关键词： 资料   气候变化   农业影响   对策  

摘要： 本文通过嘉荫农场气候资源的变化,对农业生产有利和不利的因素,应按照气候变化的实际情况,趋利弊害合理利用气候资源提出了相应的措施。

关键词： 气候变化   干旱   流域   农业受旱率   天然径流  

摘要： 选择我国主要江河流域区,利用1956～2007年计52年的天然径流和农业受旱率资料、VIC模型和水量平衡模型模拟的A1B情景下3种气候模式(NCAR、CSIRO、MPI)基准期1961～1990年、预测期2009～2060年水资源量系列,利用Matlab建立径流量与农业受旱率的关系模型,预测了我国未来农业受旱率并分析了未来干旱变化趋势。

关键词： 全球气候变化   农业生态系统   中国   国家自然科学基金   国际合作项目   气候变化影响   人类活动影响   应用系统  

摘要： 当今全球气候变化已经成为所有人都在经历的不争事实，农业则是对气候变化影响最为敏感的部门之一。日前完成的“全球气候变化和高强度人类活动影响的中国农业生态系统承载力研究”．是国家自然科学基金——国际应用系统分析研究所资助的重大国际合作项目，其研究成果指出了中国农业在气候变化背景下所面临的机遇和挑战。

关键词： Climate change   Climate impacts   Agriculture   Bangladesh   Rice   Wheat   Crop modeling   DSSAT   Floods   Sea level rise   Adaptation  

摘要： Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, bora, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

关键词： CLIMATIC changes   AGRICULTURE   GREENHOUSES   EFFECT of human beings on climatic changes   EDITORIALS   TROPICS  

关键词： Climate change   Agricultural reservoir   Water storage requirement   Land use change   Growing season  

摘要： Agriculture is directly affected by climate conditions and changes. It is necessary to understand the effects of climate change on agricultural water resources and to minimize its negative effects in order to achieve stable and sustainable crop production. Climate change affects not only crop water requirements but also various aspects of rice cultivation systems, including cultivation land and crop-growing season. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climate change on the water requirements of agricultural reservoirs using a reservoir water-balance model that includes climate change data, the paddy rice growing season and changes in land use. The results showed that due to increasing temperature, transplanting and heading dates were delayed 5-25 days and 0-10 days, respectively, in comparison to the baseline. The average decreasing rates of irrigation water requirements (IWRs) in eight districts were 7.0% (2025s), 9.2% (2055s) and 12.9% (2085s). The major causes of this decrease in IWRs were crop evapotranspiration and percolation followed by a shortened growing period. The average decreasing rates for yearly maximum water storage requirements in all reservoirs were 19.1% (2025s), 23.1% (2055s), and 26.9% (2085s). The decrease in rates could be the result of IWR and increasing watershed runoff (average 10.7% to 27.0%). The results of this study can be used to estimate the capacity and capability of agricultural water resources. Our results also contribute to the establishment of countermeasures against possible risks and the development of policies for future agricultural water management. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Social limits   Social barriers   Adaptation   Acceptability   Agriculture   Farmers   Adaptive capacity  

摘要： This study examined how the terms used to describe climate change influence landholder acceptability judgements and attitudes toward climate change at the local scale. Telephone surveys were conducted with landholders from viticultural (n = 97) or cereal growing (n = 195) backgrounds in rural South Australia. A variety of descriptive and inferential statistics were used to examine the influence of human-induced climate change and winter/spring drying trend terms on adaptation responses and uncertainties surrounding climate change science. We found that the terms used to describe climate change leads to significant differences in adaptation response and levels of scepticism surrounding climate change in rural populations. For example, those respondents who accepted human induced climate change as a reality were significantly more likely to invest in technologies to sow crops earlier or increase the amount of water stored or harvested on their properties than respondents who accepted the winter/spring drying trend as a reality. The results have implications for the targeting of climate change science messages to both rural landholders and communities of practice involved in climate change adaptation planning and implementation. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change   Adaptation   Kenya   Agriculture  

摘要： Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future wellbeing. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 上海市青浦区   气候变化特征   农业生产影响   适应措施   冬小麦   水稻   生产潜力  

摘要： 为了分析气候变化背景下上海市青浦区的气候资源变化特征及其对农业的影响,应用数理统计分析方法分析了青浦区1961—2010年的气象资料,并利用农业生态区模型(AEZ)模拟了过去50年内青浦区冬小麦和水稻的气候生产潜力变化趋势。结果表明:青浦区的年平均气温呈明显上升趋势,增温速率为0.39℃/10年,其中夜间气温增幅较大,高温日数在近10年增幅明显;相对湿度在前40年呈现波动变化并略有下降,在近10年内呈现先降后升趋势;年降水量略有上升,降水日数略有下降;日照时数的下降较明显。气候变化对青浦区农业生产的影响主要表现为水稻的气候潜在产量呈现持续降低的趋势;冬小麦则处于波动变化的状态,在前30年减少,在近20年则出现一定的回升。研究提出了农业适应气候变化的措施。

关键词： 气候变化   气象灾害   农业发展  

摘要： 农业易受气候变化影响,气候变化及其引发的极端天气事情对中国农业发展造成的危害有日益加重的趋势。因此,应对气候变化已经成为我国农业发展面临的主要挑战之一,被列为我国政府保持我国农业持续稳定以及我国农业和农村经济持续发展的重要战略任务。文章从分析气候变化情况及其对农业气象的影响入手,分析了气候变化对中国农业发展的可能影响,并提出了农业应对气候变化的政策措施。