关键词： 气候变化   农业影响   适应措施  

摘要： 在宁夏农业领域应对气候变化的8项适应性技术措施中选取20项目标技术措施,以增强农业适应气候变化为目标,通过层次分析法评估分析各项技术可接受性与可持续性的权重,分别提出宁夏农业适应气候变化的接受性强和可持续性强的优选对策及适应性最优方案。结果表明:种植结构调整、保护性耕作和土壤改良技术是最容易接受的三项措施,灌溉技术、绿色农业和优良品种是可持续性较强的三项措施;最优适应性方案是采用喷灌、温室、良种良法配套、关键技术指导结合土壤改良、调整种植结构、绿色农业下的目标层技术措施。

关键词： barley   carbon dioxide   case studies   climate change   crop production   crop yield   insect pests   maize   nitrogen balance   plant pests   potatoes   wheat   winter wheat   yield components   Hordeum vulgare   insects   Leptinotarsa decemlineata   Ostrinia nubilalis   Solanum tuberosum   Triticum   Triticum aestivum   Zea mays   Central Europe   Europe   Developed Countries   European Union Countries   OECD Countries   Hordeum   Poaceae   Cyperales   monocotyledons   angiosperms   Spermatophyta   plants   eukaryotes   Leptinotarsa   Chrysomelidae   Coleoptera   Hexapoda   arthropods   invertebrates   animals   Ostrinia   Pyralidae   Lepidoptera   Solanum   Solanaceae   Solanales   dicotyledons   Zea.   Pyralidae   Zea   Chrysomela decemlineata   Chrysomelidae   Triticum   Crop Production   Solanum tuberosum   Insecta   Ostrinia nubilalis   Zea mays   Leptinotarsa   nitrogen balance   Hordeum   Barley   Ostrinia  

摘要： The present study investigates regional climate change impacts on agricultural crop production in Central and Eastern Europe, including local case studies with different focuses in Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The area studied experiences a continental European climate and is characterized by strong climatic gradients, which may foster regional differences or trends in the impacts of climate change on agriculture. To study the regional aspects and variabilities of climate change impacts on agriculture, the effect of climate change on selected future agroclimatic conditions, crop yield and variability (including the effect of higher ambient CO2 concentrations) and the most important yield limiting factors, such as water availability, nitrogen balance and the infestation risks posed by selected pests were studied. In general, the results predicted significant agroclimatic changes over the entire area during the 21st century, affecting agricultural crop production through various pathways. Simulated crop yield trends confirmed past regional studies but also revealed that yield-limiting factors may change fromregion to region. For example, pest pressures, as demonstrated by examining two pests, are likely to increase due to warmer conditions. In general, higher potentials for cereal yield increase are seen for wetter and cooler regions (i.e. uplands) than for the drier and warmer lowlands, where yield potentials will be increasingly limited by decreasing crop water availability and heat under most scenarios. In addition, yield variability will increase during the coming decades, but this may decrease towards the end of the 21st century. The present study contributes to the interpretation of previously conducted climate change impact and adaptation studies for agriculture and may prove useful in proposing future research in this field.

关键词： Food security   Negative Binomial regression   Poisson regression   Sahel belt   West Africa  

摘要： The Sahel belt of West Africa is high vulnerability to poverty and hunger, especially during periods of drought and other climatic adversities. This paper analyzed the impacts of gender role in agriculture and climate change exposure on monthly food shortages. The data were collected by the the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) from 281 farmers from Burkina Faso and Mali using multi-stage sampling procedures. Descriptive statistics, Poisson regression and Negative Binomial regression were used for data analysis. The results show that average food cropland owned were 9.0227 and 2.8266 hectares in Mali and Burkina Faso respectively while 58.87 percent and 24.29 percent of the farmers indicated that men did most of the works in raw food production. Also, 24.11 percent and 43.57 percent of the households noticed more erratic rainfall in Mali and Burkina Faso, respectively, while 16.31 percent and 36.43 percent reported less overall rainfall. The regression results showed that owned grazing land, more frequent flood, reduction in ground water level, men dominances in cash crop production, fruit production and vegetable production significantly increased the log of months with shortage due to cash (p<0.10), while community grazing land, more overall rainfall, household size, business cash income, men dominances in fodder and large livestock production significantly reduced it (p<0.10). It was concluded that recognition of the contributions of women to food production in the Sahel can facilitate a process for understanding and devising livelihood strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

