关键词： 气候变化   气象灾害   农业发展  

摘要： 农业易受气候变化影响,气候变化及其引发的极端天气事情对中国农业发展造成的危害有日益加重的趋势。因此,应对气候变化已经成为我国农业发展面临的主要挑战之一,被列为我国政府保持我国农业持续稳定以及我国农业和农村经济持续发展的重要战略任务。文章从分析气候变化情况及其对农业气象的影响入手,分析了气候变化对中国农业发展的可能影响,并提出了农业应对气候变化的政策措施。

关键词： Adaptation   agricultural land use   climate change   crop-technology bundles  

摘要： This article proposes a proactive approach for analyzing agricultural adaptation to climate change wherein agricultural production technologies are regarded as potential targets of research and development (R&D) efforts. We develop a structural land-use model wherein farmers maximize profit by allocating their land among crop-technology bundles. Proactive R&D directions are derived by identifying the technological attributes through which climate change reduces overall agricultural profitability, despite farmers reallocating their land into bundles. We find that in Israel, long-term losses stem from increases in crops' input requirements and changes in the inter- and intra-annual distribution of precipitations. Therefore, we identify these vulnerable points as the main potential targets of further R&D efforts.

关键词： Agriculture   Agro-meteorology   Adaptation   Food Security   Climate change   Climate model  

摘要： Agro-meteorological metrics are indicators of weather determined environmental conditions on which agricultural management decisions are made. Metrics derived from an estimated future climate provide an opportunity to characterise the impacts of climate change on a wide range of agricultural systems, land use practices and ecosystem services. Such indications are vital for determining how changes in the biophysical environment can lead to land management and policy adaptations to achieve multiple objectives of financial viability, food security, biodiversity conservation and environmental sustainability. They provide valuable links between probable management adaptation responses and capacity for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are large uncertainties associated with projected future climates, including the climate models' spatial scale of representation and those at which agro-meteorological metrics are applied. This paper describes the estimation of agro-meteorological metrics derived from observed weather and downscaled Regional Climate Model projection data for 12 sites in Scotland. Results show that projected changes to seasonal rainfall distribution, growing season length, soil moisture deficits and accessibility will be substantially different from the present climate. Fundamentally, the metrics indicate a substantial shift in land management requirements and potential need for substantial changes in agricultural systems and land use that will have implications across a wide range of research disciplines. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Impacts   Adaptive capacity   Adaptation   Vulnerability   Climate change   Saline agriculture   Community   Participatory  

摘要： Climate change is affecting agricultural production and is expected to continue reducing water availability, potentially necessitating adaptation adjustment by related sectors to maintain sustainability of saline land use system highly vulnerable to water shortages. The drought in 2010 impacted the salt-affected land use system of the coastal region in Jiangsu Province, China. The main purpose of this paper is to determine which systems are least adaptive, and what factors limit their adaptive capacity to drought, among three typical saline land use systems of Jinhai farm located in the coastal reclamation region of north Jiangsu Province. An analytical framework for analyzing climate impacts and adaptation for saline agriculture is presented. To better understand climate change impacts and the adaptive capacity of saline land use systems, we conducted semi-structured interviews and group discussions with representatives of surrounding households and the farmer on Jinhai farm, experts and officials from government sectors and institutes. From these conversations two impact indicators were picked up and a set of determinants for adaptability and their rankings were derived. There is considerable variability in climate change impacts among different saline land use systems and a concentration of impacts on paddy systems. Adaptability in addition to climate change is cumulative to the impacts, particularly unsafe water resource planning, irrational land use mode and crop arrangement, and defective institutions and policies. Our results highlight the importance of a comprehensive and integrative land development planning involving water resource and land use arrangements participated in by representatives of stakeholders. Although there has been much progress in streamlining climate change assessments into sector planning in Dafeng - such as water resources, agriculture, beach and so on - it is clear that there is a need to improve institution, policy, market guidelines

关键词： Climate change   Agricultural production   Simulation   Environmental conditions   Food supply  

