关键词： Adaptation   Agriculture   Assessment   Climate scenario   Impacts   Uncertainty  

摘要： To prepare agricultural systems for climate change, scientists need to be able to effectively engage with land managers and policy makers to explore potential solutions. An ongoing challenge in engagement is to distil the complexity of climate-change-management-change interactions in agro-ecological systems to identify responses that are most important for adaptation planning. This paper presents an approach for selecting climate change scenarios to provide a focal point for engaging with stakeholders to evaluate adaptation options and communicate assessment outcomes. We illustrate how scenarios selected with the approach can be used by evaluating climate change impacts and an adaptation option for livestock industries in the north-east Australian rangelands. Climate change impacts on forage production, animal liveweight gain and soil loss are found to track projected climate changes in four pasture communities;increasing by up to 50% and declining by up to 110% in response to doubled atmospheric carbon-dioxide (CO2), 4A degrees C warming, and +20% to -40% changes in mean annual rainfall. The effectiveness of reducing grazing pressure as an adaptation option shows a similar response;resulting in higher forage production (up to 40%), animal liveweight gains (up to 59%) and gross margins (up to 40%), and reduced soil erosion (down by 91%) per hectare relative to the baseline management. The results show that a few key scenarios may be selected to represent the range of global climate model (GCM) projections for use in assessing and communicating impacts and adaptation;simplifying the assessments and allowing limits to the effectiveness of adaptation options to be explored. The approach provides a framework for capturing and communicating trends in climate change impacts and the utility of options, which are required for successful engagement of stakeholders in finding viable adaption responses.

关键词： agriculture   Reinforcement   Gender   climate change impact   international conference   Malnutrition   Debates   crop losses  

摘要： Climate change impacts are gendered. Many UN and international conferences have constantly highlighted women and their work environment relationships over time and have concluded that environmental change would bring adverse effect on women's livelihood, probably leading to their high stake in adaptation responses to climate change. As it is clear, gender is a cross-cutting issue for different sectors in health, agriculture, livestock, education, etc. and climate change is no exception. Climate change is expected to cause increased crop losses, widespread food and water insecurity, malnourishment and negative health impacts1. Women are much more affected and susceptible to severe malnourishment, particularly in low-income groups. In fact, women aremore sensitive to vulnerable actions posed by climate change in terms of needs, opportunities, access to resources, etc. due to the differences that exist in social settings of varied cultures and norms, particularly among the poorest of the poor in thedeveloping countries. In rural areas, 72% of men and women are affected due to climate change impacts as they all depend on agriculture which is one of the most vulnerable sectors. In such situations, there is a profound need to include social issues with women in the forefront of climate change debates, policies for them to be heard and seen2. With growing concerns on climate change and its impacts affecting food production and livelihood structure, a strong need to integrate gender perspectives into climate change discussions is highly warranted. To add further to the discussion and reinforce learning, some issues related to gender are presented here that have relevance to planning and design of climate-resilient agriculture.

关键词： 农业适应行为   影响因素   环境影响   政策建议  

摘要： 自20世纪80年代以来,如何制定本国的农业气候变化适应政策,引起学术界的广泛关注。在分析各国现状和农业适应行为进展的基础上,梳理了农业适应行为研究的主要方法和模型,总结了目前对中国农业适应行为的研究成果,并提出了中国的农业适应政策建议。研究表明:社会认知因素对农户是否会采取行动至关重要,未来气候变化对中国3大粮食作物总体上是负面影响,中国应该利用发达国家的资金和技术支持,开展地区性适应项目的研究,促进现代农业的持续健康发展。

关键词： 华北平原   适应气候变化技术   农业   集成创新体系  

摘要： 适应气候变化技术的集成创新是应对气候变化的必要途径。以我国重要的商品粮生产基地——华北平原为例,分析了气候变化对华北平原农业的影响,提出华北平原农业适应气候变化的技术集成创新体系,包括:单一目标的农业适应技术集成体系,多目标综合的农业适应技术集成体系,多部门综合的农业适应技术集成体系和因地制宜的分区农业适应技术集成体系等;讨论了适应的不确定性、适应需求的差异性以及适应技术集成创新能力。最后指出,我国应对气候变化亟需开展不同领域适应气候变化技术的集成创新研究,构建不同部门适应气候变化技术的集成创新体系,使各种单项和分散的技术成果得到集成,从而建立完善的适应气候变化技术的集成创新机制。

关键词： 人工防雹效果   统计检验   雷暴日数   降雹日数   雹灾面积  

摘要： 采用青海省东部农业区1961—2010年6—9月雷暴日数、降雹日数及雹灾面积资料,利用气候变化趋势分析、历史回归分析及显著性检验等方法,分析了近50a雷暴日数、降雹日数的变化趋势,以雷暴日数变化趋势的最优显著性拟合值为自变量预测了降雹日数的自然变化趋势,并由降雹日数趋势值与自然趋势期望值的差异显著性检验定性说明了气候变化背景下人工防雹效果,通过雷暴日数和雹灾面积的历史回归分析及显著性检验定量估计了人工防雹效果。结果表明:在自然背景也发生同样趋势性变化的情况下,降雹日数在1961—1990年没有显著的减少趋势,未能检验出显著的人工防雹效果;1991—2010年减少趋势显著,通过了0.001信度的显著性检验,人工防雹效果显著。1991—2010年青海省东部农业区平均人工防雹减灾率为52.6%,可信度为95%,但具体年份之间差异较大。

关键词： 气候变化   灾后重建   农村发展   低碳农业  

摘要： 气候变暖给农业生产带来严重影响,灾后重建如何涅磐重生、欠发达地区怎样实现经济的又好又快、可持续发展是值得研究的课题。本文通过对四川省广元市低碳经济发展状况进行实地调查,从该市的自然、经济、社会环境出发,基于大量数据和调查案例,描述了广元市发展低碳农业的现状,总结了发展低碳经济的做法与成效,提出了"低碳广元"对我国欠发达地区发展低碳经济的启示与借鉴。

关键词： 气候变化   张掖市   生态环境   河西走廊中部   农业   地貌单元   地形地貌   地理位置  

摘要： 位于甘肃省河西走廊中部的张掖市,南靠祁连山,北邻龙首山、合黎山,南北两山夹峙,中间形成一南高北低、东南向西北倾斜的狭长平川,由高山、中低山和走廊平原三大主要地貌单元组成,由于特殊地理位置和地形地貌的影响,气候复杂多变。20世纪我国气温上升了0.4℃～0.5℃,以冬季西北、华北。

关键词： 农业发展   气候变化   东南亚   生产力水平   气温升高   地球变暖   降雨量  

摘要： 研究表明，因气候变化所致的降雨量增加和气温升高会令东南亚农业受益，而先前的推测大多认为地球变暖将降低该地区农业生产力水平。

关键词： 中国   预警技术   灾害预测   农业气象   气候变化   气象灾害   自然灾害   灾害种类  

摘要： 中国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一,灾害种类多,分布地域广,发生频率高,造成损失重。中国自然灾害中70%为气象灾害,由于农业生产基础设施薄弱,抗灾能力差,对气象条件的依赖程度高,致使中国每年因各种气象灾害造成的农作物受灾面积达0.5亿hm2以上,影响人口达4亿人次,经济损失高达2000多亿元。

关键词： Food security   Nonfiction  

摘要： The article reviews the book 'Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security in Latin America,' by Hector Maletta and Emiliano Maletta.