均气温处于增暖趋势,以冬季增温较明显,降水也呈略增趋势。气候变暖使热量资源增加、无霜期延长,有利于扩展农作物种植界限,提高农业产量等,但高温加剧了巴彦淖尔地区干旱等灾害,而且病虫害加剧,应在充分利用气候变暖利于条件的同时积极应对、趋利避害。

关键词： 气候变化   农业发展   影响及对策  

摘要： 我国是农业大国,随着CO2等温室气体浓度的增加,气候变化将使我国农业可持续发展面临严重的挑战。本文详细叙述了气候变化对我国农业生态环境及农业生产的影响,并探讨了相应对策,提出应对气候变化应采取减缓温室气体排放、构建农业循环经济体系、培育高产优质品种、加大农业基础设施建设力度等措施。