摘要： The susceptibility of agriculture to changing environmental conditions is arguably the most dangerous short-term consequence of climate change, and predictions on the geography of changes will be useful for implementing mitigation strategies. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a technique used to relate presence records of species to environmental variables. By extrapolation, ENM maps the suitability of a landscape for the species in question. Recently, ENM was successfully applied to predict the geographic distribution of agriculture. Using climate and soil conditions as predictor variables, agricultural suitability was mapped across the Old World. Here, I present analogous ENM-based maps of the suitability for agriculture under climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Deviations of predicted scenarios from a current conditions model were analyzed by (1) comparing relative average change across regions, and (2) by relating country-wide changes to the data indicative of the wealth of nations. The findings indicate that different regions vary considerably in whether they win or lose in agricultural suitability, even if average change across the entire study region is small. A positive relationship between the wealth of nations and change in agriculture conditions was found, but variability around this trend was high. Parts of Africa, Europe and southern and eastern Asia were predicted to be particularly negatively affected, while north-eastern Europe, among other regions, can expect more favorable conditions for agriculture. The results are presented as an independent "second opinion" to previously published, more complex forecasts on agricultural productivity and food supply variability due to climatic change, which were based on fitting environmental variables to yield statistics.

关键词： abiotic stress   Arabidopsis thaliana   climate change   genome-wide association (GWA)   natural variation   plasticity   quantitative trait loci (QTL)   recombinant inbred lines (RILs)  

摘要： Twenty-first-century agriculture faces the challenges of providing sufficient calories and nutrients to feed a growing human population despite climate change, increasing competition for freshwater from human and industrial use, and limited arable land. This review summarizes current knowledge concerning quantitative trait loci (QTL) and natural allelic variants in Arabidopsis that regulate tolerance of abiotic stresses associated with population pressure and climate change, including rising temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, drought, salinity, and mineral ion limitation and toxicity. Examples of genetic variation underlying phenotypic plasticity of abiotic stress responses are also discussed. Given the extensive resources available in Arabidopsis for QTL analysis and genome-wide association studies, along with unparalleled information on gene/gene product functions and interactions, this reference plant species provides powerful resources for translational biology approaches to improve stress tolerance and yield in crop species.

关键词： 气候变化   农业   作物生育期   气象灾害  

摘要： 在全球气候变暖的大背景下,河北省气候正在发生较为显著的变化。近年来,气温升高、降水减少、干旱加重,给当地经济发展和农业环境造成了很大影响。因此,了解河北省气候变化规律,明确作物生育期气候与旱、涝、冻等灾害变化特征及其对作物生产的影响,对指导本地农业生产、提高防灾减灾能力、促进河北省农业持续稳定发展具有重要参考意义。 本文利用河北省72个气象观测站1961-2010年各站逐日气象资料、河北省30个农业气象观测站作物发育期观测资料以及119个县冬小麦、春玉米、夏玉米种植区历年单产资料。采用线性趋势、EOF分析、小波分析等统计方法,对河北省50年来气候变化规律及对主要农作物的影响进行了分析。结果显示：河北省年平均气温分布呈现自西北向东南升高的趋势,升温趋势系数大多在0.1-0.5℃/10a之间,北部升温趋势大于南部,尤其西北部地区大部升温趋势都在0.3℃/10a以上。河北省年降水量呈减少趋势,各季变化不同,春季为增加趋势,夏季呈明显减少趋势,秋、冬季变化趋势不明显；降水量存在一定的周期变化,不同时段周期尺度有所差异,总体是大、中、小多种周期尺度相互嵌套存在；日照时数从作物的各个生育期来看,都呈现减少趋势,但不同的区域日照在减少幅度和减少趋势的显著性等方面存在一定的地区差异。其中北部和中部减少幅度较大,东北部和南部减少幅度相对小。小麦越冬前大于0℃积温及发育期、返青后积温及生育期、玉米生育期内0℃以上积温、10℃以上积温总的分布呈自北向南增加的趋势。小麦越冬前积温、返青后积温东北部和北部增加最多,中部增加最少。而玉米生育期内0℃以上积温、10℃以上积温东北部增加最多,南部增加最少。 河北省旱涝总体上呈阶段性变化趋势,20世纪90年代后期和80年代为相对少雨阶段,80年代以轻早为主,90年代后期比较严重的干旱频繁出现,20世纪70年代和90年代前期为相对多雨阶段,90年代后期旱涝变率最大,80年代变率最小。不同季节旱涝变化特征不同,春夏季旱涝呈现出一定的阶段性,21世纪初10a夏季主要表现为持续干旱阶段；秋季干旱较轻；冬季旱涝年际间变化大。旱涝空间分布特征主要为全区一致型、南北相反型、东西相反型和中部与南北相反型等四种,全区一致型是最主要形态。冬小麦不同生育期不同级别干旱发生频率不同,全生育期中旱出现频率最高,严重干旱频率最低；播种出苗期严重干旱发生频率最高,中旱频率最低。拔节-抽穗期中旱发生频率最高,轻旱最低：灌浆-成熟期重旱发生频率较高,其次是轻旱。 冬小麦各生长期不同级别干旱大多呈现减少趋势,全生育期和拔节抽穗期重旱减少显著,其它级别变化不显著。播种期和成熟期干旱变化趋势不明显,对未来生产影响不大；拔节抽穗期中旱和重旱呈减少趋势,重旱减少显著,有利小麦生产。 冬麦区冻害南部发生少、北部多。各区域均呈显著减少趋势,北部减少趋势最大。冻害频率与小麦单产有较好反相关关系。42%的年份出现倒春寒,年均发生范围12%；90年代平均出现范围最大。倒春寒对小麦生产的影响程度远远大于冻害。

