关键词： 气候变化   产量   影响   适应   统计模型  

摘要： 从统计模型与作物机理模型的区别与联系出发,介绍了识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的3种主要统计模型,即时间序列模型、截面模型和面板模型;综述了前人在站点和区域(全球、国家、省级、地区、县级)尺度对这一问题的研究进展;总结了应用统计模型识别农业产量对气候变化响应敏感性的4个主要问题,包括时空尺度问题、产量的非气候趋势去除问题、气候要素间的自相关问题和忽略适应措施的问题;最后针对以上主要问题,提出了改进建议及今后研究的发展趋势。

关键词： 气候变化   特色农业   适应  

摘要： 应对气候变化是促进西藏特色农业发展的重要措施之一。目前西藏已采取的适应措施主要集中在农业技术和资金投入两个方面;主要不足表现为农户主动性适应行为没有明显改善和适应气候变化的市场能力相对较弱。为进一步提升西藏特色农业适应气候变化能力,文章建议提高农户非农业收入水平,完善对口支援模式并积极探索巨灾保险机制。

关键词： Climate change   Water resources   Vulnerability   Agriculture   Semiarid regions   Reservoir systems  

摘要： The Limari River basin is one of the most important watersheds in north-central Chile (30 S). Its headwaters lie at the top of the subtropical Andes (> 5;000 m above sea level) and the river flows westward into the Pacific Ocean over a length of approximately 200 km. This basin has a marked snowmelt-driven hydrological regime and, in spite of the arid conditions that characterize this region, holds more than 50,000 ha of highly productive agricultural land thanks to its irrigation infrastructure and three interconnected reservoirs. Like many semiarid regions around the world, north-central Chile is expected to become warmer and drier during the 21st century as a consequence of ongoing anthropogenic climate change. The associated reduction in streamflow, changes in hydrograph timing, and enhanced evapotranspiration will undoubtedly threaten agriculture in the Limari basin and elsewhere in semiarid Chile. In this paper, the effect of temperature and precipitation on surface hydrology, performance of water infrastructure, and irrigation coverage in the Limari basin is investigated by using the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model. WEAP was calibrated by using current climate and agriculture patterns, and then forced with a set of 30-year-long climate scenarios, each of them obtained by adding a temperature and precipitation perturbation to the historical time series. This delta approach allows (1) determination of the sensitivity of selected variables to climate change, and (2) obtaining a projection of the effects in irrigation coverage expected for the near and far future (2010-2040 and 2070-2100, respectively). Both aspects are investigated for agricultural districts with varying access to irrigation infrastructure and groundwater;this exercise highlights the relevance of added storage and innovative conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources for improving the resilience and adaptability of irrigated agriculture in the face of a changing climate. DOI

关键词： AGRICULTURAL implements   CLIMATE change   AGRICULTURAL productivity   WEATHER hazards  

摘要： US and Canadian agricultural lands are being pressed to provide more environmental and economic services, while at the same time their capacity to provide these services under potential climate change (CC) is being questioned (Field et al. 2007; CAST 2011). Producers are already experiencing weather patterns outside of climate norms (e.g., the 2011 droughts in Texas, and flooding along the Missouri River in the United States and along the Red River in Canada) that have had significant impacts on production. Predictions of future climate conditions for the US Midwest include longer growing seasons that could potentially increase crop yields but also increase heat waves, floods, droughts, and insect and weed issues that may then adversely impact production (USGCRP 2009). Climate change drives many stressors and interacts with many nonclimatic stressors. This makes it difficult to forecast outcomes in any general way other than many existing threats to agricultural production, such as erosion and pests, which will most likely be exacerbated under shifting climate (Field et al. 2007; USGCRP 2009). Creating profitable and healthy operations under this unpredictable interplay of factors driven by shifting climate (and, along with it, shifting markets) will be a daunting task. It will be essential that farmers, ranchers, and even communities have a variety of land management options to minimize the risks and maximize services under such uncertain conditions.

