关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   对策   影响   临夏  

摘要： 简要综述了近年来气候变化对临夏州农业生产的影响,着重分析了干旱、寒潮、霜冻、低温冻害、连阴雨对农业生产影响,并提出了相关对策。

关键词： 气候变化   气温   降水量   日照时数  

摘要： 为了分析文登近30a来的气候变化情况对农业生产的影响,针对1981—2010年的年平均气温、年降水量、年日照时数三个气象要素进行统计分析和线性趋势分析。结果表明,文登1981—2010年的年平均气温明显升高、气候变暖趋势明显;年降水量不均,但总体呈增多趋势,干旱、洪涝等气象灾害明显增多;年均日照时数总体变化趋势略有下降,但不明显。农业生产面临的问题日益严峻,应及时调整种植抗旱、耐涝作物,加强农业病虫害防治工作。

关键词： cash crops   export markets   potato   roads   swidden  

摘要： Interviews with elderly farmers and a review of government data, policies, and programs reveal that farmers in the Bumthang District of Bhutan have transitioned from cultivating a diversity of subsistence grains through swidden farming with no external inputs in the 1980s to intensive monocropping of potatoes utilizing fertilizers and tractors in 2011. During the same time, household diets changed from locally cultivated buckwheat and barley to make greater use of purchased rice. The primary underlying driving forces noted by farmers for the changes were improved road and market access, and government prohibitions against swidden agriculture. Farmers also stated that climatic conditions have changed;however, temperature and precipitation data do not reveal significant change, although the variability of mean monthly precipitation has increased. Understanding the site- and time-specific ways in which farmers respond to underlying forces is essential to the identification and development of effective agricultural policies, research, and development.

关键词： 气候变化   农业影响   适应措施  

摘要： 在宁夏农业领域应对气候变化的8项适应性技术措施中选取20项目标技术措施,以增强农业适应气候变化为目标,通过层次分析法评估分析各项技术可接受性与可持续性的权重,分别提出宁夏农业适应气候变化的接受性强和可持续性强的优选对策及适应性最优方案。结果表明:种植结构调整、保护性耕作和土壤改良技术是最容易接受的三项措施,灌溉技术、绿色农业和优良品种是可持续性较强的三项措施;最优适应性方案是采用喷灌、温室、良种良法配套、关键技术指导结合土壤改良、调整种植结构、绿色农业下的目标层技术措施。

关键词： barley   carbon dioxide   case studies   climate change   crop production   crop yield   insect pests   maize   nitrogen balance   plant pests   potatoes   wheat   winter wheat   yield components   Hordeum vulgare   insects   Leptinotarsa decemlineata   Ostrinia nubilalis   Solanum tuberosum   Triticum   Triticum aestivum   Zea mays   Central Europe   Europe   Developed Countries   European Union Countries   OECD Countries   Hordeum   Poaceae   Cyperales   monocotyledons   angiosperms   Spermatophyta   plants   eukaryotes   Leptinotarsa   Chrysomelidae   Coleoptera   Hexapoda   arthropods   invertebrates   animals   Ostrinia   Pyralidae   Lepidoptera   Solanum   Solanaceae   Solanales   dicotyledons   Zea.   Pyralidae   Zea   Chrysomela decemlineata   Chrysomelidae   Triticum   Crop Production   Solanum tuberosum   Insecta   Ostrinia nubilalis   Zea mays   Leptinotarsa   nitrogen balance   Hordeum   Barley   Ostrinia  