关键词： Agricultural land management   Adaptation to climate change   Crop modeling   Regional optimization   Multi-objective  

摘要： In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0-10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25-35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30-45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

关键词： 辽宁省丹东地区   气候变化   农业生产  

摘要： 因暴雨变化和气候暖化，辽宁省丹东地区的农业生产出现了较大变化。喜温高产的玉米和水稻种植面积扩大，高产种植品种不断增加。由于播种期提前，粮食产量不断上升。只有认真分析丹东地区气候波动情况，了解气候变化对农业生产的影响，才能保证丹东地区农业作物优产、高产。

关键词： 发展中国家   农业   气候变化   制约   需求  

摘要： 本文综合国际层面对发展中国家农业适应气候变化的相关研究成果,并选取孟加拉国、柬埔寨、刚果(布)、埃塞俄比亚、乌干达、赞比亚等亚洲和非洲发展中国家为例,重点从资金、技术和能力建设3个方面对发展中国家农业适应气候变化所面临的制约因素和实际需求进行了梳理和分析,以期为中国乃至国际社会与有关发展中国家开展农业适应气候变化领域合作提供基础性借鉴和政策性参考。

关键词： 全球气候变化   农业生态系统   国家自然科学基金   国际合作项目   气候变化影响   人类活动影响   应用系统   研究成果  

摘要： 当今全球气候变化已经成为所有人都在经历的不争事实，农业则是对气候变化影响最为敏感的部门之一。日前完成的“全球气候变化和高强度人类活动影响的中国农业生态系统承载力研究”，是国家自然科学基金——国际应用系统分析研究所资助的重大国际合作项目，其研究成果指出了中国农业在气候变化背景下所面临的机遇和挑战。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   技术开发   农业气象   农业行业   青年科学家   专项经费   田间试验  

摘要： 国家公益性行业（农业）科研专项经费项目“气候变化对中国农业生产的影响及应对技术研究”，于2009年9月启动，先后持续5年。项目首次从国家层面组织农业科学界开展气候变化与农业生产的田间试验、观测研究和应对技术开发研究，集聚了来自我国农业与气候变化优势单位的作物学、耕作学、植物保护、土壤学、水资源、农业气象、生态学等30位年富力强的中青年科学家和农业行业岗位技术专家群体，项目专题研究覆盖水稻、小麦、玉米、大豆等主要谷类作物种植业，棉花、油菜、柑橘、苹果等经济作物种植业，以及奶牛、生猪、蛋鸡等养殖业，还另设气候变化下农业资源（气象、水和耕作制度）演变专题研究、气候变化对农田过程及作物生产的综合性影响专题研究。

关键词： Albedo   CO2   Greenhouse gas   Methane   Nitrous oxide   Radiative forcing  

摘要： Land-use change between forestry and agriculture can cause large net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), and the respective land uses associated with forest and pasture lead to different on-going emission rates of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and different surface albedo. Here, we quantify the overall net radiative forcing and consequent temperature change from specified land-use changes. These different radiative agents cause radiative forcing of different magnitudes and with different time profiles. Carbon emission can be very high when forests are cleared. Upon reforestation, the former carbon stocks can be regained, but the rate of carbon sequestration is much slower than the rate of carbon loss from deforestation. A production forest may undergo repeated harvest and regrowth cycles, each involving periods of C emission and release. Agricultural land, especially grazed pastures, have much higher N2O emissions than forests because of their generally higher nitrogen status that can be further enhanced through intensification of the nitrogen cycle by animal excreta. Because of its longevity in the atmosphere, N2O concentrations build up nearly linearly over many decades. CH4 emissions can be very high from ruminant animals grazing on pastures. Because of its short atmospheric longevity, the CH4 concentration from a converted pasture accumulates for only a few decades before reaching a new equilibrium when emission of newly produced CH4 is balanced by the oxidation of previously emitted CH4. Albedo changes generally have the opposite radiative forcing from those of the GHGs and partly negate their radiative forcing. Overall and averaged over 100 years, CO2 is typically responsible for 50% of radiative forcing and CH4 and N2O for 25% each. Albedo changes can negate the radiative forcing by the three greenhouse gases by 20-25%. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 农业   气候变化   适应政策  

摘要： 气候变化是21世纪全球面临的严重挑战之一,农业是最易遭受气候变化影响的产业。通过对欧盟、美国及澳大利亚在农业领域对气候变化适应政策的研究分析,提出对中国农业适应气候变化的启示。