关键词： 气候变化   农业需水   参考作物蒸散量   实际作物需水量   黄河流域  

摘要： 分析气候变化对农业需水的影响,有助于科学制定灌溉需水定额和保障农业用水安全.选取黄河流域西宁、若尔盖、兰州、银川、呼和浩特、西安、太原、孟津、济南和泰安等10个代表站,利用1951-2010年的逐月气象资料,采用彭曼公式计算多年平均作物蒸散量,分析黄河流域参考作物蒸散量时空分布变化规律,以冬小麦为代表性作物定量评价单气象要素（温度）变化对农业需水的影响程度.结果显示：多年平均参考作物蒸散量自西向东从2.49 mm/d增加至3.94mm/d,若尔盖地区最小,泰安最大;温度增加1～2℃,黄河流域多年平均参考作物蒸散量增加0.1～0.5 mm/d,增幅为3.45％～16.9％,增幅最大的为泰安站;对冬小麦而言,温度增加1～2℃,需水量增加0.1～0.55 mm,增幅最大为泰安站,增幅为11.38％～15.63％.研究结果可为区域农业灌溉和水资源高效利用提供参考依据.

关键词： 气候变化   农业产出   就业结构  

摘要： 自19世纪以来，全球气候变暖趋势越来越明显，所引起的降水、气温变化不仅在自然地理方面产生了巨大影响，还通过生活舒适性渠道及农业渠道两方面开始显著影响人类生活。虽然气候通过影响人们的生活、工作环境的舒适程度，会带来建筑、能源、健康等产业的微妙变化，但人类赖以生存的农业受气候影响更加明显，而农业产出变化又会对经济社会产生深层影响，因此农业渠道是气候影响经济的首要渠道，已有的研究已经证实了这种观点。大规模气候带来的农业收成下降，会使农民被迫迁移出原居住地，去更合适的地方进行耕作或者干脆成为产业工人，这对处于发展中阶段的我国尤其如此。 本文的目的是检验气候的农业渠道对我国经济社会的影响，我们选择农业劳动力数量作为我们的研究对象。为此本文收集了近20年的相关数据，利用气候因素作为工具变量，剔除农业收成与劳动力就业之间的内生性关系，得到农业收成影响就业变化的真实参数值，这个值也就是气候驱动下的农业收成变化影响人口就业的参数值。为了说明模型的可靠程度，我们还进行了三种稳健性检验。最后，考虑到我国领土广袤，各地区经济社会、生态环境情况千差万别的国情，我们使用虚拟变量对各地区受气候变化的敏感程度分别进行了分析。本文从缓解气候变及增强适应气候变化的能力两个角度分析如何应对气候挑战。

关键词： Policy interplay   Forests   Governance   Deforestation   Rio conventions   REDD  

摘要： There is increasing international demand by policymakers focussed on Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation for developing countries to conserve forests in the face of pressure from agriculture and energy demands. Improving forest conservation efforts requires a better understanding of how policies influence forest resources management, hence a need for better analysis of policy coherence and interaction. This study employs a content analysis of national sectoral policies in agriculture, energy and forestry, and national programmes under United Nations Rio conventions in Zambia to examine coherence and interplay between international- and national-level policies. Results show positive horizontal interplay between energy and forestry policies, while conflicts were observed between the agricultural and forestry policies despite the potential of conservation farming to provide a mutually supportive link. Policy documents show inconsistencies between national sectoral policies and national statements to the Rio conventions. Additionally, although national statements to Rio conventions share common ground on measures to address deforestation, they seem to be poorly mainstreamed into national policies and broader development policies at national level. Findings have further revealed a lack of coherence between national commitments to Rio conventions and national forest legislation. The paper concludes that although developing countries, such as Zambia, are ratifying international environmental conventions, measures are often not drafted into national policies and linkages remain largely superficial.

关键词： crop wild relatives   food security   climate change   biodiversity conservation   plant breeding  

摘要： The main objective of theAdapting Agriculture to Climate Change project is to collect and protect the genetic diversity of a portfolio of plants with the characteristics required for adapting the world's most important food crops to climate change. The initiative also aims to make available this diversity in a form that plant breeders can readily use to produce varieties adapted to the new climatic conditions that farmers, particularly in the developing world, are already encountering. Such adaptation is a key component of securing the world's future food production. This paper serves to inform interested researchers of this important initiative and encourage collaboration under its umbrella.

