关键词： 气候变化   农业灌溉需水   石羊河流域   主成分回归分析法  

摘要： 根据石羊河流域气象资料，使用主成分回归分析法分析灌溉需水与各种气象要素之间的关系；采用降水气温增量情景法，研究作物生育期灌溉需水的变化。结果表明，在现有种植面积和种植结构下气温每升高o．5℃时，灌溉需水量增加1957．24万m3；降水增加10％，灌溉需水量减少2566．24万m3。根据政府间气候变化专业委员会（IPCC）气候模式模拟预测结果，2015年流域灌溉需水量增加3479．17万m3，2025年增加（4975．15～5636．21）万m3。2050年增加（6582．07～7627．19）万m3。大多作物灌溉需水受气温的影响最大，其次为风速、湿度、降水和日照时数；各作物灌溉需水与气温降水呈线性关系。

关键词： 气候变化   长白山地区   农业   影响   通化  

摘要： 本文在介绍通化市农业发展现状的基础上。统计得出通化市1953-2012年气候变化特征，深入分析了气候变化对通化市农业发展的影响，并提出应对措施。

关键词： 辽宁省丹东地区   气候变化   农业生产  

摘要： 因暴雨变化和气候暖化,丹东地区的农业生产出现了较大变化。喜温高产的玉米和水稻种植面积扩大,高产种植品种不断增加。由于播种期提前,粮食产量不断上升。只有认真分析丹东地区气候波动情况,了解气候变化对农业生产的影响,才能保证丹东地区农业作物优产、高产。

关键词： 气候变化   新疆   农业   影响  

摘要： 近50年来,新疆气候变暖、降水增多的趋势明显。1961-2010年,新疆年平均气温升温速率为0.32℃/10a,高于全球和全国同期变化水平,冬季升温趋势最明显。2001~2010年是近50年中最暖的10年。1961~2010年,新疆年降水量明显增加,增加速率为6.51%/10年。夏季增加趋势最明显。1991~2010年是近50年中降水最多的20年,同时新疆极端天气、气候事件频发。气候变暖使新疆农业热量资源更为丰富,农作物潜在的适宜生长季延长,两年三熟的种植区域可能北移扩大;使棉花的播种期提早,全生育期延长,产量提高;而冬小麦的播种期推迟,全生育期缩短。冬季温度升高,利于冬小麦、特色林果等安全越冬。但是气候变暖背景下新疆极端天气、气候事件频发,气象灾害造成的农牧业损失加大。

关键词： agriculture   greenhouse gases   adaptation   climate change   food production  

摘要： With the human population predicted to reach nine billion by 2050, demand for food is predicted to more than double over this time period, a trend which will lead to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. Furthermore, expansion in food production is predicted to occur primarily in the developing world, where adaptation to climate change may be more difficult and opportunities to mitigate emissions limited. In the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), ensuring that food production is not threatened' is explicitly mentioned in the objective of the Convention. However, the focus of negotiations under the Convention has largely been on reducing GHG emissions from energy, and industrial activities and realizing the potential of forestry as a carbon sink. There has been little attention by the UNFCCC to address the challenges and opportunities for the agriculture sector. Since 2006, concerted efforts have been made to raise the prominence of agriculture within the negotiations. The most recent The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and The Emissions Gap Report' by the UNEP highlighted the significant mitigation potential of agriculture, which can help contribute towards keeping global temperature rises below the 2 degrees C limit agreed in Cancun. Agriculture has to be a part of the solution to address climate change, but this will also require a focus on how agriculture systems can adapt to climate change in order to continue to increase food output. However, to effectively realize this potential, systematic and dedicated discussion and decisions within the UNFCCC are needed. UNFCCC discussions on a specific agriculture agenda item started in 2012, but are currently inconclusive. However, Parties are generally in agreement on the importance of agriculture in contributing to food security and employment as well as the need to improve understanding of agriculture and how it can contribute to r

关键词： Adaptation   Agricultural sector   Climate change   Smallholder farmers   Sri Lanka  

摘要： The vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability is increasingly rising. As agriculture is the only source of income for most of them, agricultural adaptation with respect to climate change is vital for their sustenance and to ensure food security. In order to develop appropriate strategies and institutional responses, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the farmers' perception of climate change, actual adaptations at farm-level and what factors drive and constrain their decision to adapt. Thus, this study investigates the farm-level adaptation to climate change based on the case of a farming community in Sri Lanka. The findings revealed that farmers' perceived the ongoing climate change based on their experiences. Majority of them adopted measures to address climate change and variability. These adaptation measures can be categorised into five groups, such as crop management, land management, irrigation management, income diversification, and rituals. The results showed that management of non-climatic factors was an important strategy to enhance farmers' adaptation, particularly in a resource-constrained smallholder farming context. The results of regression analysis indicated that human cognition was an important determinant of climate change adaptation. Social networks were also found to significantly influence adaptation. The study also revealed that social barriers, such as cognitive and normative factors, are equally important as other economic barriers to adaptation. While formulating and implementing the adaptation strategies, this study underscored the importance of understanding socio-economic, cognitive and normative aspects of the local communities.