摘要： Iowa finds itself positioned at the epicenter of agricultural pollution due to the intensity of crop and livestock production, fertilizer inputs, altered hydrological landscapes, and other factors. To address such issues, the overarching objective of this research work was to understand the implications of an expansion in bioenergy crops as mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency's Renewable Fuel Standard 2 (through 2022) on hydrology and water quality in an agricultural watershed. In this research, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated using field data obtained through water quality sensors and grab samples, and then model parameters were estimated for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Scenarios were generated based on Renewable Fuel Standards and evaluated for understanding the impacts of expanding bioenergy production on hydrology and water quality. Also output from an agent-based model was incorporated into SWAT for simulating watershed responses to different crop market scenarios. Finally SWAT model output under eighteen scenarios, was generated for six different climate models and analyzed to see changes in various water quantity outputs e.g. surface flow, base flow, and ET. The SWAT Model was calibrated and validated within statistically acceptable limits e.g. R2 > 0.85 of observed monthly hydrologic mass and R2 > 0.7 for nutrients loads. Sediment load was reduced by 15% due to conversion of corn acreage into switch grass on high elevation land with a slope of >5% (roughly 12% of the watershed). Model simulations also showed that linear climatic inputs (i.e. linear temporal trends increase in precipitation and max/min air temperature) can generate non-linear responses amongst different components of the water cycle (i.e. surface flow, base flow, ET, and deep percolation rates) in the watershed model. This research effort will help to produce a prototype Intelligent Digital Watershed (IDW) to understand the intera

关键词： Climate variation   Crop production   Perception   Adaptation   Tradition   Benin  

摘要： Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to assess the local communities' perception of climate variation effects on crop production and the adopted strategies by farmers in order to cope with the negative effects of climate on the agriculture in the coastal zone of Benin. Design/methodology/approach - A total of 290 agricultural households were sampled and surveyed through structured interviews. The principal component analysis (PCA) was performed on the relative frequencies citation of perceived climate variation indication in order to describe the relationship between risk perceptions according to socio-demographic characteristics. The relative frequency of citation was calculated according to age, gender, ethnic group and agro-ecological region. Findings - Results showed that almost 83 per cent of the respondents already perceived the climate change risks through several indications. Climate variation perception varied with respect to age. Respondents' opinion regarding climate variation causes depended generally on their age, religion and level of education. As far as climate variation risks impact on crop production is concerned, the respondents' opinions diverged. Originality/value - The assessment of local communities' perception is important to design participatory and sustainable measures to cope with harmful effects of climate variation on crop production.