摘要： The present study investigates regional climate change impacts on agricultural crop production in Central and Eastern Europe, including local case studies with different focuses in Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The area studied experiences a continental European climate and is characterized by strong climatic gradients, which may foster regional differences or trends in the impacts of climate change on agriculture. To study the regional aspects and variabilities of climate change impacts on agriculture, the effect of climate change on selected future agroclimatic conditions, crop yield and variability (including the effect of higher ambient CO2 concentrations) and the most important yield limiting factors, such as water availability, nitrogen balance and the infestation risks posed by selected pests were studied. In general, the results predicted significant agroclimatic changes over the entire area during the 21st century, affecting agricultural crop production through various pathways. Simulated crop yield trends confirmed past regional studies but also revealed that yield-limiting factors may change fromregion to region. For example, pest pressures, as demonstrated by examining two pests, are likely to increase due to warmer conditions. In general, higher potentials for cereal yield increase are seen for wetter and cooler regions (i.e. uplands) than for the drier and warmer lowlands, where yield potentials will be increasingly limited by decreasing crop water availability and heat under most scenarios. In addition, yield variability will increase during the coming decades, but this may decrease towards the end of the 21st century. The present study contributes to the interpretation of previously conducted climate change impact and adaptation studies for agriculture and may prove useful in proposing future research in this field.

关键词： Food security   Negative Binomial regression   Poisson regression   Sahel belt   West Africa  

摘要： The Sahel belt of West Africa is high vulnerability to poverty and hunger, especially during periods of drought and other climatic adversities. This paper analyzed the impacts of gender role in agriculture and climate change exposure on monthly food shortages. The data were collected by the the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) from 281 farmers from Burkina Faso and Mali using multi-stage sampling procedures. Descriptive statistics, Poisson regression and Negative Binomial regression were used for data analysis. The results show that average food cropland owned were 9.0227 and 2.8266 hectares in Mali and Burkina Faso respectively while 58.87 percent and 24.29 percent of the farmers indicated that men did most of the works in raw food production. Also, 24.11 percent and 43.57 percent of the households noticed more erratic rainfall in Mali and Burkina Faso, respectively, while 16.31 percent and 36.43 percent reported less overall rainfall. The regression results showed that owned grazing land, more frequent flood, reduction in ground water level, men dominances in cash crop production, fruit production and vegetable production significantly increased the log of months with shortage due to cash (p<0.10), while community grazing land, more overall rainfall, household size, business cash income, men dominances in fodder and large livestock production significantly reduced it (p<0.10). It was concluded that recognition of the contributions of women to food production in the Sahel can facilitate a process for understanding and devising livelihood strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

关键词： Agricultural land management   Adaptation to climate change   Crop modeling   Regional optimization   Multi-objective  

摘要： In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0-10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25-35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30-45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

关键词： 辽宁省丹东地区   气候变化   农业生产  

摘要： 因暴雨变化和气候暖化，辽宁省丹东地区的农业生产出现了较大变化。喜温高产的玉米和水稻种植面积扩大，高产种植品种不断增加。由于播种期提前，粮食产量不断上升。只有认真分析丹东地区气候波动情况，了解气候变化对农业生产的影响，才能保证丹东地区农业作物优产、高产。

关键词： 发展中国家   农业   气候变化   制约   需求  

摘要： 本文综合国际层面对发展中国家农业适应气候变化的相关研究成果,并选取孟加拉国、柬埔寨、刚果(布)、埃塞俄比亚、乌干达、赞比亚等亚洲和非洲发展中国家为例,重点从资金、技术和能力建设3个方面对发展中国家农业适应气候变化所面临的制约因素和实际需求进行了梳理和分析,以期为中国乃至国际社会与有关发展中国家开展农业适应气候变化领域合作提供基础性借鉴和政策性参考。

关键词： 全球气候变化   农业生态系统   国家自然科学基金   国际合作项目   气候变化影响   人类活动影响   应用系统   研究成果  

摘要： 当今全球气候变化已经成为所有人都在经历的不争事实，农业则是对气候变化影响最为敏感的部门之一。日前完成的“全球气候变化和高强度人类活动影响的中国农业生态系统承载力研究”，是国家自然科学基金——国际应用系统分析研究所资助的重大国际合作项目，其研究成果指出了中国农业在气候变化背景下所面临的机遇和挑战。