关键词： Central America   Paleoclimate   Eutrophication   Diatoms   Tectonic activity   Lake depth  

摘要： Lake Nicaragua, the largest lake in Central America, is a promising site for paleolimnological study of past climate change, tectonic and volcanic activity, and pre-Columbian agriculture in the region. It is near the northern limit of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which brings the rainy season to the tropics, so effects of decreasing precipitation due to southern migration of the ITCZ through the Holocene should be observable. Because fault zones and an active volcano lie within the lake, the long-term impact of tectonic and volcanic activity can also be examined. Finally, the fertile volcanic soils near the lake may have encouraged early agriculture. We analyzed diatoms, biogenic silica (BSi), total organic carbon (TOC), water content, volcanic glass, and magnetic susceptibility in a sediment core from Lake Nicaragua with eleven accelerator mass spectroscopy radiocarbon dates, spanning similar to 5,700 years. Sediment accumulation rates decreased from the bottom to the top of the core, indicating a general drying trend through the Holocene. An increase in eutrophic diatom abundance suggests that pre-Columbian agriculture impacted the lake as early as similar to 5,400 cal yr BP. Above a horizon of coarser grains deposited sometime between similar to 5,200 and 1,600 cal yr BP, planktonic diatoms increased and remained dominant to the top of the core, indicating that water depth permanently increased. Although magnetic susceptibility peaked and water content dipped at the coarse horizon, volcanic glass fragments did not increase, suggesting that the coarse horizon and subsequent increase in water depth were caused by tectonic rather than by volcanic activity. Decreased accumulation rates of BSi and TOC indicate that water became clearer when depth increased.

关键词： Ganga Plain   River morphology   Climate change   Hydrological uncertainty   Food inflation   Mitigation and adaptation strategies  

摘要： Agriculture consumes more than two-thirds of global fresh water out of which 90 % is used by developing countries. Freshwater consumption worldwide is expected to rise another 25 %by 2030 due to increase in population from 6.6 billion currently to about 8 billion by 2030 and over 9 billion by 2050. Worldwide climate change and variability are affecting water resources and agricultural production and in India Ganga Plain region is one of them. Hydroclimatic changes are very prominent in all the regions of Ganga Plain. Climate change and variability impacts are further drying the semi-arid areas and may cause serious problem of water and food scarcity for about 250 million people of the area. About 80 million ha out of total 141 million ha net cultivated area of India is rainfed, which contributes approximately 44 % of total food production has been severely affected by climate change. Further changing climatic conditions are causing prominent hydrological variations like change in drainage density, river morphology (tectonic control) & geometry, water quality and precipitation. Majority of the river channels seen today in the Ganga Plain has migrated from their historic positions. Large scale changes in land use and land cover pattern, cropping pattern, drainage pattern and over exploitation of water resources are modifying the hydrological cycle in Ganga basin. The frequency of floods and drought and its intensity has increased manifold. Ganga Plain rivers has changed their course with time and the regional hydrological conditions shows full control over the rates and processes by which environments geomorphically evolve. Approximately 47 % of total irrigated area of the country is located in Ganga Plain, which is severely affected by changing climatic conditions. In long run climate change will affect the quantity and quality of the crops and the crop yield is going to be down. This will increase the already high food inflation in the country. The warmer atmospheri

关键词： Buffer capacity   Resilience   Climate change   Adaptation   Conservation agriculture   Kenya   Africa  

摘要： Building resilience to climate change in agricultural production can ensure the functioning of agricultural-based livelihoods and reduce their vulnerability to climate change impacts. This paper thus explores how buffer capacity, a characteristic feature of resilience, can be conceptualised and used for assessing the resilience of smallholder agriculture to climate change. It uses the case of conservation agriculture farmers in a Kenyan region and examines how their practices contribute to buffer capacity. Surveys were used to collect data from 41 purposely selected conservation agriculture farmers in the Laikipia region of Kenya. Besides descriptive statistics, factor analysis was used to identify the key dimensions that characterise buffer capacity in the study context. The cluster of practices characterising buffer capacity in conservation agriculture include soil protection, adapted crops, intensification/irrigation, mechanisation and livelihood diversification. Various conservation practices increase buffer capacity, evaluated by farmers in economic, social, ecological and other dimensions. Through conservation agriculture, most farmers improved their productivity and incomes despite drought, improved their environment and social relations. Better-off farmers also reduced their need for labour, but this resulted in lesser income-earning opportunities for the poorer farmers, thus reducing the buffer capacity and resilience of the latter.

关键词： 富碳农业   气候变化   粮食安全   能源危机   困难立地   碳排放   农业工厂   光伏光热   太阳光光导纤维   LED   半埋式车间  

摘要： 当前,全球大气、水资源、耕地污染情势严峻,气候、粮食、能源安全已成为经济发展的主要制约因素,发展新能源投资大,收效甚微,我国城镇化建设阻力重重。本文提出,工业生产的低碳化和农业生产的富碳化可能是解决目前全球所面临的气候变化、粮食安全和能源危机和困难立地四大近代难题的办法。富碳农业既可利用碳资源节能减排,消纳碳资源,改变日益突出的气候问题,又可以促进相关工业生产,改变一个农业大国生产方式和生活方式,造福人类,是我国现代化新兴农业必由之路。文章通过对几种重要科学技术进展的分析,提出一种依托太阳能光电光热的应用的模式,结合人造光源、气肥、光导纤维、地热等近代技术,使用困难立地大规模地营造封闭式的模拟远古时代的小区域富碳气候,达到超传统的作物的光合作用的高效,在消化大量碳排放的同时,抵抗各种恶劣气候,减少对水源的依赖,增加农业收成,实现农业生产工业化。