关键词： 可持续发展   水权   水资源管理现代化   水循环   水法  

摘要： 目前，中国经济社会正在发生着深刻变化，社会主义市场经济体制初步建立，经济结构进行战略性调整，经济增长方式加快转变，综合经济实力及人均收入均有显著提高。我国在经济快速增长的同时也消耗了大量资源，人与自然的矛盾日益突出。过度开发水资源、以粗放方式发展经济的后果不断显现。而全球变暖的态势更加剧了上述问题的严重程度，增加了未来水资源利用的不确定性和风险。面对严重的水资源形势，我国政府把解决水资源问题摆上重要议事日程，强调水是基础性自然资源和战略性的经济资源，把建设节水型社会作为解决中国水资源问题最根本的战略举措，积极采取行动进行一系列相关政策改革。目前的实际情况是种植业用水的效益最低，可恰恰使用了最多的水量，高开采成本的深层地下水被大量用于低价值的作物灌溉，这与水价值理念反差甚大。 解决公共河流资源所面临的问题以及管理和保护好水资源，需要从社会学的角度来研究水资源的保护问题，从供给取向转向供给与需求相结合的取向，即在关注供给短缺的同时也要注意节制需求，建立水资源需求管理，建构节水型的社会;在运用工程技术解决问题时，要结合社会学和环境影响的评价。 水环境的状况关系到气候的变化。自然的蒸发和气候的变化虽然可能影响河流的流量，但绝对不会在一个较短的历史阶段内直接导致河流的干涸和断流，因为如果人类在生产和生活中能根据降雨量和河流流量的大小来限制自己从河流中的取水量，如果没有人类行为的介入和影响，那么河流总可以保持有最低限度的或安全线内的流水。 环境问题已成为全球所关注的严重社会问题，环境保护成为世界各国都极为重视的公共事务。同样，环境保护问题也是中国社会在发展过程中所面临的挑战性问题。而在环境保护问题中，最为突出的和最重要的问题，可能是水资源危机以及水资源的可持续利用和保护问题。水是人类生存所必需的资源，水资源是否得以合理开发、利用和保护，直接关系到水对人类生存和生活的利与害：清洁的水有利于人类生活，而污染的水则给人类带来灾难;水量过多或过少，就会相应地带来洪涝或干旱等灾害。因此，这就要求人类能科学合理地保护和利用水资源。 在以往关于水资源问题或水利问题的认识和研究中，人们把较多的注意力停留在工程技术的层面上，这是受那种“人定胜天”或科学主义观念支配和影响的结果。在对待水利问题和水资源保护问题上，人们对中国传统的“天人合一”观念中所包含的人文主义精神没有给予足够的重视。其具体表现就是对水问题的人文社会科学研究相对滞后，对重大水利工程和水资源管理的制度供给存在严重不足现象，工程解决机制与社会解决机制存在不协调的现象。 以往侧重以工程技术解决水资源问题的策略，某种意义上仍是通过再分配的机制来缓解资源稀缺问题，然而这一途径并没有从根本上解决资源短缺和生态的平衡问题，相反可能会进一步加剧生态的危机。由此表明，水环境问题不是一种简单的技术问题，而是复杂的社会问题。探讨水资源的合理开发、利用和保护，需要从技术和社会等多方面因素中寻找合适的路径和策略。 中国的水资源危机不仅十分突出，而且已经成为经济增长和现代化进程中的根本性制约因素。由于水资源观念落后，涉水行为失当，水资源管理效率低下，造成水资源的巨大浪费，更加重了我国的水资源危机。制度因素是造成水资源危机的根本性原因，政府缺位造成水资源产权模糊，市场缺失造成水资源滥用，计划失效造成水资源配置混乱。中国水资源问题的根源并不是缺少工程技术措施，而是没有建立起促进节水和治污等先进、高效、优良技术大规模应用的制度框架。 通过有效的制度安排，为人们在水资源利用与合作方面提供一个基本框架，以此规范人们的经济关系并对人们的用水行为进行监督，引导经济主体的外部利益内在化，提高水资源的利用效率和保护水环境。设计水资源安全性制度的基本思路是要组成一个以水资源产权制度为核心，水资源统一管理制度为前提，水权交易与水资源市场制度为基础，水资源价格制度为手段，水资源法律监督制度为保障，水资源文化制度为条件的完整的水资源制度体系。