关键词： Agriculture/methods   Carbon/analysis   China   Climate   Climate Change   Crops, Agricultural   Environment   Environmental Monitoring   Fertilizers   Manure   Models, Theoretical   Nitrogen   Soil/chemistry  

摘要： Dynamics of cropland soil organic carbon (SOC) in response to different management practices and environmental conditions across North China Plain (NCP) were studied using a modeling approach. We identified the key variables driving SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (10 kmx10 km) and long time scale (90 years). The model used future climatic data from the FGOALS model based on four future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration scenarios. Agricultural practices included different rates of nitrogen (N) fertilization, manure application, and stubble retention. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the management practices of stubble retention (linearly positive), manure application (linearly positive) and nitrogen fertilization (nonlinearly positive) - and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative). Temperature had weakly positive effects, while precipitation had negligible impacts on SOC dynamics under current irrigation management. The effects of increased N fertilization on SOC changes were most significant between the rates of 0 and 300 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). With a moderate rate of manure application (i.e., 2000 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)), stubble retention (i.e., 50%), and an optimal rate of nitrogen fertilization (i.e., 300 kg ha(-1) yr(-1)), more than 60% of the study area showed an increase in SOC, and the average SOC density across NCP was relatively steady during the study period. If the rates of manure application and stubble retention doubled (i.e., manure application rate of 4000 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) and stubble retention rate of 100%), soils across more than 90% of the study area would act as a net C sink, and the average SOC density kept increasing from 40 Mg ha(-1) during 2010s to the current worldwide average of similar to 55 Mg ha(-1) during 2060s. The results can help target agricultural management practices for effectively mitigating climate change through soil C sequestration.

关键词： adaptation   agriculture   climate change   food security   livelihoods   Madagascar  

摘要： Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious;however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

关键词： 农业综合开发办公室   气候变化   科学技术奖励   科学技术进步   技术集成   农业开发   自治区   委员会  

摘要： 近日，宁夏农业综合开发办公室牵头完成的“宁夏适应气候变化的农业开发技术集成研究与示范”课题，被自治区科学技术奖励委员会审定，评为2012年自治区科学技术进步二等奖。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 本文主要针对鹤山农场年平均气温变化对农业生产的影响做以介绍，应充分、合理的利用当前的热量资源，进行作物品种改良和适当调整种植结构。并根据气候变化对本地气象灾害的影响，来制定和调整气象灾害防御对策和措施。

关键词： 南疆地区   极端温度   极端降雨   农业生产  

摘要： 选取南疆地区18个代表站点1961-2011年气温与降水量原始数据,用百分位阈值法分析了近51年南疆地区极高、低温和极端降水量变化趋势及其对农业生产的影响。结果表明,南疆地区近51年极高、低温和极端降雨量均呈上升趋势,增幅分别为1.7℃、4.6℃和3.7 mm,极高温增幅显著低于极低温增幅,所以温度年较差呈降低趋势(-2.8℃/51年)。南疆地区极高温发生天数增加幅度为0.8 d/51年;而极低温发生天数减少幅度为2.0 d/51年;极端降水天数增加幅度为3.8 d/51年。极端气候对南疆地区农业生产存在双重影响。极高温和极高温天数的升高导致农作物遭遇热害,生育期缩短,加剧南疆地区干旱情况;极低温的升高和极低温天数的减少有利于农作物顺利过冬和种植界限的扩展,但也会造成干旱、盐渍化的加剧及病虫草害的发生;极端降雨量和降雨天数的提高有利于缓解干旱,但农作物花期和成熟期降雨会导致坐果率和果实品质的下降。

关键词： 气候变化   影响与适应   农业系统   CO2  

摘要： 通过对政府间气候变化专门委员会第二工作组(IPCC AR5 WGII)的报告《气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性》有关涉农章节的解读,分析有助于国内外农业气象学科发展的科学问题,并提出进一步研究的优先领域。IPCC认为,如果不考虑适应,局地温度比20世纪晚期升高2℃或更多,对热带和温带地区主要作物产量(小麦、水稻和玉米)都将产生负面影响。预计的影响随作物、区域和适应情景而不同。约10%的研究结果预测2030-2049年比20世纪晚期可能增产10%,也有10%的研究结果则预测减产25%以上。对比国内有关气候变化对农业影响评估的研究,反映的差距主要集中在:(1)农业系统对气候变化敏感程度和脆弱性的定量评估能力较弱;(2)难以识别气候对农业的直接和间接影响程度;(3)综合研究不够,还不能定量分析各种非气候因素的贡献;(4)适应对策实例和经验总结不够,有关的成本效益分析不够。建议本学科优先在以下领域进一步深入研究:(1)更新并完善粮食生产影响模型,建立区域和全球尺度的、可靠的、综合的粮食系统模型;(2)进一步认识CO2与臭氧对作物生长的综合影响程度,高温和低温对作物的影响,以及干旱和洪涝的生理阈值;(3)开展与各种变暖情景有关的粮食生产实验和模拟,包括作物、家畜、渔业、水果和蔬菜等生产要素以及加工、分配及零售和消费模式等非生产要素的气候影响和适应。