关键词： climate change   farm yield   farm income   adaptation practices   coping strategies   Nigeria  

摘要： Climate change affects agriculture in many ways, one of which is its direct impact on food production. This is particularly significant in developing countries, where agriculture is mainly rain-fed, providing employment and income for the majority of the population. This paper, based on data from 400 randomly selected farmers in Enugu and Imo states in South East Nigeria, assesses some effects of climate change and the cost implications of farmers' adaptation practices. Virtually all respondents reported unusual rises in extreme events such as thunderstorms, heavy winds and intense heatwaves;uncertainties at the start of the farming season such as unusual early rains, erratic rainfall and delay in the onset of rain;the incidence of pests, diseases and weeds;and signs of land degradation such as declining soil fertility and the drying up of streams or rivers. The overall impact (on farm yield and income) was significantly higher for Enugu than for Imo, possibly because Enugu has drier weather. The greatest perceived effects of climate change were reduced yield and income, drying up of streams and rivers, reduced storage quality of crops, loss of pastureland and/or vegetation and the destruction of wildlife ecosystems. Coping strategies with a relatively high profitability index were multiple cropping/intercropping, agro-forestry/afforestation, mulching, purchase/harvesting of water for irrigation and the use of resistant varieties. Extension services need to promote appropriate adaptation practices among farmers.

关键词： Adaptation   Adaptive capacity   Agriculture   Climate change   Ethics   Mediterranean region  

摘要： In the coming decades, the Mediterranean region is expected to experience various climate impacts with negative consequences on agricultural systems and which will cause uneven reductions in agricultural production. By and large, the impacts of climate change on Mediterranean agriculture will be heavier for southern areas of the region. This unbalanced distribution of negative impacts underscores the significance and role of ethics in such a context of analysis. Consequently, the aim of this article is to justify and develop an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation in the Mediterranean and to derive the consequent implications for adaptation policy in the region. In particular, we define an index of adaptive capacity for the agricultural systems of the Mediterranean region on whose basis it is possible to group its different sub-regions, and we provide an overview of the suitable adaptation actions and policies for the sub-regions identified. We then vindicate and put forward an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation, highlighting the implications for the Mediterranean region and the limitations of such an ethical framework. Finally, we emphasize the broader potential of ethics for agricultural adaptation policy.

关键词： 现代农业   经验借鉴   低碳   气候变化   美国   生态安全   气候条件   法律法规  

摘要： 低碳农业是在维护全球生态安全、改善全球气候条件背景下产生的现代农业新形态。本文从法律法规、财税政策、科研与推广体系以及市场机制等4个方面介绍了美国低碳农业发展的做法,并指出可供中国借鉴的经验与启示。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生态环境   气温   降水   影响  

摘要： 本文从地区的气候特点和农业生态环境的关系出发,通过对代表乌兰察布地区的五个旗县(四子王旗、化德县、集宁区、凉城县、丰镇市)近四十年气温和降水资料的统计,分析本地区气候变化对农业生态环境的影响,并提出相应的治理对策。

关键词： AGRICULTURAL economics   CONSUMPTION (Economics)   LOW-income countries   INCOME   CLIMATIC changes -- Economic aspects   FOOD security   CALIBRATION  

摘要： Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by region and by income category.

关键词： Adaptation   Climate change   Farm level productivity   Instrumental variables   Rainfall   Ethiopia  

摘要： This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in a typical developing country. The economic implications of climate change are estimated by using both a farm productivity and a Ricardian framework. Data are drawn from about 1,000 farms producing cereal crops in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The thin plate spline method of spatial interpolation was used to predict household specific rainfall and temperature values using meteorological station data collected for 30 years across the regions. We found that climate change adaptation has a significant impact on both farm productivity and farm net revenues. We complement the analysis by providing an estimation of the determinants of adaptation. Extension services (both formal and farmer to farmer), as well as access to credit and information on future climate changes are key drivers of adaptation.